Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@Chickenandegg8

I just can’t believe anyone would carry out such self inflicted economic disaster on their country. It’s just frightening. My oh and I work for a company that exports a lot into Europe. Whilst my job should be safe, not sure about oh, even if he keeps his, a lot of the others will lose theirs. So so sad.

If they stand to benefit from disaster capitalism, why wouldn't they?

Late PMK.

I remain convinced BJ wants No Deal.

Did anyone else hear Lord Bilimoria the other day? He was scathing about the lack of information for businesses to prepare:
"Check what? Change what? Go where?"

@RedToothBrush
I get that, it’s just frightening that a prime minister would put his own and his mates interests before his country. It’s shocking.

I might be being thick, but how does disaster capitalism work? How are they making money out of all this?

David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Plenty of talk this morning about how UK sovereignty is what is stopping an EU deal, that the EU want to impinge on this.

Sorry, the argument is totally bogus. It is a combination of EU hatred and cakeism dressed up in respectable clothing. 1/ n
8:30 AM · Dec 10, 2020·Twitter Web App
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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17m
Replying to
@DavidHenigUK
How do we define sovereignty in trade deals? Complex question, so let's just look at this government. It believes in trade deals and membership of the WTO. These contain binding rules. Therefore for this government sovereignty and binding rules are compatible. 2/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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15m
Therefore sovereignty in terms of trade rules for this government is a relative concept either in content or partner terms. So when they say the EU proposals go too far is that because of what is proposed, or who it is proposed with? 3/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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14m
We haven't been told the detail. But with regard to the level playing field it is suggested that no country could sign up to a situation where not following the rules leads to tariffs being imposed. However we agree to this in the WTO and FTAs. So that is untrue. 4/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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12m
Fish is a slightly different matter, and it is being said that the EU proposal would deny the UK control of our waters. But definitionally that can't be true. We're showing our control through the discussion. We don't have to do a deal. 5/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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11m
And in fact this is true of the trade deal with the EU as a whole. There does not have to be a deal. If there is not, then WTO terms. We have both signed up to these a long time ago. Apparently sanctions under the WTO aren't breaches of sovereignty. 6/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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9m
So why do we even want a trade deal with the EU? To avoid tariffs, get more haulage permits, have greater rights to provide services, that sort of thing? This sounds then like a transaction, where we have to choose the price we're prepared to pay. 7/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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7m
Neither the EU or UK has to do this deal. It is a choice. So why is this choice a matter of sovereignty? Just say no.

Unless, perhaps, you think you are entitled to a special deal without paying a price? Or that the other side is wrong? 8/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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5m
We are back to cake. Back to the belief that the EU 'should' give us a special deal. And anger that they won't. This isn't about sovereignty. It is about a failure to agree commercial terms. It doesn't matter if the EU is right or wrong. It is whether you can do the deal. 9/
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
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4m
And, just perhaps, the idea that the EU is not the body that the UK 'should' be dealing with. That it is illegitimate, not being a country but a bloc. That should be brought down.

Well tough. Countries want trade deals with the EU and hate the experience. Live with it. 10/

I might be being thick, but how does disaster capitalism work? How are they making money out of all this?
Traders love volatility. Trading banks made a lot of profit during Corona for that reason.
It's a huge leap to assume that individuals/banks/financial entities create disasters for the sole purpose of creating volatility and hence personal gain. Highly unlikely and barely possible. This is very overhyped on these boards by people who have just latched on to the headline and feel like it fits with their narrative.

If you hurt businesses further down the chain if you have the money to invest for the future you can buy up all the debt and assets of businesses that have gone under and you have less competition.

Von der Leyen reminds me of a Charlotte Rampling character who does not suffer fools gladly.

None of it makes any sense - we’ve been trying for 4.5 years on these threads to puzzle out a logical reason why a country would do this to itself, and we’ve got nowhere.

We might have to take the hit, take the long view and hope.
(And just protect your nearest and dearest as best you can. We can do no more.)

It’s heartbreaking.

@DrBlackbird the Graun is becoming increasingly irrelevant.

I’m not sure about that. I think more people read the Guardian online than one would think.

