Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

Biden!

(Absolute LOL at 'Boden'. Deconstructing Boden campaigns and their narrative would be fun.)

@Violetparis

I don't really care about the flag issue, what I want to hear is what Starmer's vison for the UK is, what he thinks, what he believes in, what and who Labour stand for.

Yes. The narrative has to be there, too. And it has to be convincing.

(Which Louise touched on, too.)

loving "Boden Campaign" Agree with violetparis too about hearing what Starmer's vision is. This can be tricky territory for Labour but I do think they've made it harder than it needs to be all by themselves recently.

I think the posts about focus groups are good, makes the flag decision look shallow. I seem to be increasingly fed up with politicians on all sides at the moment.

Labour are utterly missing the point if they are still trying to win back the red wall.

@ListeningQuietly

Labour are utterly missing the point if they are still trying to win back the red wall.

Not really.
I think the purpose of a serious political Party is to try and win enough votes to form a government.
It's very hard to see how Labour are going to do that without those constituencies.
Frankly, without Scotland, it's hard to see how they'll do it with those constituents.

Icouldhavecheckedfirst 'But it also represents 2 world wars (and a world cup),' It was a (slightly) light hearted reference to the football chants of the England crowd.

I do know that it is the Union flag not the Union jack (the jack is the sticky up bit at the bow (pointy/front end)of a ship.

But my point stands. A flag stands for many things - the good and the bad about a country.

Do Americans hate the stars & stripes because of Trumps hugging the flag? So why do (some) English people hate the cross of St George or the Union flag because of the actions of some people? Culture wars continuing. No room for nuance.

Flags are for the insecure. And that is that.

This has all been about Labour.... surely you have all noticed that every time a minister appears on the news they have the Union Jack behind them?
So we can read into labours motives all we like BUT the Tories have laid down the gauntlet in terms of the Union Jack , and Labour using it as well is wise - it removes the thought that the Tories are the only ones "proud" of the country.

And I say that as someone who has been disgusted at the appearance of the Union Jack behind every minister as they conduct an interview - I am sure one was at home..... it's subtle - but I think it's taking the fight to the tories.

Cat - thanks for your posts - really insightful. I am VERY pro the Palestinian cause - but find the thought you would vote on Brexit based on how it helps the Palestinians...... well I can see why the red wall voters were lost......

One thought that struck me was how they'd managed to hold the focus groups that the consultants used to come up with this stuff? I think maybe they happened during the summer when the restrictions were less.

Someone talked about "authentocracy" on Twitter last night, i.e. authenticity is key. I sort of agree with that, in that I'd like it to be, but I'm not really sure it is. So much is advertising and messaging now. I always felt that authenticy was one of Corbyn's strongest strengths and clear messaging one of his biggest weaknesses though he did get markedly better at it personally during his time as LOTO even if the party didn't (IMO).

With Starmer his ability to communicate clearly is far better to start with but on authenticity I think he's got a way to go yet. I remember watching a Labour leadership hustings in 2015 and being surprised at how much differerence there was between Corbyn who said what he actually thought and the others, Burnham, Kendall and Cooper who I thought were mostly spinning "lines." "Professional authenticity" is a bloody difficult balancing act I'd say.

Always worth an Orwell link
www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/the-lion-and-the-unicorn-socialism-and-the-english-genius/

In England all the boasting and flag-wagging, the “Rule Britannia” stuff, is done by small minorities. The patriotism of the common people is not vocal or even conscious. They do not retain among their historical memories the name of a single military victory. English literature, like other literatures, is full of battle-poems, but it is worth noticing that the ones that have won for themselves a kind of popularity are always a tale of disasters and retreats. There is no popular poem about Trafalgar or Waterloo, for instance. Sir John Moore’s army at Corunna, fighting a desperate rear-guard action before escaping overseas (just like Dunkirk!) has more appeal than a brilliant victory. The most stirring battle-poem in English is about a brigade of cavalry which charged in the wrong direction. And of the last war, the four names which have really engraved themselves on the popular memory are Mons, Ypres, Gallipoli and Passchendaele, every time a disaster. The names of the great battles that finally broke the German armies are simply unknown to the general public.

