Westminstenders: The Tunnel or Bridge

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently negotiations are in the black hole of the EU tunnel or should that be on the back of the fantasy of the Boris Bridge?

Another week closer to complete meltdown.

I'm guessing that our world beating customs solution will be based on blackboard and chalk.

Back in January I happened to have finished work early and thought a trip to a pub would be nice. So I went to the OEG on Gold St. for a swifty. Their tv was tuned to BBC News and all they were reporting on was 'a novel coronavirus'. The chap next to me at the bar was also watching so I said "they ought to shut down all the airports now", he asked why and I replied "remember how quickly SARS went around the world? Don't forget, this is China, it's probably been there about 6 months already if they're releasing this information."

I haven't been to the pub since, I'm waiting for a vaccine.

BCF A lot of middle class Hong Kongers are saving and watching. If they do come here they will have no recourse to public funds so they need that cushion. However the 2m have to qualify for a British Overseas passport which means they had to be born before 1997, sadly the majority of those under threat as a result of the new law are under 23.

However the demographics of British Overseas passport holders are skewed towards the better off and qualified. They are the ones most keen to preserve a Hong Kong identity and to be afraid of the latest developments. The less well off and less qualified tend to be Cantonese first and Hong Kong Chinese second and not ever attracted to that identity.

Emilyontmoor
Perhaps they should? New Zealand and Hong Kong would certainly understand

Pie in the sky idea if you can't name an MP (from either main party) supporting it.

In fact Hong Kong is specifically singling out the US and U.K.

In what way - do you have a link?

Yes, listening When all these jobs are just cancelled by the govt, to protect public health* then the public should damn well pay the people sacrificing to protect them

and yes, it is overwhelmingly the young - who are very tiny risk - sacrificing & suffering in many ways for the late middle-aged and elderly*

I totally agree with this. These aren't for the most part "unviable" jobs - if and when the virus can be got under control, hotels and bars and theatres will become viable again. In China, my colleagues tell me that the hospitality industry is currently incredibly busy due to pent up demand.

I do think we have a duty to acknowledge the sacrifices being made by young people to keep their parents and grandparents safe. That doesn't make me a lockdown sceptic, because there's no evidence from anywhere in the world that you can allow young people to get infected while protecting their elders. But I'm a realist about what you can reasonably expect young people to accept at this point. My children are students and I'm not afraid for their health, although I'm glad they don't live with me.

I do wonder where we go from here - I don't think the Chinese/NZ solution is available to us any more, the virus is now too widespread. Here in FR it's everywhere, even places that had virtually no virus in the first wave (63 cases in my département a couple of days ago, versus a maximum of one or two a day in May and June). You would have to lockdown hard for at least 6-8 weeks again and I simply can't see there being the political will or popular support for that.

Is a negative COVID-19 test (PCR and/or serology) required for entry? Yes

<span class="italic">As of July 29, the Hong Kong government requires travelers arriving in Hong Kong from the United States to provide proof of a negative COVID-19 nucleic acid test administered within 72 hours of the scheduled time of departure. Travelers from the United States will no longer be able to quarantine at home upon arrival and must instead show confirmation of a hotel reservation for not less than 14 days starting on the day of arrival in Hong Kong...</span> 

Are health screening procedures in place at airports and other ports of entry? Yes

<span class="italic">As of April 8, all inbound travelers arriving at Hong Kong International Airport are subject to COVID-19 testing, and as of April 22, they must wait for test results at a designated location.</span>

hk.usconsulate.gov/covid-19-information/

when do business owners contribute? when does the scheme stop?

I am also a SME business owner. We have been contributing to the staff wages via the furlough scheme from the beginning when we opted to voluntarily top up our staff wages to 100%.

We have since increased our contribution when the gov't reduced its contribution to the furlough scheme.

As of 1st November, we will pay for 1/3rd of hours they would have otherwise been working but for Covid / local lockdown measures i.e. we are paying them for hours not worked.

All the while we have made continuous losses since reopening in July. We have done and continue to do this because we value our staff and they would not be able to pay their bills otherwise.

and when are some jobs judged to be unviable to support?

We are hoping against hope that all jobs and our business remain viable, but ending the transition period on January 1st is just going to be a kick in the teeth on top of covid if we don't have a deal and even if we do as our business is located in an area where jobs are dependent on JIT supply chains with EU businesses.

This so-called party of business though Johnson made his feelings crystal clear on what he thought of business has driven us and many other SME's to bankruptcy through mismanagement of this pandemic and their ridiculous vanity project Brexit.

