Is it time to move on positively after Brexit?

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

The following article appeared in the Times today (hopefully the share token has worked properly)::

The pain of Brexit isn’t as bad as I’d feared

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-pain-of-brexit-isnt-as-bad-as-id-feared-9n58bgcs5

This is written by the Britain editor of the Economist, one of the most ardent pro EU journals.

In it, inter alia, Emma Duncan admits that a mere 7,600 financial service jobs have moved from London to another European capital because of Brexit and that the BOE is now forecasting a post COVID bounce back of 7.25% to our GDP.

Of course, the article has many caveats about what might yet happen, but also some explanation as to why the U.K. might be far more resilient than she (and most ardent remainers) feared.

Absolutely - Negativity is draining.

Yes. There are issues to be resolved that affect individual lives and businesses.

The Jersey govt has the right approach. Sit down with the French fisherman and thrash out what the issue is, face to face.

Face to face pragmatism instead of endless political manoeuvring and bitterness.

Brexit + Covid hasn’t hit the economy yet.

If you’re expecting all the people whose jobs, businesses, personal lives have already been negatively impacted by Brexit to ‘move on positively’ I suggest you get a grip.

7600 is a lot of jobs in one industry and includes 43% of financial service firms.

£1.3 trillion in assets has been moved to the EU. On Jan 4th £6 billion a day shifted to Paris & Amsterdam, followed by chunks of Euro swaps.

@TatianaBis,

Yes, of course, if you have been personally affected, it will be hard to 'move on' until you have got a new job etc. My post was about people in general.

All economic effects take time to fully manifest but you really cannot say that Brexit 'has not hit the economy yet' four years after the vote and several months after the actual exit. Some effects might take longer to occur but other short term effects will be mitigated in the medium term.

What do you actually mean by the numbers in your last paragraph, and where are they from? Have £1.3 trillion assets actually physically moved? I find that hard to believe. Or, do you mean, financial assets have changed registration, which means little? And, as for Euroswaps, the numbers always sound huge, but they have little meaning. The returns are probably, on average, a fraction of a basis point per swap.

And 7,600 jobs out of 1 million jobs is definitely not a lot, it is 0.76%.

All in all, I feel it is you who needs to 'get a grip', not me.

But that is people in general. And we have all, every single one of us, lost rights.

How odd, why would you find that hard to believe? The city consistently warned it would happen and then it happened.

The £6 billion a day is share trading daily, not Euro swaps in particular. Don’t have a figure for the value of Euro swaps yet.

Loss of passporting has meant that firms must part relocate to the EU. A brass plate is not enough, staff, operations and assets must also be moved.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-finance-idUSKCN2AU006

The majority have moved on surely?

The majority now want to move on from Covid never mind Brexit, it is old old news now for the average person on the street.

I'll never stop being angry about Brexit. Not because of economics, which will sort themselves out in time, one way or another. But the loss of the relationship, free travel. I loved the UK as part of the EU and feel the loss keenly.

@TatianaBis,

One thing financial services are top quality at is lobbying.

So, we lose 6billion of share trading per day. But exchanges typically charge less than 1bp per trade. So, 6 billion amounts to an actual £600,000 per day or £100 million/annum in total (tops). Or about 1/25th of what Amazon alone makes in profit..,perspective is everything.

Of course, better to keep it than lose it, but not really material for an economy like ours.

Feeling angry for the rest of your life is a shit way to live, I wanted to remain, we lost, we need to adapt and move on.

@CloudPop,

I just don’t get the travel thing.

I have travelled all over the World in my lifetime. I have never even considered whether we were in a customs Union before travelling. Paris in spring time was awash with Americans pre Covid.

It will be annoying for very short trips, although I suspect the EU/U.K. will sort out very rapid electronic checks soon for frequent travellers.

We are not at war with the EU. Most of the EU are very keen to welcome U.K. tourists and the money they bring with them.

Yes, cannot deny minor inconvenience for travellers and, as things stand, big problem for second home owners. But angry forever about a few minutes longer queue at passport control?

No, I will never move on. I am angry, embarrassed and ashamed that we did this to ourselves. I hate what it says about us as a country and I am fed up of trying to explain it to people from other countries
In fact Brexit hasn’t affected me Financially and due to circumstances we will/have already actually make money from it so it’s not out of self interest that I hold this view
And for anyone saying just leave I will but it’s more difficult thanks to Brexit.

