Johnson has just warned the UK there will be no deal

[EmmaGrundyForPM]

I knew this was on the cards but now feel really sick.
Do you think he's bluffing to make the EU blink or is this it?

Rusty,

That is like saying we want a war as we maintain a standing army.

If the EU won't even entertain the same terms they offered Canada then you have to question their treaty obligation to “ negotiate in good faith “. If that's the case then there is no point in wasting any more time.

ragged initially I suppose you'll tell by the price, but eventually everyone will have to go low in order to compete.

No real detail on US deal at the moment - really depends on the election. The Irish American caucus has said they won't allow a deal that fucks over Northern Ireland or the Republic, and they are more powerful with Biden in charge as he's Irish American himself. Trump is more the "what can you do for me?" type who will push hard and throw no favours our way. Our government have demonstrated their weak negotiation skills so either way USA will have a field day. Keep an eye on NHS. Sell by stealth I imagine, like our gov have started to do (see NHS services being contracted out to private companies e.g. NHS track and trace, actually Serco.)

@Pyewhacket

If the EU won't even entertain the same terms they offered Canada then you have to question their treaty obligation to “ negotiate in good faith “. If that's the case then there is no point in wasting any more time.

I think you've been misled. More details on the Westminsterenders thread in Brexit forum, but essentially the Canada deal is something we ruled out, not the EU, and it doesn't include things like financial services anyway, our economies are very different to Canada and our location means the Canadian terms wouldn't be approved anyway.

The NHS is a bit of a disaster zone in any case. A shake up would do it good. Nobody can even get an doctors appointment and treatment for life threatening illnesses on hold, check ups cancelled.

The NHS is underfunded - political decision by Tories
The NHS is understaffed - because of Brexit
Countries in Continental Europe have better Health systems and ideas
The USA model is to be avoided at all costs

@larrygrylls

Rusty,

That is like saying we want a war as we maintain a standing army.

Fair point, Larry. I guess I am just highly cynical about the government's motives and ability to negotiate anything that resembles a deal. I don't want us to leave with 'No Deal', but there again - I didn't want Brexit to begin with....

Rusty,

No one who is not crazy wants no deal. It would be mutual craziness to not agree a deal but both sides sound intransigent.

I think the French and Irish would struggle badly with no deal, although Macron seems to think it would be OK. Doesn't France have an extremely powerful fishing lobby?

In addition, given that the automotive sector is heading to electricity, the Germans would be allowing Tesla to dominate the UK market if there were a US but not a European deal.

Of course, we would also struggle badly with no deal.

I doubt we will know whether a deal will be done until very close to the deadline. I am remaining cautiously optimistic, as are the financial markets.

If the EU won't even entertain the same terms they offered Canada

There are two problems with this.

First is that the U.K. doesn't want a Canada deal. It says it does, but that's just PR and lies. It wants a lot, lot more than Canada.

The second is that the U.K. is not a distant country with limited EU trade. Canada is a 7 hour plane journey/ several day ship journey away from the EU and does about €60bn of trade with the EU annually. The U.K. is a 15 minute train ride/ 1.5 hour ferry journey away and does €800bn worth of trade.

I've heard a few times that if Canada-EU trade negotiations started today, Canada wouldn't get the deal they have. Anyway, EU doesn't think about access to fish in Canadian waters & Canada doesn't offer a lot of financial services or whiskey. Does Canada sell many cars to EU? I mean, the products & services to exchange are totally different.

ducksoap.wordpress.com/2018/09/21/disaster-capitalists-and-no-deal-brexit/

This is from 2018 but still valid (although refers to May as PM)

bakerstreetherald.com/2020/09/case-1-the-tabula-rasa/

@larrygrylls

Rusty,

No one who is not crazy wants no deal. It would be mutual craziness to not agree a deal but both sides sound intransigent.

I think the French and Irish would struggle badly with no deal, although Macron seems to think it would be OK. Doesn't France have an extremely powerful fishing lobby?

In addition, given that the automotive sector is heading to electricity, the Germans would be allowing Tesla to dominate the UK market if there were a US but not a European deal.

Of course, we would also struggle badly with no deal.

I doubt we will know whether a deal will be done until very close to the deadline. I am remaining cautiously optimistic, as are the financial markets.

Really? I’ve seen enough Brexiters on social media saying they’re really happy about no deal.

the products & services to exchange are totally different.

Plus the U.K. wants a zero tariff deal, which CETA absolutely is not. To get anything like CETA they needed to extend the transition period to allow time for line-by-line negotiation of tariffs.

So any of the usual suspects bleating about CETA are either stupid or lying.

There are Brexiteers who are still bleating "get Brexit done" but I also know loads who are now horrified at the reality of no deal.

"Honey." And I guess this "little woman" put down was deliberate. We see you.

"Honey" is the username of the poster larrygrylls was replying to.

@Selmaselma

But didn't he say it would be very easy to make a deal?

He said it was "Oven Ready".

Trouble is that he doesn't know where the oven is, how to turn it on, whether the recipe is in Fahrenheit or Centigrade, where the casserole dish is.... I could extend this metaphor but you get the idea.

@Viviennemary

The NHS is a bit of a disaster zone in any case. A shake up would do it good. Nobody can even get an doctors appointment and treatment for life threatening illnesses on hold, check ups cancelled.

The NHS has been shaken up so fecking often over the last 20 years! That's the reason it's in the state that it is. It been shaken to pieces!

This from another thread

Not a new one, but doing the rounds again;

Synopsis of UK position

A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a man below. He descended a bit more and shouted,

"Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man below replied, "You are in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 30 feet above the ground. You are between 40 and 41 degrees north latitude and between 59 and 60 degrees west longitude."

"You must be an engineer," said the balloonist.

"I am," replied the man, "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to make of your information, and the fact is I am still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help so far."

The man below responded, "You must be a Brexiteer."

"I am," replied the balloonist, "but how did you know."

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You have risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. The fact is, you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now, somehow, it's my fault."

This isn’t posturing now, if it ever was. There are 20 calendar days in the most packed portion of the year to go. After 4 years of posturing and lying to the British people Johnson and his corrupt cronies have most likely, through incompetence or deliberate malice, brought ‘no deal’ scenario upon us, with no preparation. If they get anything now it will be too little too late.

People will die over this. Despite both the revisionist tendencies and the push for greater authoritarianism, rule by elite declarations of what was, is and will be, we will remember. Johnson and his cronies lunged for this and pushed it from the start and Brexiteers followed the “charisma” like lemmings. He was always a known and proven liar out for no ones interests but his own, and Brexiteers swallowed the bait whole, hook line and sinker. He and all his excuse for government needs to resign, and face much more public censure over this than Blair ever did over Iraq. Somehow I don’t think it will be forthcoming.

Hear hear! 07:12MayYouLiveInInterestingTimes

@MayYouLiveInInterestingTimes - couldn't agree more. There isn't going to be a deal. Johnson doesn't want one.

Listen to him when he speaks - no regret about where we are at all. In fact he sounds upbeat. Ask yourself why.

This is the second time he's said it this autumn, but last time we all discounted it. This time it feels a bit more real. But, still, could only be a negotiating ploy. I wonder if he even knows yet..?

The day of the Brexit referendum result, I expected Boris and Michael Gove to look jubilant. Instead, they looked shocked and subdued.

I wonder what’s changed for Boris?