Youngsters have had
Their education screwed over by Gove
Their exam results screwed over by Williamson
Their travel and career prospects screwed over by Brexit
and their current job prospects screwed over by Johnson
the NHS is on its knees because of years of under funding and a Brexit staff exodus, COVID is just an add on

Universities are locking them in their expensive rooms and charging them through the nose for shit food
while not giving them the education they pay handsomely for

But hey, grouse shooting is exempt from the rule of six

Clav I thought you were the master of cut and paste.

www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_GB/covid-19/hong-kong-travel-restrictions.html

Note especially the exemption "Passengers holding a new entry visa to work, study, establish or join in any business, or to take up residence in Hong Kong"

And the additional requirements "Passengers who are ending their journey in Hong Kong and have visited or transited through Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, the United Kingdom (effective 1 October 2020 0:00, Hong Kong time) or the United States in the 14 days prior to arriving will be required to show the following documents."

The UK already has a list of countries that you have to quarantine after travelling to, the only difference is that in Hong Kong you have to have a good reason to be going there and you actually have to quarantine. There are regular reports of people with the quarantine band being set about by old ladies with their umbrellas when they try to venture out.

Like I say we are one of the plague capitals of the world.

You might also be interested in the Government's website which provides full timely details of every case, the building, how it was transmitted. airline seats etc so that Hong Kongers can make sensible decisions about how they go about their lives. No question of being told that you are in a hotspot when you have just spent time in hospital and worrying sick until you find out several days later that you are not in a hotspot at all because over a quarter of cases are in postcodes in other cities because Dido's systems are limping along so slowly and ineptly that they can't even provide prompt accurate data. www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/index.html

“Britain is considered as having a bigger impact on Hong Kong, compared with France and Spain,” a source familiar with policymaking said."

“When deciding on which countries to add to the list, health authorities also looked at the potential number of travellers arriving from those countries and the number of direct flights available.”

"Dr Leung Chi-chiu, a specialist in respiratory medicine, said Hong Kong authorities should include Spain and France on the high-risk list to ensure the policy was applied consistently."

“The epidemic situations in France and Spain are no better than in Britain, and in fact are more severe."

www.intellasia.net/hk-to-add-britain-to-high-risk-coronavirus-list-all-travellers-from-uk-must-have-negative-covid-19-test-before-flying-face-two-weeks-in-hotel-room-814866

Misti I totally agree, and it isn't just that cases are so widespread, and the test and trace systems are not up to the job. The government have completely eroded the will of the people (to coin a phrase) as well as not controlling our borders. Back in march the response to quarantine whilst it lasted was surprisingly positive and people seemed to accept it was a necessary evil. The same was true of lockdown. But then Dom dashed up the motorway and since then the government could not have alienated people from the measures that are needed to control the virus any more if they had tried which to be frank whether it is cock up or conspiracy they implicitly did. Not just the one rule for them but the inconsistent messaging, arbitrary measures taken without consultation. Now they have succeeded in pitting north against south even more than it already was. I have people I thought were sensible endorsing the dinosaur libertarian MPs and the three wide of field scientists (without a single peer reviewed Covid related study between them) they quote. It is a desperate plea from cities in lockdown where the measures have just left increasing numbers of cases.

I don't know what the answer is either but it really scares me.

The city of Manaus allowed the virus to go unchecked and up to 66% of the population were infected with deaths over 2000 per 100k of population compared with our world beating figure of over 600. Their hospitals and graveyards were overwhelmed. There was speculation when cases began to fall that they had achieved herd immunity but now the city is actually locking down as a result of another surge. uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-manaus/in-brazils-amazon-a-covid-19-resurgence-dashes-herd-immunity-hopes-idUKKBN26I0I8

I just can't see how we are going to avoid another world beating performance in the Covid league tables on a devastating scale.

I do wonder where we go from here - I don't think the Chinese/NZ solution is available to us any more, the virus is now too widespread. Here in FR it's everywhere, even places that had virtually no virus in the first wave

www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-antibody-testing-chicago-rate-northwestern-20201009-jxzpyewzlrcgnny2fyflupqdcq-story.html
Yes, and this study and others indicate that exposure to the virus may be more widespread than official figures - which usually show confirmed symptomatic cases.

20% in Chicago have antibodies (preliminary result) vs 3% identified in other tests.
www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-antibody-testing-chicago-rate-northwestern-20201009-jxzpyewzlrcgnny2fyflupqdcq-story.html

A study published in the 'Journal of the American Medical Association' that was based on antibody testing concluded that actual COVID-19 infection rates were at least 10 times higher than the official reported case count in most locations around the country.

Official counts are based on tests that detect SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. That type of testing can’t identify people whose infections have cleared. In addition, many infected people never get tested because they had no symptoms, had less severe symptoms or couldn’t access a test.

I do wonder where we go from here
The UK elected a government led by a known lazy incompetent LIAR
so sadly when life shits on us, we just need to stay under cover
until saner voices prevail at the ballot box

Clav And your point is? In the details of flights that imported cases traveled to Hong Kong on, the vast majority originated in the UK or Dubai (through which travellers to Hong Kong from the UK regularly transit) I don't recall a single case that travelled on flights from France or Spain. This is the last 14 days, 8 cases originated in the UK, 5 on a London flight 3 from Manchester, and 3 in Dubai, out of a total of 43. The other countries accounting for multiple cases are 6 each on single planes from Delhi and Kathmandu. The only other European country accounting for a case is Switzerland unless you count Finland's 1 and Istanbul's 4 (on a single plane) That pattern was even more pronounced during the first and second waves when students were fleeing London clad in full hazmat gear.

