Westministenders: The Beginning of Negotiations

[RedToothBrush]

Transition has a few hours left.

Then negotiations start and trade stops.

Far from being over, there are huge numbers of issues that lay unresolved.

And businesses both now in the UK and EU will cease to trade with each other just because the red tape is such a pain.

So whilst people will celebrate and think things are 'done' that just shows how much people are paying attention.

It will be interesting to see people gradually realising what has been lost...

@Jason118

Looks like Mr Johnson is not very good with bridges of any sort.

[[https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-truckers-arrive-fresh-and-well-fed-after-first-rosslare-dunkirk-sailing-1.4449238?fbclid=IwAR1DycRPoWLsI2LmTiVH3wUecCzXLN]]MZoJgs1wHZww_Y--agIwImp5W2J8g

This really hit me:

...

Signage has been installed at Dunkirk port wishing drivers ‘a céad míle fáilte’, but there was also a local man on hand to welcome the ship. Herve Tembuyser (49) was, despite the cold, decked out in just jeans, a leprechaun hat and an Irish rugby jersey.

“I’m French but I feel a little bit Irish,” he said. “I spent a week in Dublin once and I’m engaged to an Irish woman...I hope they launch a passenger service to Rosslare soon. I’ll be the very first customer.”

I don't know who got phoned up to allow my DD onto the plane, but someone was. Then as I said, there are potential problems when they get to the other end, because staff there don't know either.

As it happens, with Covid rife, no one much is going anywhere and people are working from home, and once in Schengen countries there are no land borders, so people will be pretty free to travel by car/train at least when covid restrictions are lifted.

So thanks Leavers, you have got your Brexit, but like Clavinova and TerryHern you can't risk goading. Shut up and get on with rebuilding the country.

[quote TheElementsOfMedical]Another fish business finding that milk and honey are not a great environment for piscine life.

twitter.com/bbcmartynoates/status/1327958985614495744?s=20[/quote]
If only I could bring myself to care that Leave voting fish merchants have got exactly what they voted for.

@TheElementsOfMedical

Why is the Weirdly Resentful And Angry Despite Winning So Much Sunlit Uplands cohort still campaigning for the Thing They Have Already Won on this thread? Shouldn't they all be sitting back, congratulating themselves, whilst the milk and honey just naturally flow in?

I think PM has it spot on.

The deal Johnson has rammed through the country is a trojan horse. If it sits there doing nothing, then the UK remains tied to EU standards, but with no penalties. If the UK wants to diverge - the agreement allows for that, but at the cost of tariffs. It's purely a UK decision and either way will eventually reignite the Tory San Andreas fault over Europe. Only this time they'll have already trashed the country. They'll have to trash themselves.

Meanwhile, the penny is dropping on the new rules of origin on food supply chains.

From the FT:

Trade experts said the problem had arisen because the basic, Canada-style trade deal sought by the UK did not take into account the integration of supply chains and close proximity of the UK to the EU.

No shit Sherlock.

@SabrinaThwaite

Meanwhile, the penny is dropping on the new rules of origin on food supply chains.

From the FT:

Trade experts said the problem had arisen because the basic, Canada-style trade deal sought by the UK did not take into account the integration of supply chains and close proximity of the UK to the EU.

No shit Sherlock.

I think we've all had enough of experts ...

Also, worth noting how just over a year ago, there was a party that offered exactly what people are now clamouring for.

And I don't feel particularly charitable about reminding them of this in every fucking post. I cannot put into words how I want Tory voters to own their fucking mess right now. I'm jolly cross.

Even the experts are finding things a bit tricky:

Robert Hardy, one of the central figures in the £100 million-a-year government-backed Trader Support Scheme (TSS) which ministers have claimed will smooth over the Irish Sea border, said in an email to senior industry figures yesterday that “the new processes are cumbersome and need to be done in a certain order”.

...

“There is a huge shortage of customs agents and whilst this might not be visible just yet, it will be from tonight as the pressure will be on export documentation.

“We understand that France have already started to send vehicles back for not having the correct documentation.”

www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/top-customs-expert-admits-new-irish-sea-border-cumbersome-and-hugely-complex-even-me-40-years-experience-3086505

Article dated 9.30 pm last night ...

Perhaps Scotland can come in and pay for it.

If Scotland is such an economic basket case as some Unionists claim, then Scotland would be a net beneficiary from the EU as Ireland was in the early years If it's not such an economic basket case, then yes, we'd pay our dues, as part of the responsibility of membership . And in both scenarios, would enjoy the benefit and voice (including a veto) of membership, whilst also enjoying our sovereignty.

Win win

I think I predicted that the fisheries industry could get wiped out, but saw that as a Brexit bonus for fish stocks.

Close proximity of the UK to the EU: surely Johnson could rustle up at least one person with a knowledge of Geography? Not Raab obviously.

The food supply chain issue with U.K. hubs is a fine example of unintended consequences.

It was always likely that some expected consequences would be less serious than expected, and some more serious. Hopefully balancing out to give the predicted approx -4% impact on GDP.

But - at least in the short term - most of the unexpected consequences will be highly negative (not anticipated = not mitigated).