"So, Mr. Johnson. What part of your deal don't you like ? Oh, and the answer is non ."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55913907

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for "urgent action" from the EU amid rising tensions over post-Brexit checks at Northern Ireland ports.

and ..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55845067

Post-Brexit taxes for steel 'very damaging', says Kinnock

(contd)

thecatfromjapan It's very hard to see how Labour are going to do that without those constituencies.
Frankly, without Scotland, it's hard to see how they'll do it with those constituents.

I have now copied the following into my notes, as I have to point it out so frequently

<span class="italic">I'm hoping that before they go we get electoral reform at Westminster first. To avoid a permanent Tory majority here in England.</span>

While I agree with the sentiment that the SNP would be helpful in pushing through electoral reform in Westminster (to their credit, even though it would reduce the number of Scottish SNP MPs ) how many times do I have to explain that England gets the colour of government that England votes for? 

Look at 2015: 56 SNP MPs, one solitary Scottish Conservative MP. Conservative majority. 

Or 1997: Blair won with 418 seats. Even without the 56  Scottish Labour MPs, he'd still have had a majority (330 required). 

Ironically, one of the few times Scotland has made a difference was in 1997, where the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs made the difference between May being able to form a minority Conservative Government with the support of the DUP. If she'd not had them, she'd not have been able to 

It's a commonly held fallacy that Labour "needs" Scotland in order to form a government. It doesn't.

mrslaughan

The email was fascinating. It made me realise how very important being in the EU was for the UK's international position.
I sat down and thought about the 'special relationship' with the US [which posters on this thread have often pointed out was very much about U.K. influence within the EU], about globalisation, about international relations.

So it wasn't for the Palestinians, per se. It was that email that prompted thinking, though.

It really made me realise how much power, reach and leverage the U.K. was going to lose. And how that would have a knock-on effect in all sorts of ways.

(I don't think I'm responsible for the fall of the Red Wall. 🙂)

prettybird All true - but I guess the problem is that England really does tend to vote Conservative. 😁

But ... I do think Scotland is out of the reckoning for the near future. So, pragmatically, that means winning vast numbers of seats in England.

And so welcome back to those Red Wall seats. It's just not possible to write them off as lost forever. They need to be won back.

@Prettybird Ironically, one of the few times Scotland has made a difference was in 1997, where the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs made the difference between May being able to form a minority Conservative Government with the support of the DUP. If she'd not had them, she'd not have been able to.

think you may need to change this to 2017?

thecatfromjapan just want to say I value your posts too and red and the other regulars too.

Oops - yes

...but you knew what I meant

Thinking back, I'd had a big argument/animated discussion with my parents after the 1992 election, with me despairing that we (the UK - I lived in England at the time and was still a Unionist) were doomed to Conservative governments for all time, because "Middle England" would always vote Conservative . They, with the benefit of age and their South African experience, assured me that things could change and not to give up hope.

I was back in Scotland for the 1997 election (which incidentally was the one where we were doorstepped by Nicola Sturgeon who spent 45 minutes standing in the close persuading dh to vote - for anyone - rather than just spoil his vote as he usually did) and look what happened

Re:flag it depends on how its done and perhaps more importantly the context in which its done.

There are positive and negative ways to do this and this isn't a huge departure for Labour. Once upon a time, 1997 to be exact, we had 'Cool Britannia' with the likes of Ginger Spice and her dress and Noel Gallagher with his guitar hanging out with a certain man know for his grin who wanted to move to No10...

The other way you could do it in a positive way would be a 'think local, protect the environment and jobs' kind of way. A buy british food drive. This wouldn't be flag waving in a way which invoked toxic patriotism but a sense way to encourage standards, employment and greener thinking.

