Westministenders: Brevid

[RedToothBrush]

The government have FINALLY started to treat no deal brexit and covid as one entity in terms of fucking the economy.

On the one hand you have one camp who think they can sneak No Deal through as a consequence of Covid. On the other you have people who realise that it might be quite a good idea not to doubly screw your entire economy and to continue to be able to import medical supplies freely.

We now no that No Deal Brexit will involve passports to get into Kent and 7 mile queues of trucks because this has passed the lips of Gove. Y'know one of those who has been denying this for the past 4 years and presenting it as 'scaremongering'.

We are now firmly into the end game where businesses have to make plans based on the government plans and technology. Y'know the ones that aren't complete yet despite it only being 2 months to go.

Johnson has today done an interview about covid restrictions in the NE in which he got all the detail wrong. Its almost as if he forgot the lines he was instructed to recite and have no fundamental understanding of what rules he's putting into place to control the lives of the population.

As we lurch into October, there is speculation of full local lockdowns being brought in to try and deal with the spiralling number of cases which have to be the result, in no small part, of a dire lack of local testing facilities in the North of England. Meanwhile we've got The App finally. The one that doesn't work and the police and many health care staff are being advised not to use cos its so bobbins and will lead to them constantly isolating needlessly. Thats just something the rest of us have to contend with.

The feeling is that Cummings is up for No Deal. Johnson has been brainwashed into it, which lets face it, isn't too hard given how hard of thinking he is. However there is a growing sense that Johnson may now bottle it and declare victory in the jaws of defeat. That might be a premature hope.

We await the answer and the all important question of whether Christmas is indeed cancelled - that is for everyone who hasn't already cancelled it due to financial hardship...

"First Japan, is Canada next? The UK set to begin talks with Ottawa in over future trade deal."

We should be ok with Canada - they broke international law themselves recently.

www.export.org.uk/news/526071/First-Japan-is-Canada-next-The-UK-set-to-begin-talks-with-Ottawa-in-over-future-trade-deal.htm

@Clavinova Still only puts us where we would have been if Brexit hadn't happened, some aspects of the Japanese FTA are worse, some better.

Long way to go :(

Even Farage is critical of BJ reneging (despite a perfunctory dig at the EU)

Nigel Farage@Nigel_Farage

The “oven ready deal” was an international treaty
— for the EU Commission, that is like the Bible.

Whilst the EU always acts in bad faith, all they are doing today is asking Boris to keep his promises.

I wonder if Japan will approve their deal in its current form now

• they may want to add clear penalties for reneging

Reneging on a deal - when the ink is hardly dry - will have caused concern in Japan
Reneging is not really accepted anywhere, except places likr NKorea or Zimbabwe

Stiff penalty clauses will likely be first on Trudeau's list too

Of all the tactics BJ / Cummings could have tried, reneging on an international treaty was surely the most self-harming,
Even though they have no ethical sense, they should see the harm

Even Farage is critical of BJ reneging

His tweet immediately above that one -

"We can never have a clean break Brexit with an EU treaty. After 4 years of agony the time has come to just leave."

If the Uk wants a deal ...

Last I heard, the EP will veto any deal that does not maintain the NI protocol in full
and will demand that the clauses reneging on this, in the IMB and the Finance Bill, be removed first

They may demand guarantees, or penalty clauses, to stop the Uk reneging in future

• Barnier is reportedly trying to define some

All because BJ's word is now worth nothing
The first time in living memory that a British PM was regarded as so untrustworthy by other leaders

This lack of trust may well be what is the real roadblock to a deal

Gove < sound of tentacles slapping >

@BigChocFrenzy it's lovely to see somebody else enjoyed The Brexit Tapes. Gove as an Eldritch Horror was just sublime.

@prettybird good news your boy is on the mend.

I've not commented or contributed to this thread for ages though I do read every post.

@Clavinova

Even Farage is critical of BJ reneging

His tweet immediately above that one -

"We can never have a clean break Brexit with an EU treaty. After 4 years of agony the time has come to just leave."

