Westministenders: The Beginning of Negotiations

[RedToothBrush]

Transition has a few hours left.

Then negotiations start and trade stops.

Far from being over, there are huge numbers of issues that lay unresolved.

And businesses both now in the UK and EU will cease to trade with each other just because the red tape is such a pain.

So whilst people will celebrate and think things are 'done' that just shows how much people are paying attention.

It will be interesting to see people gradually realising what has been lost...

I do not believe he has lost his mind, @Sostenueto. I think this has all been deliberately planned and calculated.

All of this was predictable, and predicted, based on everything he has ever said and everything his supporters have ever said or done.

TBH there are
Threads about Trump and
threads about COVID
this one is mainly about Brexit

@ListeningQuietly

TBH there are Threads about Trump and threads about COVID this one is mainly about Brexit

And this evening, lauding the beauties of the Emerald Isle. Which is fine, but weird.

I had predicted workers rights to be gone by Easter .... I thought they might be decent enough to leave it a month or so ... but no ... 6 days! What they wanted all along

Absolutely, but we have to dig in for the long haul. So any nonsense from Johnson about being united is just that. One step at a time:
First up change of American President, who strongly identifies as Irish.
May - Holyrood elections. I expect NS to get a good win and a mandate for an Independence Reference.

BTW I notice that Johnson and the ERG have been remarkably quiet about the Gibraltar agreement. Associate membership of Schengen and not a peep out of them.

Born
TBH Buncrana is jaw droppingly lovely
and used to be easy to get to

Presumably they are already supplying the Germans and Danes. I never said there weren’t “horsey” nations in Europe. Not sure I follow the logic that losing the UK market helps them to be more profitable. If they lose “x” percentage of their turnover then I would hazard a guess they will be less profitable. How do they replace the UK trade with trade with Germany and Denmark when they are already supplying them? Odd argument.

Anyway seems to be a very Remainer 1st world problem to be angry about more expensive tack as a bi-product of Brexit. The irony of the tears over this is probably lost.

Perhaps people will move their horses to Ireland. Like the leave.eu site and JRM's hedge fund thing.

@TerryHearn turnover does not equal profit.

twitter.com/Santibuesa/status/1346946876763881473

Being unable to export your seafood doesn't lead to much profit either.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/4128213-Westministenders-Wheres-my-milk-and-cheese?watched=1

[quote Jason118]@TerryHearn turnover does not equal profit. [/quote]
No but unless the UK trade pre-Brexit was loss making i fail to see how they will be more profitable if they forgo the UK market. Strange logic.

Peregrina the Irish phrase that is translated as raining cats and dogs literally translates as 'raining cobbler's knives'. That's proper rain.

Terry You clearly have not had much experience of marketing and business. Shame because we need people who have to lead the charge to “prospering mightily” and at the moment quite a few to my knowledge are going to bugger off elsewhere.

For EU suppliers of horse equipment the business scenario pre Brexit was that they were in a position where demand for the specification plus the desirability of their brand for their goods outstripped their capacity to supply through their traditional channels, to their traditional markets, say the traditional Western Europe markets. Of course they could exploit that by putting prices up and increasing profits. However that is a short term strategy because if you increase your prices beyond the added value of your brand to the market norm which will tend to be cost plus a reasonable profit, someone will spot the chance to do it cheaper and you let new players into your traditional markets. It’s always harder to recover market position than to retain or build it so you tend to find the right sticking point.

Business scenario post Brexit is that in one part of your market, the U.K., there are added costs, and non cost barriers such sentiment - resentment that the U.K. is causing you all this hassle. It will be cheaper to create new and sustainable channels to parts of the EU market you have not targeted before, and now we have provided the motivation.

There is indeed a growing equestrian scene in Eastern Europe, especially Poland, and increasing affluence to sustain it. Not just that but Polish people are very brand conscious, status is important to the elite, more so than here where there tends to be reverse snobbery. Not hard to build new channels, they are in place and expanding.

