Westministenders: Unilateral Ignoring of WHO rules

[RedToothBrush]

Where we are:

On 1st January the EU started to apply checks on all goods from the UK coming into the Union.

However the UK decided to take a slower route to this, and planned that on the 1st April the UK we would be carrying out Sanitary & Phytosanitary paperwork for animal and plant EU imports like meat and eggs.

Then on 1 July we'd implement a full customs check on all goods arriving into the UK from EU member states.

Obviously we've struggled with exports as we weren't ready for this and its fucked business. But ultimately the import side of things has yet to hit the shit fan still.

It sounds like there is likely to be issues with imports of food in particular, so there is talk of delaying our plan of checks until later in the day. There is concern that the reopening of pubs and restuarants which will up demands of imports occuring at the same time as checks are put in place is likely to be 'problematic'.

Remember we get 2/3 of fruit, veg and cheese from the EU. And half our wine. And to date these largely have only been affected by haulage issues NOT UK customs issues...

You might want to keep that in mind.

squid4 - you're absolutely right, they're delaying the checks although as that is unilateral that might be challenged but dh is just concerned that we've been running down the stockpile and that if we build it up again gradually (as I did last year), then it is easier and has less of an impact on our weekly budget.

Plus running the stockpile down has shown just how quickly we go through some things - so how much more we need of certain items to be an effective stockpile

Squid
They cannot delay the checks
because to do so is a breach of WTO rules
and risks pissing off other countries - like China and the USA

The EU will force them to bring the checks in
it will be a shambles
and stockpiles will be needed

I have to hope that the House of Lords shreds the Criminalising normal Life bill into teeny tiny pieces.

THey have their COVID / hybrid rules sussed so are functioning much better than the HoC

@ListeningQuietly

Squid They cannot delay the checks because to do so is a breach of WTO rules and risks pissing off other countries - like China and the USA

The EU will force them to bring the checks in
it will be a shambles
and stockpiles will be needed

I have to hope that the House of Lords shreds the Criminalising normal Life bill into teeny tiny pieces.

THey have their COVID / hybrid rules sussed so are functioning much better than the HoC

Really!? (about the checks coming in anyway)

I bow to your knowledge on this.
I assumed they would "get away with it" (obv disaster for british companies, but avoid the empty shelves headlines, & the gaslighting that brexit was Greeeat would continue)

Why is this thread so slow? Are people giving up on commenting, because everything is so unrelentingly grim?
Have I missed comments on the new Bill which will mean that people can be sentenced for 10 years in prison for attending a noisy protest?

Article and thread from March 12th:

Sam Fleming (FT) @Sam1Fleming
Some EU capitals have held informal discussions looking at levers the bloc could pull if relations with the UK continue to worsen.
via @financialtimes

www.ft.com/content/d19633e3-5f6c-4924-a06d-3553c0f2fee3
EU capitals weigh tougher response to UK’s Brexit ‘provocations’

Also March 12th:

Bruno Waterfield @BrunoBrussels
^It is going to get a lot worse - especially if (as is distinctly possible) the EU blocks a vaccine shipment to UK this April or May
Invidious comparisons between Britain and EU on vaccine roll out is becoming a major factor and will make inevitable Brexit friction worse^

Dynamic hard to break
UK government talks up success on vaccination procurement and roll out to play down impact of Brexit failures - especially on customs systems & absence of deals on food
There was always going to be friction but real, avoidable problems now exposed

Meanwhile perceptions that Britain is doing better on vaccines is driving some EU capitals a bit nuts while London is rubbing their noses in it
Resentment is poisoning the post TCA and NI protocol way beyond expected friction

As we saw on Jan 29 when EU almost introduced customs controls on Irish land border to potentially block Pfizer jabs travellling from Grange Castle plant in Ireland to UK. Crazy

What is depressing has been the failure of both sides to talk to each other - BOTH sides
A key moments this year, the phone has not been picked up

Vaccine tensions are not going to go away. Supply problems in q2* could well be worse as mass vaccinations across Europe rolled out. This crunch will come as Brexit tensions peak in April on Northern Ireland with UK decision to unilaterally suspend (albeit limited) checks

*Supply bumps are inevitable given the time scale, production is a real triumph of science & industry, but squeeze has been compounded by decision to outsource procurement to EU (now generally recognised as too slow) leading to the loss of critical months

Now distinctly possible the rancour is now about to spill into other interactions between EU & UK. If it happens it will represent a huge failure of diplomacy for both sides, neither of which has covered itself in glory this year

And today:

Bruno Waterfield @BrunoBrussels
Today Von der Leyen has threatened to trigger Art 122 powers to grab vaccines from UK - easy triggered in the 1970s oil crisis