... imo, No Deal is now probably best

According to Tory backbenchers, the aim is to get a deal to avoid the UK going thorugh Covid 2nd wave and No Deal at the same time,
but once Covid is no longer a threat, say June, they'll demand the govt renege on that deal too

So a deal is meaningless

The Uk needs some months of No Deal to decide whether it wants a genuine treaty it will keep
Once things have calmed down and we know what the effects really are, negotiations can take place on that basis
As it is, noone really knows for sure what will happen

If it weren't for Ireland, the EU wouldn't even be considering a deal now - they'd let the UK stew
However, safeguarding the Single Market has priority
Ireland has some leeway wrt a light touch border on just the main roads, for heavy goods vehicles, at least in the interim

"What is surprising is the outraged reaction from the EU. Sadly, breaking international law is not uncommon and the EU itself is no stranger to it."

"For years the EU has ignored WTO rulings on GMOs and hormone treated beef. The Court of Justice of the European Union has, at least twice, ruled that the EU does not have to follow international law – once in the context of WTO law (Portugal v Council) and once (the Kadi-Barakaat case) actually ruling that the EU should ignore the UN Charter – the highest order of international law – if it conflicts with the EU’s internal structures."

"Neither does the EU abide by its own internal treaty obligations. When France or Germany broke treaty commitments in terms of deficits and debt levels, nothing happened. When Poland and Hungary undermine the very rule of law within the EU, there is much talk and zero action. Whether the European Central Bank is currently operating within the constraints of the treaties is up for debate."

reaction.life/the-new-brexit-storm/

The EU can break its own internal rules, just like families can,
but won't let outsiders break them - or it would have to let every non-member do so

wrt the WTO: every country & bloc has many decisions against it
and many countries ignore e.g. their duty to take refugees, or accepting GMO foods

The UK has lost many decisions in international courts e.g. the ECHR on multiple counts of violating human rights in NI and in GB, the 5 torture interrogation techniques in NI detention - for which it was convisted of "brutal and inhumane treatment", holding prisoners without trtial

However, an international treaty with other parties is very different
and it is very serious breaking one

The EU has not reneged on an international treaty it signed,
the UK has never done so under any (modern) PM
and I can't think of any respectable country that has

It isn't even the morality of breaking an international treaty:
it's the consequences

Why on earth would the EU believe the UK won't break any new deal too ?

In business, would you sign a deal with anyone who had broken the previous one ?
I certainly wouldn't
The EU, because of Ireland, hasn't - yet - walked away

BJ claimed the WA as a victory, an oven-ready deal in his manifesto
.... then months later broke the deal

Why would any other trading partner trust the UK to hold to any trade deal ?

Tory backbenchers have been reported as saying the UK should grab any deal, then renege after Covid is no longer such a problem

So the EU already know the UK will likely break any new deal as soon as it feels strong enough to do so

I can't think of any respectable country that has

Canada;
"Canada will become the first industrialized nation to legalize recreational marijuana. While this decision received overwhelming support within the country, it also breaks international drug treaties that forbid its sale."

Japan - whaling?

The difference is breaking a trade treaty signed specifically with a trading partner just months earlier

as distinct from international law that either a country always opposed (Japan) or thinks belongs to a bygone era (Canada)
Noone worries about signing a trade deal with them over this

No respectable country has signed - and much praised - an international trade deal
only to renege on it months later

Rather like an individual may break drugs laws, commit adultery etc and not suffer consequences in business,
whereas breaking a legal deal they signed with a partner a few months ago would get them sued and blacklisted

How does the EU know the UK won't break any new deal a few month later ?