The latest PAMCo results show the Guardian is the most read quality news publisher in the UK, with a record 35.6 million adults accessing Guardian journalism across both digital and print formats on average per month.
The Guardian is the second most-read online newspaper in the UK, overtaking the Mail (33.6m) for the third time in last four PAMCo releases, and the Mirror (31.7m), with a 46% year-on-year increase to bring the monthly digital readership to 35.2m readers.
The Guardian also retains its position as the UK’s most trusted news publisher by its regular readers at an overall brand level - encompassing both the Guardian and Observer in print and online.
The PAMCo data also demonstrates the Guardian’s increasingly regular and engaged readership - with the Guardian recording the largest daily (8.8m) cross-platform reach across all UK qualities - around double the nearest rivals of the Independent (5.3m) and The Telegraph (4.2m). On average digital readers spend 31 minutes per month with Guardian journalism - more than any other quality.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/gnm-press-office/2020/jun/17/new-data-shows-guardian-is-the-top-quality-and-most-trusted-newspaper-in-the-uk

pamco.co.uk/

I did look at PAMco but couldn’t work it out!

Didn't Von der Leyen have a career as an obstetrician or gynaecologist as well as bringing up seven children? It's no wonder she doesn't suffer fools gladly if that is the case. Set that against lightweight Johnson who wrote a Telegraph column, spouts Latin, and doesn't know how many children he has.

I'm continually puzzled by the semi-flippant way this is being discussed even on the heftier news programmes, sometimes as though it's a purely theoretical prospect

I thought this whilst watching Newsnight yesterday. R4 has been the same - I think - don’t manage to hear much of the Today programme.

It’s strange. What is going on?

Also I think the Guardian has had good up-to-the-minute COVID coverage. And if you’re looking for advice on ‘How to Have a Safe COVID Christmas’, I think they have the most helpful articles.

Of course that’s my opinion!

I think this a type of 'phoney war' period which the UK had after it declared war on Germany, but nothing much appeared to happen.

EU are laying out their no deal plans...

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769/photo/1

[quote TokyoSushi]EU are laying out their no deal plans...

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769/photo/1[/quote]
Not a hope in hell the UK will agree to the fisheries proposal in that. It would be a massive climbdown.

Although I suppose they could fudge it as EU caving and allowing full access to their waters so UK trawlers can catch the fish eaten in the UK? Still won't help UK fishermen sell their catch into the EU but that's not the EU's problem.

When Trump was running for POTUS there was a fascinating debate about how shit he would be on WAO (from memory).

The overall conclusion was that Trump wasn't in any way shape or form a politician. Even he doesn't call himself that. It's always an emphasis on being a "Businessman" which - naturally - makes everything "a deal".

The commentators around the mike all pointed out tha that an approach like that simply doesn't work in international relationships.

One way of viewing Brexit is as an infection of the political classes with loads of like minded apprentice rejects that think everything is somehow "a deal".

Eventually, this new form of doing politics is going to drift into religion (may have already happened) where principles can't be bought and sold.

The current UK-EU impasse is a manifestation of this because it's not really a business deal is it ?

Yes, I thought it was quite 'bold' on fisheries. What a mess!

[quote TokyoSushi]EU are laying out their no deal plans...

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769/photo/1[/quote]
Don't even know where to begin explaining to some of those replies... Utter ignorance and exceptionalism.

Raab plays down concerns about food prices rising and shortages in shops in event of no deal

Definitely time to stockpile then, wouldn't trust this muppet one bit, he was the clown who hadn't realised the importance of the Dover-Calais crossing and what it will mean for food supplies if it's disrupted.

So, the UK is reliant on the EU to ensure aviation safety in the event of ND?

How has it come to this?
Is there a Leave voter anywhere who expected this?

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

So, the UK is reliant on the EU to ensure aviation safety in the event of ND?

How has it come to this?
Is there a Leave voter anywhere who expected this?

Expected it ? They voted for it.

And never let them forget it. I'm sure our kids won't.

It's going to be no deal and try and negotiate bit by bit.

.

Thing is, with the FT article telling us not to gloat - Fuck off.

At least they are acknowledging this could be a potential massive issue.

Our politicians seem to have forgotten that in their plans for the vaccine to be arriving by air rather than Trucks