It's not about the passport queue. It's the principle of us saying, we don't want to be on your team anymore. We are better than you and don't care what it costs to prove this point. Better together in my view. I realise you and many others don't share it, I just think we lost a lot and really dislike the isolationist, insular behaviour Brexit has exposed and encouraged.

I have property in the EU. Brexit directly impacts me in terms of;
Cost, Access and Beurocracy.
There are no benefits for me personally.
But it has happened, its not going to go away, and it does me absolutely no good moping about it.
Hence I have moved on and accepted it.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@TatianaBis,

One thing financial services are top quality at is lobbying.

So, we lose 6billion of share trading per day. But exchanges typically charge less than 1bp per trade. So, 6 billion amounts to an actual £600,000 per day or £100 million/annum in total (tops). Or about 1/25th of what Amazon alone makes in profit..,perspective is everything.

Of course, better to keep it than lose it, but not really material for an economy like ours.[/quote]
An economy like ours that is dependent on the financial sector 7% of our economic output.

All the financial services lobbying of the government fell on deaf ears.

You can think something is a shit idea and a real mistake without “moping” about it. The good ship Brexit has only just cleared the harbour walls, and just 20 weeks into its journey our headlines were saying that we’re ready for war with our closest neighbour. The real ramifications will be ongoing over the next decade, and once you take away the blind optimism, the benefits are few and we’re left in a weaker, more precarious situation. Imo the negatives are real and stacking up by the day. Fishermen and those in Northern Ireland spring to mind but there will be many more people who will also be thrown under the bus over the coming years. That’s my feeling, not that it counts for fuck all, but I’m not moping thanks very much.

I’m not moping about it but nor will I ‘move on positively’ just because some women are confrontation averse.

If you fuck up the country be prepared to own it and be called on it for a long time to come.

@TatianaBis,

Your last post re financial sector is a classic of non engagement and lobbying.

I respond to your 6 bio/day point with rational evidenced argument and you come up with an entirely unrelated point.

A lot of that 7% is domestic, which we will never lose. A recent report also says that, although some jobs have been lost (which is not in dispute), the impact is not nearly as bad as feared and many have recently increased head count.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06193/

I'm not moping about it but as a disenfranchised Brit abroad I feel the negative consequences everyday. I'm not going to start thinking it was a good idea. And it's not true that we have already had all the negatives and the only way is up - far from it. Universities are really still very much feeling the effects of not being part of the EU team and that is only getting worse.

I think people have moved on in real life. The remain voters I knew seem to have accepted it and are getting on with life - little changed. There's a tendency to look down on the Commission in my line of work and you still get a bit of that but only in passing and far less than before we left.

So you're saying Brexit isn't that bad (so not a positive) we should just suck up any pain and slap on a smile and be happy about Brexit?

Does that apply to the people of NI as well?

lonel

Doesn't matter if you or anyone else negatively affected, suck it up, or rather 'move on positively'. Leave voters are happy and they're the only ones who matter (apart from fishermen and the DUP, and Leave voters in Spain etc). And as for peace in NI, nobody gives a shit.

I moved on two years ago by leaving the country. I don't regret a thing, especially after the election results in December and this week.

The UK is a basket case and on a very dark path. It will end with the break up of the union, and god knows what else. It'll get worse before it gets better, since the Tories are there to stay for probably at least another decade, while being utterly corrupt and unaccountable. That's banana republic territory.

TheLeadbetterLife
I agree, but they won the culture war and accurately reflect the populations views unfortunately.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@TatianaBis,

Your last post re financial sector is a classic of non engagement and lobbying.

I respond to your 6 bio/day point with rational evidenced argument and you come up with an entirely unrelated point.

A lot of that 7% is domestic, which we will never lose. A recent report also says that, although some jobs have been lost (which is not in dispute), the impact is not nearly as bad as feared and many have recently increased head count.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06193/[/quote]
What were you so desperate for me to say that I did not?

£100 million a year is an awful lot of money to be minimizing.

I’ve no idea what you think ‘domestic’ means in a global economy. Nor why you are presenting a government report as anything but spin.