... especially when Tory backbenchers are advocating this as a deliberate strategy

You have to think what are the consequences for the UK of breaking an international deal it has recently signed

when the UK is desperate to sign another deal with the EU
and with many other countries around the world

Canada letting people smoke dope, or Japan killing whales may offens some people within other countries,
BUT
it doesn't make them fear that if they sign a trade deal, that Canada or Japan will renege a few months later

I'll admit the following is a random google;

February 29, 2016
"New German Constitutional Court Decision on “Treaty Override”

"By Court order of decision of 15 December 2015 (2BvL 1/12), published only recently, the German Constitutional Court (second Senate) has confirmed the practice of treaty override in tax law. The euphemism “treaty override” means that the German legislator adopts a law which violates a prior international treaty (often a treaty on double taxation). The Federal Tribunal on Finances (Bundesfinanzhof) had doubts about the constitutionality of this practice. It was convinced that a recent amendment of the Income Tax Act which is incompatible with a German-Turkish dual taxation treaty of 1985 is unconstitutional, exactly because it violates the treaty."

"The Constitutional Court did not follow this view. It opined that the constitutional principle of democracy (which includes the principle of discontinuity of parliament following elections) demands that the German Parliament is free to change its mind and to make or amend a law even if this violates an international treaty which had been ratified by a previous Parliament (Order of 15 Dec. 2015, paras 53-54). Also, the constitutional principle of friendliness towards international law does not have the legal effect to render statutes which violate international law at the same time (and for that reason) unconstitutional (para. 64). Put differently, this principle does not create a constitutional obligation to comply with international treaties “unconditionally” (para. 67). The reason is that the constitution does not prohibit Germany as a state to violate international law (para. 58). The Basic Law “does not renounce on the sovereignty which lies in the last say of the German constitution” ...

"Finally treaty override is lawful and constitutional, independently of the option of denouncing the treaty first."

www.ejiltalk.org/new-german-constitutional-court-decision-on-treaty-override-triepelianism-continued-2/

Listening Since Pence is supposed to be fine and neither of them do "reaching out" across the aisle, why this ?

Lewis Goodall Retweeted chris evans@notcapnamerica

Nancy Pelosi has just been contacted by the White House on the protocols of continuity of government, according to MSNBC.

These are all very esoteric points that noone except you gives a shit about

No country would worry about signing a trade deal because of them

All completely different to reneging on an international deal BJ recently signed,
when he wants to negotiate a lot of other international deals

You have not answered why the EU should believe he won't renege on any new trade deal in a few months ?

Because odds are - he will !

BCF wouldn't that just be a standard precaution in the event of POTUS going into hospital where he will or might undergo anaesthetic /be put into a coma or otherwise be potentially unable to make decisions?

They are the equivalent of knowing someone has a parking ticket, smokes dope occasionally, has an affair
vs
knowing they deliberately broke a business deal with a business partner, just months after signing

Would that same partner, or anyone else, want to sign a new business deal with them ?

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

BCF wouldn't that just be a standard precaution in the event of POTUS going into hospital where he will or might undergo anaesthetic /be put into a coma or otherwise be potentially unable to make decisions?

... while Pence is still around ?

Maybe they always have to inform the 2nd backup

• I gather the Speaker if the House is Number 3 in succession, so maybe the independent civil service still functioning and keeping her in the loop ?

Trump is taking an experimental drug which has yet to be peer reviewed (info released by the whitehouse). This drug is being used under 'compassionate' licensing (info released by the drug company) - this is usually done when no other drug treatment is available to a patient. The drug is being targeted at patients who have an extremely high viral count.

So why is the US president taking such a drug?

As highlighted on twitter you'd have to be crazy to just experiment with it on the president. Other treatments would logically be used first. At least you would think.

As it turns out Trump is mates with a number of the executives of the drug company, and the CEO plays golf at Trump’s club.

Its all rather bizarre. Apparently shares are doing well though.

"you'd have to be crazy to just experiment with it on the president."

But what if the president is crazy - which he is to at least some degree - and demands it

Grifters gonna grift.

It'll be bleach with a slice, next

and sticking a UV light up his arse

Lewis Goodall Retweeted Jim Acosta @Acosta

Trump adviser said there is reason for concern about Trump's health tonight

"This is serious," the source said

The source went on to describe Trump as very tired, very fatigued, and having some trouble breathing.

WH officials continue to say Trump will be fine.

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