Emergency powers to ensure “Europe’s fair share” of vaccines could include (as briefed by officials) export bans, the seizure of factories and overriding patents on the Oxford-AstraZeneca jabs

"All options are on the table. We are in the crisis of the century and I'm not ruling out anything for now because we have to make sure Europeans are vaccinated as soon as possible," she said in reference to art 122

She said EU no longer prepared for vaccines made in the Europe to be exported to Britain while Europe faces shortages - to trigger emergency treaty clause allowing quasi-wartime powers

1. Talk of trading with countries which do not meet EHCR standards is not going to endeer us to the EU.
2. This is the same EU with 17 countries which have halted the AZ vaccine and have millions of AZ vaccines sitting in warehouses...
3. The UK has to have a certain supply now because we are tied into 12 week windows for those who have already had their first vaccine.
4. Its the under 50s who are going to be screwed by this and this could well become problematic if there is some sort of restriction introduced. There are a sizeable number of implications.

Also there's growing concern that when the shops do reopen there is going to be fuck all in them because of supply issues (covid, brexit and china container related) and this is going to mean it will have an impact on the economy as a hope for boom won't materialise...

(I will not be going shopping until I have my first dose of vaccine. I suspect there will be a fair number of fellow minded individuals who will prefer to hand on - believing they are just about to get their turn - potentially for things to go tits up).

Any delays to vaccines, mean the likelihood of another wave goes up considerably.

@Cuesday

Why is this thread so slow? Are people giving up on commenting, because everything is so unrelentingly grim? Have I missed comments on the new Bill which will mean that people can be sentenced for 10 years in prison for attending a noisy protest?

TBH, I feel it was so bloody inevitable and it was part of what was warned against pre-election and pre-referendum.

I'm kind of all out of 'i told you so's'.

This hard right of the tory party do not believe in democratic principles or human rights. I may have said this until my fingers practically bled.

Not sure what else can be said. This government have an 80 seat majority.

There are two ways to change this - mass civil unrest (post lockdown is going to get interesting) and a new election (which is some years away).

I would say that bringing in such strong anti-protest legislation gives you a pretty big clue as to government anxiety over what happens when the Brexit cat in out of the bag and the Covid shit hits the fan and whether they think mass protests are going to be an ongoing issue over the next few years.

Just because you make it illegal to protest, it does not stop protests. It just means how protests even up playing out gets messier and more unpleasant.

It won't help the Tory age demographic issue...

I wonder whether the Scottish question has anything to do with what looks, potentially, rather like a ban on protests? How will the Scottish police deal with pro-independence demonstrations?

@Seventrees

I wonder whether the Scottish question has anything to do with what looks, potentially, rather like a ban on protests? How will the Scottish police deal with pro-independence demonstrations?

The police only are able to apply the law by the consent of the people.

Do the people consent to these laws?

If there are enough people who do not, it all falls down.

The police have limits to their ability to police through sheer lack of numbers.

This is why the police did not enforce nor try to enforce many of the Covid Regulations to the letter.

If you ended up with wide spread civil unrest, would you draft the army in?

The law can only discourage protest, but if feelings are running so high and people feel they have nothing to lose, you hit a problem.

You get revolutions when you start to hit thirty percent unemployment for a reason.

We have many ingredients which could lead to a perfect storm. At this point, I don't think I'm in the camp thinking it will happen, but I'm keeping an eye on how things progress over the next few months or so.

Mass civil unrest is definitely not off the table is as far as I go.

I have friends who were at the Battle of the Beanfield.
We may be old but we've been vaccinated so are happy to gather and protest

The vaccine situation Europe wide is really difficult, especially juxtaposing the EU's potential "vaccine grab", God just wait for the headlines if it happens (!) with the current non use of millions of doses of the AZ vaccine in the EU. Around 10% vaccination rates in the largest EU nations is well behind the best performers worldwide. Big implications I agree, Red summarised this v. well i think.

Aside from the vaccine supply issues I think there could also be issue of confidence in the vaccine (AZ specifically and potentially wider) which unless it is resolved quicky could have knock on effects for second dose takeup. If that takes hold, and I hope it doesn't, the overall efficacy of the programme (including in the UK) will be reduced.

Norway and Iceland have also wobbled on AZ
not sure why
but the world has gone mad IMHO

I very much agree with your last two posts Red.

The Government is shit scared of either Scottish Independence protests, or potential anti-Brexit protests, hence rushing the legislation through. But we have to remember that enough people either have to support a regime or at least be indifferent to what they are doing. In the end Communism in E Europe collapsed because enough people weren't prepared to go along with the system anymore.
We are not yet there in the UK.

I wish they would cut the crap on the vaccine issue. Neither side have covered themselves in glory.