I think in recent years we have associated the flag more with toxic attitudes and values. I think the St George's cross has suffered particularly from this (the union jack is seen more favourably in England but thats not necessarily true in the other nations). Football being the driver of that toxicity (it doesn't seem to exist in quite the same way for Rugby which is interesting in itself).

The challenge is to focus on it in a positive way and almost reclaim nationalism from the nationalists with a good exercise in rebranding.

And this is kind of where this strategy bothers me. First of all Labour are going to a branding agency in this way and are almost forcing the issue rather than it being something that is coming from the heart. Thats where i think it will fall flat on its arse. Cool Britannia worked because it was off the back of the spontaneous rise of Britpop and captured the mood and sentiment of the moment.

When i look around now im not really feeling the appetite for that. Maybe it will arise and start when things reboot post covid. I don't know. But how do Labour get the jump on that and take ownership of that ahead of the Tory Party? Its not as if they won't be playing that card. And Labour simply are not going to be able to compete in that space. They are not setting the agenda. They are clambering up onto a bandwagon very much in motion.

Whilst it might be trying to reverse the associations Labour had with the EU that people got in their heads over the last few years thats going to be an uphill battle when youth culture is more globally focused thanks to the internet and a significant majority of Labour supporters were proEU. I have this feeling it will backfire and look enormously contrived and patronising to those its being pitched at (inevitably older more northern voters).

I dunno. The whole thing sounds like a bit of a car crash and Labour are going to be doing the equivalent of selling in an already over crowded market an idea that so many members just simply dont believe in and have no real emotional attachment to.

Honestly what people want is hope and something they feel they can believe. You will note that Johnson is making a lot of noise about green issues. Why? Cos thats the natural space - particularly with regard to flag waving - that Labour should be moving into. Labour are behind the curve on this and the danger is that the Tories already have the jump ahead of them on the subject. Labour should be way ahead of the game on this rather than in consultation with bloody brand experts.

The environment is one of the areas where the next big political battle is. The 'rebuilding' of post brexit Britain looks set to be in this area. Covid is accelerating that.

Labour are napping. They are in danger of looking contraved, unimaginative and having no real passion for anything.

They haven't impressed me over the last couple of days, suddenly saying we should close all the borders and quarantine everyone. They didn't believe this before and they only started on the idea cos of the South African variant and only after it was bloody obvious it was already here and the polls were saying that people like the way NZ has done things. Its contraved. And neglects the glaring obvious fact, highlighted just this week, that we are not NZ because we cannot fully 'control our borders' because Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. Ive found it bullshit nationalism and opportunitism as it was obviously set up so when it transpires that the SA variant is everywhere, Labour can go 'well our position was...'. This is the third or fourth time Labour have played this trick during the pandemic and tbh it feels almost dishonest because of just how opportunistic it is.

There doesn't seem to be a single grain of genuine belief. Its all playing to the polls and taking very safe options in terms of party lines. To put it bluntly, Labour need to take a few risks and put themselves 'out there' to stop looking like a bunch of idiots afraid of their own shadow. They have to find some passion because how am i going to belief in them if they are too cowardly to have confidence in what they believe themselves?

@ListeningQuietly

Labour are utterly missing the point if they are still trying to win back the red wall.

This.

They are clueless. Starmer could do with getting its arse up north and actually listening to people.

And this is kind of where this strategy bothers me. First of all Labour are going to a branding agency in this way and are almost forcing the issue rather than it being something that is coming from the heart. Thats where i think it will fall flat on its arse.

And yet the Tories using Saatchi and Saatchi ....

The problem as I see it is that the constant obsession with ‘image’ is off-putting, and the reliance on focus groups is exclusionary bollix. It’s very Blairite, will only result in Labour hearing the same-old vocal London and middle class moneyed groups. Probably those with personal connections to the party or to media.

They need to get out more and talk to the real working people, both to hear their problems and viewpoints, and to communicate more effectively some real solutions.

Playing with image will not cut it. That’s the Tories domain now. If they were clever, they could actually start pointing that out.