Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

But it’s all a bit late now. The UK is a failed state, and that will gradually become more obvious. Scotland is probably going to be the first sign. That’s what happens when you alienate the working population.

Red - I do and don't agree with you with regards to Covid control and NZ . ROI has consistently managed Covid better than the U.K. - NI has been the leaky sieve. There is an opportunity for co-operation there. We have seen the the UK and ROI can co-operate - as they did with the article 16 debacle.
Zero Covid doesn't mean if you have some infections you have failed - it's having infection levels so low , that you can effectively control them and reduce flare ups. I personally think the UK is storing up huge issues with long term health conditions caused by Covid- not least the neurological ones (my MIL has Parkinson's triggered by a brain injury - this is the kind of thing we're talking about - she was v young when it happened ) - so it is something that needs to be taken very seriously.

The green issues are the Tories Achilles heel - Labour need to be saying - don't listen to what they say ..... look at what they do.....use of pesticides, burning bees and opening a huge coal mine.....not taking water companies to task over the regular discharge of raw sewage into our water ways (which happens weekly in our area)

Mayyouliveininterestingtimes
'The problem as I see it is that the constant obsession with ‘image’ is off-putting, and the reliance on focus groups is exclusionary bollix. It’s very Blairite, will only result in Labour hearing the same-old vocal London and middle class moneyed groups. Probably those with personal connections to the party or to media.'

I think the point of focus groups is precisely to reach beyond that. That's why you ask a market research group to identify and speak to a demographic you both wish to hear from and whose voices aren't necessarily easy to hear.

Perhaps, but it doesn’t work does it? Somehow the people who actually work to keep the country going manage to be totally avoided, perhaps because they’re not in any claimed (and vocally so) ‘special’ group.

I'm not sure that Starmer does passion

And I am always wary of countries / organisations that are big on flags ...

It feels like a need to bolster their self esteem - the good ol' USA being the worst offender.

Having grown up in Wales, we were and are very proud of our Welsh Dragon flag. There is a cross of St David, which could have found a place on the Union Jack, but never did.

I think with all the nationalism on display come the election it will give Welsh independence a boost, I was never a fan of the Yes Cymru movement but Im starting to get on board, no representation of Wales on the union flag is going to get very galling

Labour are going to have a massive problem soon, we have a Tory party that is no longer the conservative and unionist party in all but name taking the place of UKIP and now Labour are talking about shutting borders and the union flag so moving into to Tory party territory (of course I would say that being a screaming lefty), nevermind the fact that funding is going to become an issue, after settling the court cases and not fighting them, some of the unions are planning on/or are giving less funding to the PLP, Starmer the unity candidate (lol) is alienating a lot of younger and more engaged party members by suspending CLP's if they show support of Corbyns against his expulsion from the party, all in all its looking pretty shit for them

I'm on a dash in dash out day
BUT
I have two passports

For the currently Blue one I Pledge Allegiance to the Flag

For the soon to be Blue one I had to Swear Loyalty to her Majesty

Labour's examination of what went wrong in 2019 is pages and pages of missing the point.

The fact that Starmer whipped his MPs to vote for Johnson's deal was a devastatingly stupid thing to do.

Small mercies : no General Election due for a couple of years.

I think this story is interesting (Gove asking for extension of grace period on checks to ease NI-U.K. problems). Mainly for the way it's being handled in the press.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2A312V?twitterrimpression=true

Laura Kuenssberg, for instance, is handling it as Gove 'talking tough' to the EU, while the Reuters article is more angled on, 'Well this is another mess that needs sorting' (implicit in its neutrality).

And I suppose it mad me wonder if Gove is on manoeuvres again.

I do know that it is the Union flag not the Union jack (the jack is the sticky up bit at the bow (pointy/front end)of a ship.

This isn't correct. The Admiralty announced that the flag can be called either the Union Flag or the Union Jack in 1902. Parliament confirmed it in 1908.

www.flaginstitute.org/wp/british-flags-2/the-union-jack-or-the-union-flag/

Re Northern Ireland
twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1356876954411089921

@DGRossetti

And this is kind of where this strategy bothers me. First of all Labour are going to a branding agency in this way and are almost forcing the issue rather than it being something that is coming from the heart. Thats where i think it will fall flat on its arse.

And yet the Tories using Saatchi and Saatchi ....

