Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

... for you keeping...

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney, @Dontlickthetrolley - the coke shortage is for Ireland. Ye might have one too though. I've no idea where the ingredients come from or where it is made.

Unfortunately I suspect the supply lines for the powdered sort will carry on regardless TonMoulin!

Both sides have agreed to keep talking until later in the week!
R4 news, now.

It sounds like a deal is now possible - Johnson has conceded this morning that future divergence will have a cost, now they "just" have to agree on what that cost will be.

He's been comprehensively out played as was predictable all along (shades of the WA here).

I thought this was an interesting take on it from Nick Gutteridge.

1/ As Brexit talks enter what might be their last few hours, the key hurdle to overcome is how to agree on what the EU calls 'managed divergence' and the UK has dubbed 'lightning tariffs'. Despite the doom and gloom, there are signs the sides aren't quite as far apart as appears.

2/ The EU has dropped its insistence on a 'ratchet clause' which would have formalised the principle both sides should keep up with each other's standards. It's now ready to cater for divergence in the future so long as there are strong safeguards to rebalance unfair competition.

3/ This is a shift from the EU, which previously rejected managed divergence as too messy and risky for its economies. They worried it would create constant uncertainty for them. It thus represents a fair departure from the EU's opening position on LPF.

4/ There is a difference between having a commitment to match standards hard-wired into the deal, failure to comply with which would be a breach of the agreement, and a mechanism written into the text catering for a decision to diverge and accept rebalancing measures in return.

5/ What the sides are now trying to thrash out is how unfair competition would be defined, the process for triggering rebalancing measures, and how extensive they'd be. The EU originally wanted the Commission to have the unilateral right to apply them - hence 'lightning tariffs'.

6/ That demand angered the UK, and has now been diluted by Brussels which accepts there needs to be due process based on evidence. One EU proposal is for a 'distortion test' that could be triggered by either side. They're also open to setting up an independent arbitrage system.

7/ The EU stresses this would only apply in cases of 'significant divergences' in standards - it wouldn't be used to scrutinise the minutiae of every British law. 'At a certain stage the competitive advantage might become so big you have to do something. How do you manage that?'

8/ Key for the EU is speed of response. UK is open to these ideas but is concerned about the size and scope of rebalancing measures. It wants unfair competition in specific sectors to be addressed with tariffs in those sectors. On LPF, the EU has been wedded to cross-retaliation.

9/ But cross-retaliation is for breaches. So could a middle-ground be found here? Some don't think it's worth sacrificing a deal over. 'Is either side going to collapse an entire trade deal over what would be a very sectoral issue, over which you could impose sectoral tariffs?'

10/ It's not impossible to see a way through that ticks UK red line on sovereignty & EU one on protecting the Single Market. That's what negotiators have been hammering away at. Risk of No Deal is still 'very high'. But if so it'll be over 'a very minimal subset of open points'.

Delurking to say thank you for the threads, I read them and massively appreciate the advice and information. Because of these threads we were prepared for the lockdown in March (thanks to the brexit stockpile) and will be so much better prepared for whatever is coming in January than we otherwise would have been.
Thank you so much from me and my family for these threads to all the past and present contributors, sometimes it's the answers to the squirrels that make sense of the issues of the day.
Maybe I am getting better at predicting problems to come as I thought of lemons/lemon juice last week and now we just have to find fridge, freezer or cupboard space for it all!

So FT now reporting that they have agreed to extend trade talks. Seems all this is just a negotiating ploy. To me, the risk remains of an accidental no deal - especially if they keep on with the gunboat nonsense.

‘F* Business’: The story of how corporate Britain got screwed by Brexit

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-deal-business-corporate-b1769995.html

Very clear and concise

twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1338052426516082688?s=21

@mrslaughan - that is a brilliant description of a trade deal and the problem with the UK approach.

She's basically telling BJ, Frost, Gove et al to stop willy waving and to figure out what a trade deal actually is: managing interdependence rather than asserting independence.

I returned to the threads briefly a few weeks ago and then left again almost immediately after becoming a little touchy over some gloating about Kent getting its just desserts. Thanks to Red and all the regulars, hope it’s ok with you all if I give it another go?

I’m getting increasingly annoyed with people banging on about becoming a Singapore style low tax, low regulation nation. Have any of them considered what it’s like living in Singapore if you aren’t wealthy?

I too have water purification tablets somewhere in a box. Bought them last year as part of a ‘if the shit really hits the fan kit’, along with mouse traps, rat traps and fire extinguishers. Might have to hunt out those boxes...

Is this all to paper over the fissures in the Tory party? Again!

Posture about no deal being such a jolly jape for the country then wait for the press to (finally) catch on that it's an economic disaster for the country. Cue worrying press and panic buying.

Then he can tell the ERG / hard leaver Tories (this could well be after 1 Jan so the disaster capitalists have had their field day) 'the remainers and Labour vote lenders are so worried, they are causing the supply issues they are worried about. We cannot do the Brexit we want in one fell swoop. We need a deal for a few years or we will be locked out of power for a decade or more. Starmer is no Corbyn. He's electable. We need a deal'.

Then to Barnier/ UvdL "Yes whatever you've written will be fine. Where do I sign?"

Good summary, @Choux.