Of course they are going to prioritise additional requirements for passengers who have travelled through the UK since it is the origin of the most imported cases

www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/flights_trains_en.pdf

If we are asking people to not work, surely we have a duty to ensure they can still afford to pay their bills, keep a roof over their head, and not get into mountains of debt?
Having previously been furloughed and now returned to work, I know what a lifeline the furlough scheme offered and if a consequence of that is paying more taxes then I will accept that.

The fact that this government has wasted billions of pounds during this pandemic and then says that the people likely earning the lowest amounts in the first place should accept a further cut in their pay is wholly unfair and as a minimum the 80% should be maintained.

Whilst some jobs may have been created by the pandemic, there will never be enough to ensure everyone has a job and competition for the jobs that have become available is fierce.

Protecting our elderly and vulnerable requires sacrifices for everyone, it is only fair that the ones being asked to make the most difficult sacrifices should then be supported so that they don't become mentally, financially and physically unable to recover from sacrifices they are being asked to make.

Re: Hong Kong...

I've not looked at Cathay's schedule but I know BA resumed a limited number of direct flights between the UK and Hong Kong a few weeks back. I gather some Brits with the required exemptions are travelling, and of course the entry protocols and procedures are strictly enforced at the Hong Kong end.

Math 20% of Londoners too are estimated to have antibodies (this includes a member of my household who took part in the trial, they had a cold with runny nose and loss of taste and smell in March) after it ran through London unchecked in March. I have seen the assumption that there were in fact ten times the number of official cases in several scientific papers. However I know families where all had illnesses with Covid symptoms, yet only one has antibodies. And even if you have antibodies nobody knows if immunity lasts. Like Mistigris the rate of increase in the virus where I live is far greater than it was in March so even though it ran through our community in February and March it is clearly still finding rich pickings.

Emilyontmoor
And your point is?

“When deciding on which countries to add to the list, health authorities also looked at the potential number of travellers arriving from those countries and the number of direct flights available.”

Emilyontmoor
communities now badly hit like Bradford, the highest death rates are still in the surrounding affluent, and overwhelmingly white, towns and villages

Nevertheless -
"July - BRADFORD East MP Imran Hussain said there is a "clear link" between areas in Bradford showing the greatest numbers of new, positive cases of Covid-19 and the number of households living in poverty."

"The Labour MP analysed data from Public Health England (PHE) and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and said the areas showing the greatest number of cases are significantly more likely to be made up of more households in poverty."

I don't think BA ever completely stopped the Hong Kong flights? Or if they did it was for a limited time. I live under the flight path and the Hong Kong flights are the first to come in, so sad as I am one, of my ways of passing the insomnia hours is to follow them on flightradar as they come in . The usual two BA flights including an A360 went down to one 777 on a reduced number of days. Virgin and Cathay flights were arriving regularly too.

There are still so many connections between Hong Kong and the UK even as its economy has increasingly faced the US and China, and will do so even more after Brexit, when the UK will no longer provides an effective intermediary to EU markets, particularly if there is no agreement on the service sector.

Clav Yes it is spreading now in deprived areas but the death rates are still highest in affluent areas where the virus spread in March, like Ilkley which had 28 deaths with another 7 in neighbouring postcodes and Bingley with 26 with another 40 in the nearby villages, Baildon and Saltaire with 20 etc.

"Despite residents of Ilkley complaining on social media that the town should be exempt from regulations because of its distance from Bradford city centre (it falls within the Bradford Council area), it's actually had the most coronavirus deaths in any of the three local authority areas in West Yorkshire to have been put back into lockdown. There were 28 fatalities from Covid-19 between March and June, with a further seven in neighbouring Addingham and Ilkley Moor. Ilkley has a large elderly population."

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/these-are-numbers-deaths-postcode-bradford-calderdale-and-kirklees-2930792

Yes, the residents of Ilkley did complain - also in the Yorkshire Post, 5 August - 3 days later than your link;

"A petition has been set up to ask Bradford Council to remove Ilkley from the city-wide lockdown."

"Despite Ilkley and Addingham having lost 35 residents to Covid-19 between March and June, local councillors have been informed by public health officials that the current case rate in the town is low and that the spring outbreaks were concentrated in care homes for the elderly."

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/people/residents-ilkley-are-angry-town-included-bradford-lockdown-2934271

According to the BBC Johnson has now called Macron, as his self imposed deadline nears.

@Peregrina

According to the BBC Johnson has now called Macron, as his self imposed deadline nears.

.

Pissed off public does matter:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/09/covid-in-england-latest-figures-suggest

Newly released papers reveal that behavioural science experts warned that only 18%-25% of people who needed to were self-isolating.