And Johnson actually looks like he believes what he is told to say...

mrslaughan unless there is a cross island strategy on covid then NI / Ireland will have variant issues. The Kent strain is causing problems in Ireland. And due to Ireland having free movement with the rest of the EU it cannot fully close its borders though it may have restrictions.

Not to meantion that we still aren't NZ because we trade so frequently and easily with our neighbours and dont quarantine hauliers.

The only place in Europe where a NZ style policy is remotely viable is Iceland.

^Laura Kuenssberg, for instance, is handling it as Gove 'talking tough' to the EU,

I expect the EU's response to be a politer version of "Go F*ck Yourself."

@thecatfromjapan

I think this story is interesting (Gove asking for extension of grace period on checks to ease NI-U.K. problems). Mainly for the way it's being handled in the press.

[[https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2A312V?]]twitterrimpression=true

Laura Kuenssberg, for instance, is handling it as Gove 'talking tough' to the EU, while the Reuters article is more angled on, 'Well this is another mess that needs sorting' (implicit in its neutrality).

And I suppose it mad me wonder if Gove is on manoeuvres again.

Where does this "grace" period come from ? Goves arse ?

Gove. That the same gove who wanted to tear up the GFA? That Gove?

The only place in Europe where a NZ style policy is remotely viable is Iceland.

Currently a member of the EEA, and (I suspect) hoping the UK stays well away from that. (Which fortunately coincides with current UK policy).

Yes.

That Gove.

I just thought it was interesting that Kuenssberg was focussing on the Gove.

(LOL @ DGR.)

With focus group output we only see half the story - we don't see what question(s) / themes were given to the group against which we see the 'leaked' answers?
Complaints about wanting a vision/strategy miss the background of eg
'we want to do this - how will it go down/what do we have to spin to get it through'

and as always with leaks - what agenda are they serving?

@Peregrina

^Laura Kuenssberg, for instance, is handling it as Gove 'talking tough' to the EU,

I expect the EU's response to be a politer version of "Go F*ck Yourself."

Indeed. It's the UKs deal. The UK signed it. The UK can damn well get on with implementing it. Chop Chop.

Since discussions about Brexit have no need to be anchored to reality, what are the possibilities of getting all people in Northern Ireland to move to England (I understand some might prefer the soon to be independent Scotland) and then putting the 3 million Hong Kong citizens in the six counties ?

A scheme no less bonkers than the robot patrolled border Theresa May managed to sell to the stupid.

I think the Flags/Patriotism/Labour/Progressive debate is still ongoing on here. I think this blog post is from a year ago but it still generally rings true to my mind.

unherd.com/thepost/can-patriotism-be-progressive/

I see the gloaty leaver thread disappeared. Oh dear.

So what do you suggest Red? We don't try ? And live with a huge number of deaths a day ? A huge part of the population that develops long term neurological issues and infertility?
Not to mention we continue to create evolutionary pressures that could bring about ever more nasty variants and possibly vaccine resistant- because that's what you are advocating for , by throwing your hands in the air and saying it's impossible- we are not NZ....
Or we try and suppress as low as possible.....

And ok - if you don't want NZ - Australia..... we they closed boarders on states , which did allowed for food and trade to travel across boarders - but still worked to suppress the virus

Great post from RTB.

The bizarre thing is that Labour already has absolutely masses of data from the doorsteps that they could draw on. I doubt any other party have anything like the level of on the ground information; in our area the Labour candidate had vast teams out knocking on doors at least three times a day in the run up to the last election. I was going out every day in the last week or two - Corbyn was a big problem and people didn’t find the policies economically credible, which was hugely frustrating. Brexit came up too, people on both sides of the argument were angry with the Labour response.

The sitting conservative MP got back in with an increased majority.

I also disliked the flag in the Cool Britannia era, but I think it has become a lot more toxic and loaded since those days.

I agree a buy local /support your community and the environment would be a very good way to approach this.

So what do you suggest Red? We don't try ? And live with a huge number of deaths a day ?

We appear to be managing. We're certainly quite accepting of 100,000+

Surely if Labour wanted to showcase its patriotic credentials it should be kicking up an almighty fuss on behalf of the horny handed sons of toil aka farmers and fishermen - who literally work our land and sea - and their current Brexit related troubles.
But! They voted for the deal that’s causing said problems. So they can’t. Plonkers.