However, it's very difficult for a non-medical person to know what is safe and what isn't. If the WHO declares the AZ vaccine safe enough (no vaccine being 100% safe) then that will be good enough for me.

No drug is 100% safe but covid is far more dangerous than the vaccine(including to the young). Even if AZ rarely causes blood clots (no good evidence of this yet), Covid causes blood clots regularly. Have seen young people arrest and die with covid related blood clots, really upsetting cases, I'm just one doctor and have seen several, so they are not rare

However pausing to investigate possible vaccine issues, whether right or wrong, is not the same as banning and the delirious UK headlines are stupid

Somewhere like Aus with zero community transmission the risk/benefit of vaccines is different to the west where lots of people are dying of covid daily

I am grateful and amazed we have so many effective vaccines in such a short time. The competition is incredibly irritating and counterproductive. Also, the UK is sitting pretty on one of the world's worst death tolls so should be humble and apologetic and grateful, if anything

I’ve had the Pfizer vaccine and my parents have had the AZ and everyone younger in my family will have either when offered- I am very pro vaccine

This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t investigate possible issues

Really interesting post Red once again. The ability of the police to police and the relationship of this to consent is fascinating territory IMO.

Absolutely agree that the police have limits on their ability due to lack of numbers. The consent applies, IMO to both the laws themselves and the role of the police in upholding the law.

Laws made here, being enacted by a Parliament elected through a free and fair poll can be considered to have public consent. Of course, mass demonstrations indicating non consent, or mass disobedience of the law can indicate differently. The "Poll Tax" being an example I would cite.

On the Police, the consent takes 2 forms for me, first the form that most people obey the law, most of the time, and second that people recognise the authority of police officers to intervene when the law is being broken.

The crucial question I often fail to hear being asked in the "policing by consent" debate is, what happens when that consent is witheld?

@Seventrees this Bill does not apply to Scotland (is my understanding). But there is a strong chance of mass unrest when the furlough scheme finishes and the economic devastation hits home, when young people realise how many of their opportunities have narrowed under this government, when people come to terms with how in the middle of a pandemic this government have lined their pockets and caused more people to die than anywhere else in the world, when people understand that we are now beefing up our position as a nuclear power, when people understand that Brexit did not have to mean this Brexit ....

Then again, nothing might happen because enough people decide to doff their hat at their local landowner and cry three cheers for King Boris when the pubs reopen.

@Seventrees

I wonder whether the Scottish question has anything to do with what looks, potentially, rather like a ban on protests? How will the Scottish police deal with pro-independence demonstrations?

Policing is a devolved matter so the Scottish Government would need to mirror the WM legislation in order for it to apply in Scotland, or agree to a Sewel motion, which somehow I don't see happening

Of course, since Holyrood's "powers" are only there through the grace of WM , the WM Government, with its large majority, could always pass new legislation giving WM back control

....which would then turbo boost the desire for Independence

Laws made here, being enacted by a Parliament elected through a free and fair poll can be considered to have public consent.

Only up to a point. If something is a Manifesto commitment, then yes, it can be assumed that the public wanted that. So where is the manifesto commitment to crack down on public demonstrations if a small clique of Tory ministers decide they find them inconvenient?

Communism in E Europe collapsed because enough people weren't prepared to go along with the system anymore.

The final push being a government cock up, as I recall. Which doesn't augur well for this bunch of stellar incompetents.

The crucial question I often fail to hear being asked in the "policing by consent" debate is, what happens when that consent is witheld?

Ever been to Sicily ?

Quite so DGR.

@Peregrina

Laws made here, being enacted by a Parliament elected through a free and fair poll can be considered to have public consent.

Only up to a point. If something is a Manifesto commitment, then yes, it can be assumed that the public wanted that. So where is the manifesto commitment to crack down on public demonstrations if a small clique of Tory ministers decide they find them inconvenient?

This^

It was not an manifesto pledge therefore consent can not fully be assumed. It can only be suggested that a majority preferred the general Tory vision which was about tougher policing, but this was not explicit on the right to protest and the wording suggested only in terms of exisiting criminal action.

Governing by public consent can be withdrawn at any time. Not just when there is an election. Either a government can collaspe and new elections called early or you get mass unrest / revolution.

Either a government can collaspe and new elections called early or you get mass unrest / revolution.

What would be the preferred national razor ? Much as I like heads on spikes, there would be a certain appropriateness to stringing up the Hang 'em High MPs along Westminster Bridge. Earth having nothing more fair to show and all that tosh.

As a concession to humanity, it would be a long drop though.

We might have to restage for the news footage though.

Why are they beefing up their nuclear arsenal? What's the end game there?