Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

mrslaughan - I'm resigned to the fact that our last big family trip together, that was supposed to be to Australia last May fortunately had only had an option on the flights but hadn't paid anything might not even take place in 2022 . Which might make planning it difficult as ds graduates in 2022.

But there again, we might have more flexibility especially if ds does a Masters and we might be able to have enough time to do NZ and Oz. It will all depend on the rugby

I suspect I'm going to have to put aside more money for it though

Was it Smashy & Nicey ?

Here's some Bachmann Turner Overdrive

You ain't seen nothing yet

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/07/british-importers-brace-for-disaster-as-new-brexit-checks-loom

British firms are warning of an escalation in Brexit red tape as the government prepares to introduce a long list of new controls on imports from the European Union in April and July.

In the coming months further checks are due to be phased in at the UK border, controlling everything from the import of sausages and live mussels to horses and trees, as well as the locations these checks can take place.

So much for the Monarch staying out of politics, eh?

Somewhat ironic that the co-writer of the article in the link (proposed legislation to prevent [the Queen's] shareholdings from being disclosed to the public in 1973) also penned this article in March 2020;

EU states 'dragging their feet' over financial transparency, report finds.

Most EU member states have failed to meet a legal deadline to introduce public registers of the real owners of companies ...

The UK, which committed to comply with the directive despite leaving the EU, now provides free, searchable and bulk download access to beneficial ownership data through Companies House.

The remaining member states have either failed to create the registers, or have imposed various artificial hurdles inhibiting full public access, Global Witness found. At least one country, Greece, has legislated for notification of beneficial owners if someone has searched for their companies, raising concerns about potential “tipping off” of those under investigation by anti-corruption campaigners or journalists.

Five countries refuse access to the data unless those inquiring register their own details with an electronic identification system.

Both Portugal and Poland prevent the public from searching for a company unless they already know its tax identification number.

Eight countries have placed their registers behind paywalls, with Greece and Italy also reportedly planning to paywall their registers once they are fully up and running ...

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/22/eu-states-fail-dragging-their-feet-over-financial-transparency-report-finds

prettybird
But there again, NZ came down hard on dealing with the pandemic. Which they could because they're an island, unlike the UK

You have forgotten about Northern Ireland - which is inconveniently attached to a different island.

It's still possible to do way better than we are - there just needs to be the will. Zero Covid doesn't mean eradication- it's just keeping infections as low as possible - and therefore deaths and risk of low Covid
ROI actually have done quite well (other than Xmas) - so imagine they would welcome a agreed strategy.
But Clav given your political leanings and your ability to swear that left is actually right - I imagine you just LOVE the concept of Herd Immunity- after all it gets rid of all those pesky poor a

Sorry ...
Pesky poorer people - bonus for the conservative eugenicists

May be spin - but the statement from the palace said it was about not exposing the firms in which her maj's money was invested.
Until our politicians, who nobble legislation every day, explain where there money is invested - JRM and Sunak in particular - I'm not going to lose sleep over her maj.

Brexit dividends rolling in.....

twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1358498882116812802?s=21

Think of all that extra tax take...... oh no wait - only businesses in business pay tax 🤔

If you want to know about Disaster Capitalism and it's nuances and new economic systems may I suggest tuning into RT's Keiser Report.

Whilst the programme's intentions are to undermine 'Capitalism' and its Many Guises and mahoosively promoting cryptocurrencies, it does come up with some ideas to ponder upon.

I'm not sure where I see Brexit heading at the moment.
COVID I can see a path
either way its not cheery

Doubling down? Refute, refute, refute. Why would the RHA raise these concerns if they weren't genuine?

www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-points-raised-in-road-haulage-association-letter-to-the-chancellor-of-the-duchy-of-lancaster

I could not be bothered to read that information but I don't think I have ever seen much like it on a Government website before. Government websites used to deal in facts. They are effectively calling the people mentioned liars - I hope the said people look closely and see if they can take action against the Government.

"Ever seen much like it" I say because there was a case of a supermarket refusing someone free parking when they were only buying formula milk. That produced some hogwash about how we will make our own laws. I wrote and protested and got a sensible response back about how the legislation originated with the WHO. To which I wrote back to say why didn't they say that originally, or just say that Supermarket parking policies were up to the original supermarket to which I got no answer. But I am repeating myself here - I had a rant about that on these threads three or so years ago.

I believe the issue is selected statistics.

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) refers to trade volumes; the government refers to numbers of trucks. The fact that many of those trucks (e.g. those returning to the EU) are now empty, does not come into the Government figures.

Or....

RHA:- there is an issue with freight volumes.

HMG:- The sky is blue and the fish are happy.

--- which if Brexit was going swimmingly, none of this would be necessary.

Nor would the BeLeavers be using the vaccine rollout as a justification of why they were right to vote Leave.

Nor would threads about which other countries don't like the EU.

Nor would we see threads about how British citizens in the EU have had their lives made difficult.

Manston in kent had 17cm of snow overnight. Bet thats fun.

Just y'know reflecting...

^Just y'know reflecting...

This is referred to as albedo.....

The fact that many of those trucks (e.g. those returning to the EU) are now empty, does not come into the Government figures.

They do say;

It is an entirely normal part of freight flows to have empty lorries on the outbound leg from the UK into the EU - this has always been the case.

Indeed, estimates suggest that prior to 1 January, around 30% of all outbound lorries were empty.

This seems perfectly plausible to me. The UK has a massive trade deficit in goods with the EU - there is no way that we fill up outbound lorries with the same volume of goods as incoming lorries - particularly in winter months when we import more food from the EU compared to spring and summer months.

@Peregrina

^Just y'know reflecting...

This is referred to as albedo.....

So who is wrong here, the RHA or the government?

So the RHA are lying are they? We know that they are one group who lobbied the Government beforehand, and it seems that the Government don't like to be reminded of this.

@FatCatThinCat

So who is wrong here, the RHA or the government?

A mere commercial organisation like the RHA has to comply with a fucktonne of compliance issues and constitutional issues when it makes public statements.

The government has fuck all to comply with.

Something I permanently bear in mind when there appears to be a contradiction. It will be the government lying.

I think we need to look at the form books here - who has the best track record of lying, the RHA or the government?

Not a difficult choice to make.

@pointythings

I think we need to look at the form books here - who has the best track record of lying, the RHA or the government?

Not a difficult choice to make.

Well there is that too.

But it's worth remembering there is zero comeback on a government that lies.

Zero.

If it ever came close to a situation where they would have to actually pay the price of lying, they'd just change the law to protect them.

Which they have done in the past.

I think that despite all the evidence, there's a part of my brain which just can't accept this level of blatant deceiption.

Snow at Manston : that extreme end of East Kent often gets heavy snow.
I remember when Deal was cut off for a week with 6 foot drifts.
But the lorries and ferries kept running.

Government denting reality :
It seems very odd that they are shouting alternate facts
trying to pre deflect the shit storm that will come when the UK stops breaking WTO rules
because the UK is not applying the same border controls on arrivals from France as it is from China

Hopefully the new WTO head will remind UK Gov how things work