In England at least the number of people owning horses has been contracting ever since the financial crash and austerity. People are desperately giving away (or worse) good horses that would have sold for £3k in the naughtiest.

So why stick with the increased cost of an ailing mature market when there is an expanding one further East.

@TerryHearn - No but unless the UK trade pre-Brexit was loss making i fail to see how they will be more profitable if they forgo the UK market. Strange logic.

If costs of doing trade in the UK have increased post-brexit, it may become unprofitable. Stopping trade to the UK will then result in a higher profit than continuing trade with the UK. It may be a lower profit than pre-Brexit (assuming they don't find other markets to compensate) but still better than continuing trade with the UK.

It's not really a terribly difficult concept to grasp.

It's not really a terribly difficult concept to grasp.
It obviously is for some people.

How do they replace the UK trade with trade with Germany and Denmark when they are already supplying them? Odd argument.

@TerryHearn
Because
1 - presumably a good few serious trainers and breeders will move their operations to Germany, Denmark, Austria, France, Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Ireland and other horsey places, and increase the size of the market there for gear, and
2 - developing markets in eastern Europe.

Also, growth is not the de facto reason for business. A smaller, more profitable business can often be better.

What's really odd is this Weird Angry Resentful Winner Of ToryBrexitannia, still whinging about what other countries/people use their own Sovereignty to do - whether it's make changes to their business practices, or to discuss their UnBeLeaving, and still demanding validation and headpats.

@Peregrina no - just per trip into the EU. So on entry to the EU
But many yards have a business built on being able to skip over to Portugal and Spain in winter , France/Germany in winter as well as other countries.... often taking 6 horses. I am hearing they are expecting it to be just over £500 per horse ....... so that's the competition horses.....
Then there is the trade in horses b/W Europe, UK and Ireland. For leisure and competition.....
And that's before you talk about the racing industry
@Eve the one of the two example that I heard the conversation second hand - the attitude was "Boris has fucked us" - but I am sure there are plenty think it's the big bad EU

@SabrinaThwaite

Brexit bonus of 20% VAT on a Dutch Warmblood now?

Ouch.

Indeed.....

And I know some smaller breeders and dealers are concerned about Brexit on there trade..... but I don't think generally they have much to worry about.

Terry - the breeding industry in Europe supples the world..... there is a lot of money in the horse industry in the US , and increasing British buyers have had to compete with (and found they couldn't) the Americans for the top horses from Ireland and Europe.

We will end up the poorer for it (not only in financial terms) - but hey hoo it's what you voted for.

This is only an example, but say they were making 20% profit on goods before the new rules and now their costs have increased by 20%. They would no longer be making a profit and it would not be worth selling into the UK (without increasing prices by 20%).

The amount of profit made is much more important than the turnover. A business (or market in this case) would not be viable without profit.

They were profitable before Brexit as their costs were lower. That is why they only ceased sales on 31st December.

@Jason118

It's not really a terribly difficult concept to grasp

It obviously is for some people.

I suppose if you're of the "do they not know who we are?" mindset, it would be difficult to fathom why the mere mortals in other countries wouldn't be delighted to jump through any hoops necessary for the honour of doing business with the mighty British.

Stübben not currently taking orders on its UK website.

@mrslaughan I know racing yards were being advised not to take horses into the EU during January due to all the new paperwork and possible port delays - having to pay VAT and duty on horses and providing proof that horses are free of infection and have been based in the UK for at least 40 days prior to travelling.

@SabrinaThwaite I am not surprised
I know people who regularly move horses (not racing) b/W Ireland abs the UK (dealers) who were ringing everyone to think of in that industry to see if there were ANY transporters running.
Also - and this is second hand but pretty reliable source - on top of all the paperwork - there's a 2 week quarantine (with blood tests) so dealers have to buy horses - have the capital tied up, but can't do anything with them for 2 weeks at least.
I know horses are a luxury- but this is peoples livelihoods.