@TheElementsOfMedical

Why is the Weirdly Resentful And Angry Despite Winning So Much Sunlit Uplands cohort still campaigning for the Thing They Have Already Won on this thread? Shouldn't they all be sitting back, congratulating themselves, whilst the milk and honey just naturally flow in?

It would be lovely to hear from some- one. Ideally a few million people who at least feel they've "got their country back". Would make it all worthwhile. Perhaps it's the pandemic. Perhaps they'll feel they've got their country back afterwards?

But - at least in the short term - most of the unexpected consequences will be highly negative (not anticipated = not mitigated).

Unknown unknowns .....

From what I’m reading, I don’t think the EU is keen on fixing the issue - it seems to be of the view that Brexit has consequences and that EU businesses will have to stop using the UK as a distribution hub.

Perhaps it's the pandemic.

A lot will be saying 'if it wasn't for covid....'

Cross threading a bit, but encouraging news from Georgia. I hope there are a few squeaky bums amongst the more intelligent Tories this side of the pond as they process the limits of populism and the damage it leaves in it's wake. Because Trump has clearly fucked the GOP over big time, and they not only bent over for it, but wiggled to let the shaft go as deep as possible.

@SabrinaThwaite

Even the experts are finding things a bit tricky:

Robert Hardy, one of the central figures in the £100 million-a-year government-backed Trader Support Scheme (TSS) which ministers have claimed will smooth over the Irish Sea border, said in an email to senior industry figures yesterday that “the new processes are cumbersome and need to be done in a certain order”.

...

“There is a huge shortage of customs agents and whilst this might not be visible just yet, it will be from tonight as the pressure will be on export documentation.

“We understand that France have already started to send vehicles back for not having the correct documentation.”

www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/top-customs-expert-admits-new-irish-sea-border-cumbersome-and-hugely-complex-even-me-40-years-experience-3086505

Article dated 9.30 pm last night ...

I'm really worried about the impact this will have on NI and the GFA. If it becomes really difficult for individual NI people to "import" from GB or for shops to get stock, the current arrangements will lose support, despite the advantages of effectively being in the EU.

The tories were blatantly lying about the impact of the border in the Irish Sea but I think there are many in NI who actually believed the lies. Unfortunately, the chickens appear to be coming home to roost now with reports of things (e.g. plants, bulbs etc) not being shipped to NI as they are not viable unless going in large quantities due to the costs associated with the paperwork.

@DGRossetti

Also, worth noting how just over a year ago, there was a party that offered exactly what people are now clamouring for.

And I don't feel particularly charitable about reminding them of this in every fucking post. I cannot put into words how I want Tory voters to own their fucking mess right now. I'm jolly cross.

Oh please don’t. The number of times on these forums I saw that policy mocked and tried to explain what it actually meant and it’s impact. It’s the old problem of people thinking IT is magic, something different and new and not really part of the real world, and not bothering to actually think about what communications really are. Or even remember that it was coming for essential communications infrastructure to be in the public domain not long ago.

On a completely different topic if anyone wants some escapist lockdown viewing with an antidote to little England mentality, I’ve just discovered Xavier Lefebvre’s “The Silk Road” and it is amazing. It’s available streamed via Amazon Prime.

Was common.

@Peregrina

Perhaps it's the pandemic.

A lot will be saying 'if it wasn't for covid....'

To which the reply is: Shut up you whinging idiot with a pointed reference to how many times it was suggested Brexit be deferred/delayed and how many times Boris said to go fuck yourselves

No, you don't get off that easily. The government you voted in to "Get Brexit Done", got Brexit done, and this is it.

Besides, as we were told ten times daily, all Leavers all knew exactly what they were voting for.

Well, this is it.

There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.

This from Donald Rumsfeld was widely derided at the time. But much as I disliked the man himself, what he said seemed eminently sensible to me.

Unknown unknowns .....

I hesitated to call them unknown unknowns because rules of origin have been clearly flagged by those pesky experts. Unanticipated consequences but not unknowable ones.

Anyway clearly project "no shit Sherlock" is now underway.

Turns out that not having queues at ports is worse than having them. It means the lorries are stuck somewhere unable to even move in the right direction.

I just read about one NI firm which sent 285 lorries to GB and has only got 100 back. The rest are waiting to be loaded because of missing paperwork. As everyone with half a brain has known for four years, disruption in one direction automatically causes disruption in both directions.

You can plan for known unknowns. As I have done with "Alien Invasion" as a line in a business continuity plan. The "known" is it would cause an office closure. Loads of things could cause an office closure. And the key thing about the planning is less what caused it, and more "What do we need to do to keep systems going if the office is closed ?"

This is one reason why I don't buy the tired line "no one could have foreseen" about this governments pisspoor handling of everything. Because people could - and did foresee this.

I didn't think that free broadband roll out to each house was stupid. We expect houses to come with the piping for water and cabling for electricity as standard, but there are plenty of countries in the world which don't provide that. Yes, we pay for the water and electricity we consume, but once the broadband connection had been rolled out, we could have paid for the actual services we used.

As for NI - didn't the Brexiters promise that they would have the best of both worlds? Which in itself was an odd promise, because it implied that there was a benefit being in the EU, whereas we know that the EU is all bad.