I often wonder what it would take for the Tories to be unelectable.

Delurking to say these threads have been so helpful red, you've most definitely stopped some people falling off the cliff without warning. My DH has been very chilled about the whole brexit thing and that we will get a deal, this morning he took both cars to fill the tanks just in case.
It feels like the perfect storm, all those people easily riled and waiting for an opportunity to cause destruction will have a field day.
The crazy thing is this time last year people were laughing at labour for offering free broadband as the costs would be astronomical and why should everyone have broadband as a basic right? This year the same people have been shouting about the fact working from home is difficult because broadband is too slow or unreliable, but still say "yes but Jeremy Corbyn... can you imagine where we would be with him in charge?" Its so frustrating to see seemingly intelligent people reduced to headlines from newspapers with no cognition for why those newspapers have that agenda.
Anyway, red thanks again, these threads are so informative and helpful in not making me feel I'm over reacting (actually I feel underprepared when I come on these threads!)

Catching up to say

I have sharpened the edges of my ELO albums

I can just about cycle to the Winchester from here

Double Tap

Babooshka
I was chatting to somebody who lives not far from you this morning.
They were VERY annoyed that the poor compliance of North Kent has bollocksed up south Kent
and suddenly getting rather worried about what is coming down the M20

Dover has always been a bit reactionary as its a place people drive through not to
but I know that many friends in East Kent have been sold down the river by their government, MP and Councils
which is sad

wrt water industry chemicals

We are holding 3x normal stock (for context at this time of year we normally hold 2x normal stock because everything slows down over Xmas & NY). We are required to report stock weekly (again, we normally track use at least weekly for operational purposes) but this is now being reported upwards & there is a national level of reporting run that covers all the water companies (and for all I know other industries too).

How well the mitigations will work I can't say but its not like nothing has been done to prepare at all.

A bigger concern for me than chemicals is supply of spares for some of our mechanical equipment as if everything goes a bit wrong instead of totally wrong then I'd expect mechanical parts to go on the slow queue while food & perishable goods go on a faster track.

Which is right from a Big Picture perspective, just means we may end up patching things up more than we'd like and for longer than we'd like.

Good news NotCrying, thanks! I also have water purification tablets ... in a drawer somewhere.

I have also just finished making (another) 2 litres of apple sauce from some of our remaining cooking apples. And am adding lemon juice to my shopping list.

@ListeningQuietly

Babooshka I was chatting to somebody who lives not far from you this morning. They were VERY annoyed that the poor compliance of North Kent has bollocksed up south Kent and suddenly getting rather worried about what is coming down the M20

Dover has always been a bit reactionary as its a place people drive through not to
but I know that many friends in East Kent have been sold down the river by their government, MP and Councils
which is sad

Wondering whether I can take a lead from the Government’s stance on fishing rights and let the couple to whom we sold our nice house in Essex know that we’ve decided we want to take it back now.

That’s the way these things work I believe.

Johnson on the radio this lunchtime sounding just like the naughty boy who is being very naughty in front of everyone just to show how clever he is. He simply can’t keep the glee out of his tone. I’m almost waiting for the big reveal - we have a deal ! And for him to turn around and say, ha ha, no we haven’t! Tough titty! Had you there!
A bit like Joffrey killing Ned Stark in GOT.

About those 4 gunboats ...

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/reminder-that-britain-handed-the-license-to-monitor-its-waters-to-a-french-firm-last-year/13/12/

Military vessels patrolling UK waters after Brexit may have to rely on data from a French firm that was handed the license to monitor them back in October last year.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) yesterday confirmed that four 80-metre armed vessels had been placed on standby to guard British waters from EU trawlers in the event that there is no new agreement on fishing rights after December 31 when transitional arrangements end.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal on the issue as he looks ahead to a reelection race in 2022, but in a moment of irony reminiscent of the blue passport fiasco, he may not need to fret.

According to reports in The Times last year, a Defra tender handed the contract to track UK and foreign-licensed boats in British waters to French firm Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS) after previously being held by British firm, Globavista.

(contd)

Incidentally, interestingly, spotted by DB in a Tennessee local forum where secession appears to be the topic du jour.

Texas shouldn't make a plebiscite with a mere 50% be sufficient for independence, however. That was a mistake the UK made, why it looked like a second vote would turn out differently. 67% would be good. (Not that they should do this, of course. My brother lives in Texas. I don't want to have to get a visa to visit him.)

@DGRossetti

About those 4 gunboats ...

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/reminder-that-britain-handed-the-license-to-monitor-its-waters-to-a-french-firm-last-year/13/12/

Military vessels patrolling UK waters after Brexit may have to rely on data from a French firm that was handed the license to monitor them back in October last year.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) yesterday confirmed that four 80-metre armed vessels had been placed on standby to guard British waters from EU trawlers in the event that there is no new agreement on fishing rights after December 31 when transitional arrangements end.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal on the issue as he looks ahead to a reelection race in 2022, but in a moment of irony reminiscent of the blue passport fiasco, he may not need to fret.

According to reports in The Times last year, a Defra tender handed the contract to track UK and foreign-licensed boats in British waters to French firm Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS) after previously being held by British firm, Globavista.

(contd)

You just couldn't make this stuff up....