Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@RedToothBrush

what’s the import tax on lemons to WTO?

ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-horticultural-products

I may have been looking up tariffs yesterday...

Hurray - dried kidney beans - 0%!

Well, it looks like the Sunday deadline is now not a deadline at all.

Sounds familiar?

With every passing deadline, it becomes more certain that a deal will be done. (If not in time for Jan 1st then very shortly thereafter).

PS I'd still be prepping if I were in the U.K., but I'm not actively nagging my mum to stockpile.

Remember price increases to consumer in the event of no deal are likely to be:

Wto tariffs + extra red tape costs + longer delivery time costs + supply/demand issues + tariffs on packaging etc too

Between Brexit and Trump I'm wondering has the world gone completely mad. I feel like I'm watching a zombie apocalypse through my fingers from behind the sofa.

I used to be much more concerned about Ireland than the UK; I presumed that something/anything would be sorted for the UK, but Ireland would be very much forgotten. I'm now hopeful that in these ridiculous circumstances the EU will help Ireland. I was also relieved to read a factcheck - from last year, but still relevant - showing that Ireland only exports 11% of its goods to the UK, and only imports 24% - very different from the figures claimed by multiple UK politicians.

Apart from some luxuries (rhd cars for example), I expect we'll be fine. Relatively.

www.thejournal.ie/amount-ireland-trades-with-the-uk-4745788-Jul2019/

@Mistigri

Well, it looks like the Sunday deadline is now not a deadline at all.

Sounds familiar?

With every passing deadline, it becomes more certain that a deal will be done. (If not in time for Jan 1st then very shortly thereafter).

I have long felt that the chaos of the journey is much much more the whole point of the exercise than the destination. Something that might prompt a mysterious dissatisfaction with whatever "Brexit" is delivered as once we are there the only way top may even more megalolly is to push the pendulum back.

On that basis, I wonder if the forces backing Trump actually felt they'd benefit more from his going. Hence his (and his braindead numbnuts base) confusion and petulance at not getting what they thought they were getting.

Returning to earth, if Labour feel they have to carry on the Good Ship Brexit now, who the fuck can you chose at the next election ? If you take Brexit as the Tory project it is, then it's not for Labour to adopt it too ? After all it's not like the Tories adopted the welfare state, is it ?

PS Many thanks to RedToothBrush for her "list of things to do while waiting"

Red the BBC are forecasting here a wet Christmas week (not cold) although it’s not reliable this soon.

Don’t forget Cummings is still in the shadows, ‘working from home’ till 18th, I believe. I bet BJ has been on the phone to him.

I don’t blame Corbyn, whatever my opinion of him. He didn’t cause austerity, hostile environment, the ridiculous referendum and its bungled handling thereafter, useless COVID policies etc etc.

We must stop saying ‘Corbyn would have been bad’ and move on.

Thank you to whoever posted about the Independent Sage zoom conferences on YouTube. I watched Friday’s one and they speak their minds! Especially Costello!
And a helpful Christmas 3 point safety plan.

www.independentsage.org/

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tet4q7AR5U8

(It’s long but I watched on double speed!)

@TurquoiseBaubles - Ireland only exports 11% of its goods to the UK, and only imports 24% - very different from the figures claimed by multiple UK politicians.

That is reassuring. However, some industries (farming particularly) will be disproportionately affected. We should get a fair proportion of the EU contingency fund to mitigate the impact on those sectors.

Re imports - I heard on the radio last week that the imports that are most likely to be noticeably affected are processed food (e.g. breakfast cereals, biscuits etc) and flour. Supermarkets are stockpiling but I would definitely recommend having a look at your food labels and getting a bit extra in if you would miss any of those items.

Yes Ochon. Food, expecially dairy farming, will be hugely affected so I'm hopeful it will get additional support from the EU.

According to ds there'll be a massive shortage of Coke.

According to ds there'll be a massive shortage of Coke.

I can live with that

@Mistigri

Well, it looks like the Sunday deadline is now not a deadline at all.

Sounds familiar?

With every passing deadline, it becomes more certain that a deal will be done. (If not in time for Jan 1st then very shortly thereafter).

I’m still holding on the same hope @Mistigri.

Whilst stockpiling still. Well use that food/soap anyway

Which one @TurquoiseBaubles?

Returning to earth, if Labour feel they have to carry on the Good Ship Brexit now, who the fuck can you chose at the next election

Brexit has happened. We are all on the good ship Brexit now. I don't see what Labour gains from pretending that any of this can easily be reversed. Even a policy to rejoin EFTA might take more than one Parliament to be implemented.

Katya Adler says statement due between 11:30 & 12 noon, not sure from who, probably both...

According to ds there'll be a massive shortage of Coke

Oh good , somebody I know who is a brexiteer , racist etc is addicted to coke the drink not the powder . Good to know she might suffer.
Vindictive? me? Not to most people.

Apparently (Tom Newton Dunn, Times radio, while I was doing the ironing) the call is now over and Johnson is going into a call with the cabinet...

And still we wait!

What is wrong with me? I keep coming on here, looking at news sources, hoping that there will be some good news. That it won't be so calamitous after all. Feel like a child that needs to be reassured after a nightmare 🙄

I feel like that too, I hope there will be good news, even though there probably won't be.

Between Brexit and Trump I'm wondering has the world gone completely mad. I feel like I'm watching a zombie apocalypse through my fingers from behind the sofa.

Perfect description of the last four years. I'm not sure you can even do satire anymore, it is so much crazier in reality.

I can't believe it has come to this. Why would we do this to ourselves?

According to ds there'll be a massive shortage of Coke

My Christmas week shop is currently held with a ridiculous amount of coke, I might just keep it in the trolley!

@prettybird That's a good deal - I spent £7 something on 150. I did think as I bought them that I had tipped over into madness and I haven't mentioned them.

Another deadline comes and goes, talks set to continue, probably for ever more.

"Talks to continue".

I'm not someone who ever talks about have "anxiety" but I have felt on a constant angry knife edge since June 2016. Earlier, tbh, As soon as Cameron announced he'd offer a referendum.

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

According to ds there'll be a massive shortage of Coke

Oh good , somebody I know who is a brexiteer , racist etc is addicted to coke the drink not the powder . Good to know she might suffer.
Vindictive? me? Not to most people.

The final revenge of the remainer over the leaver is going to be that we'll all be stocked up, right? While they will all believe it's going to be fine.

@prettybird

Dh thinks I've gone mad as I've just spent £3.89 on 100 water purifying tablets.

My view is that it's a paltry amount, but better to be prepared

I have a private water supply from a spring. Nice taste but I have to have a purification and filtration system...luckily my “special” friend is a plumber.

RTB
Some excellent posts recently, especially the one yesterday at 23:50.
Very grateful for keeping these threads going.
Another one missing BCF's valuable and unique perspective, please wish her well from me too.

I lost all hope some time ago. As I've said many times, Johnson doesn't want a deal.