Westministenders: Brevid

[RedToothBrush]

The government have FINALLY started to treat no deal brexit and covid as one entity in terms of fucking the economy.

On the one hand you have one camp who think they can sneak No Deal through as a consequence of Covid. On the other you have people who realise that it might be quite a good idea not to doubly screw your entire economy and to continue to be able to import medical supplies freely.

We now no that No Deal Brexit will involve passports to get into Kent and 7 mile queues of trucks because this has passed the lips of Gove. Y'know one of those who has been denying this for the past 4 years and presenting it as 'scaremongering'.

We are now firmly into the end game where businesses have to make plans based on the government plans and technology. Y'know the ones that aren't complete yet despite it only being 2 months to go.

Johnson has today done an interview about covid restrictions in the NE in which he got all the detail wrong. Its almost as if he forgot the lines he was instructed to recite and have no fundamental understanding of what rules he's putting into place to control the lives of the population.

As we lurch into October, there is speculation of full local lockdowns being brought in to try and deal with the spiralling number of cases which have to be the result, in no small part, of a dire lack of local testing facilities in the North of England. Meanwhile we've got The App finally. The one that doesn't work and the police and many health care staff are being advised not to use cos its so bobbins and will lead to them constantly isolating needlessly. Thats just something the rest of us have to contend with.

The feeling is that Cummings is up for No Deal. Johnson has been brainwashed into it, which lets face it, isn't too hard given how hard of thinking he is. However there is a growing sense that Johnson may now bottle it and declare victory in the jaws of defeat. That might be a premature hope.

We await the answer and the all important question of whether Christmas is indeed cancelled - that is for everyone who hasn't already cancelled it due to financial hardship...

“The parliamentary party feels bruised we are treated like whipping boys and girls,” said one Conservative MP."

Then stop acting as though you are. Vote against Johnson's bill, let him take the whip from you.

I wonder if this is the start of local mayors rebelling against central govt measures on Covid ?

The Mayor (Indep) rejects new govt restrictions on Middlesborough

• although I don't know what power he has to do anything, other than venting.

However, his statement will likely influence some residents not to be compliant:

Andy Preston Mayorr@Tees_Issues

Govt Restrictions Are Unacceptable
We tried to communicate with govt but they didn’t listen
They’re imposing restrictions that’ll kill viable jobs & damage mental health

I do not accept the government’s intended restrictions - they’re based on ignorance

Fortunately I don't think the Mayor of Teeside (whatever powers he might enjoy) gets to decide on this.

If mass disobedience ensues and cases and subsequent COVID deaths continue to rise in the area it has been made absolutely plain who is responsible for those deaths from here on out. Nice job Mayor Preston.

Why would the mayor of any locale want to do anything to the detriment of his/her fellow locals? What is being suggested is more akin to the German model (I think), with local experts more able to respond to local needs. Sounds completely sane to me. Probably why HMG don't like it.

I don't see how compliance will last over winter - unless there is a 2nd wave around the size of the first, to scare enough people into compliance

atm, with so few deaths, many people are pissed off, just going into work and sending kids into school anyway - lying about a negative test
Threads on MN that kids returning to school supposedly after neg tests are letting slip they were never tested
An obvious lie for parents who can't get tests, or think "it's just flu / col"

re the latter:
imo, DfE needs to change its current daft policy from saying schools shouldn't ask for proof of a negative test to saying they should require it
Ditto places of work should demand proof

.

DfE needs to change its current daft policy from saying schools shouldn't ask for proof of a negative test to saying they should require it
Ditto places of work should demand proof
But a negative test is only valid at the moment its taken.
People could be exposed on their way home from the test

COVID tests are like DBS - only valid at the moment they are taken

Much better to use the British Columbia system of
make no headlines

In schools, take steps to protect the vulnerable
In workplaces, take steps to protect the vulnerable

but give over on this Stalinist diktat system

The case load in my city has risen to 15 per 100,000
No district within 50 miles of here has a rate over 24

So to waste resources locking us down
when the councils that need support are being asked to buy their own data from Deloitte and Serco
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/30/deloitte-selling-contact-tracing-services-to-local-uk-health-officials
is Stupid

So much disapprobation thrown from all quarters. I can't answer it all, because I lack the time to sit on the internet all day, and as it is a complex issue... you know what, I am typing out a huge response and it's too much. I'll leave just this:

It is not a surprise to me that many different people with vastly different life experiences in an unequal and varied country, of nearly 70 million now, had different reasons for voting the way they did back in 2016. I usually like to listen to other people's reasons and see their point of view and experience without labelling them unnecessarily. I know how difficult the lives of the working classes are here, first hand; I know that if the UK were to turn into a failed state most of us would not escape any more than we can from Brexit. The reasons behind immigration are varied. Not all of them come here escaping certain death in orchestrated death camps, nor do I object to housing up to a few thousand children in genuine need as that is just a drop in the ocean. The problem is that extremists would have us taking in millions each year, whole populations of failed states, or just anyone who fancies an adventure and that simply cannot be done. We are not all-powerful. We cannot even solve our own inequality.

Pepperwort the extremists aren't in charge, and that argument really is a squirrel.

Upthread you've basically used the age old and much debunked 'immigrants depress wages' argument - the evidence is strong that the effect is in fact minimal and that EU immigrants contribute more than they take. You shouldn't be surprised to be pulled up on that one on this particular series of threads, because it is a non-argument and makes you sound like a Brexit apologist.

I have been an immigrant of sorts in another EU country. It is a fact that we undercut locals on wages. This group say it's debunked but then go through it on, with some here complaining about high prices in the 80s? That would be the baby boomer and Y generations incidentally, not mine.

Pepperwort if it's a fact, I'd like to see some statistics, please. The UK evidence does not support your contention.

For a start, immigrants working in the NHS can't undercut wages - pay scales are set, and national.

Furthermore, the example upthread about British plumbers etc. and callout charges isn't about undercutting wages, it's about showing up how long people have put up with being ripped off.

Is there one politician in the country saying the UK should take in millions of refugees ?

If you mean the EU immigrant workers:
that has massively reduced ... and been replaced by other immigrant workers, mostly from developing countries

because the UK has a demographics problem - too few working age people to support the rest -

and also a problem in getting people to do the hard lowpaid but essential jobs in care, nurseries, food processing plants, agriculture etc

Since the voters refuse to pay higher taxes / council tax / prices to significantly increase those wages, the UK will need to continue importing workers, or grind to a halt

They won't pay to train more doctors, scientists - and the expense & debt puts off many who might have otherwise trained

All of which is irrelevant to the main structural problems of the UK, which have nothing to do with immigrants

But some people keep being distracted by the dogwhistle about foreigners being the problem
The problem is the poor choices that the country has been making for several decades

@ListeningQuietly

DfE needs to change its current daft policy from saying schools shouldn't ask for proof of a negative test to saying they should require it Ditto places of work should demand proof But a negative test is only valid at the moment its taken. People could be exposed on their way home from the test

COVID tests are like DBS - only valid at the moment they are taken

Much better to use the British Columbia system of
make no headlines

In schools, take steps to protect the vulnerable
In workplaces, take steps to protect the vulnerable

but give over on this Stalinist diktat system

The case load in my city has risen to 15 per 100,000
No district within 50 miles of here has a rate over 24

So to waste resources locking us down
when the councils that need support are being asked to buy their own data from Deloitte and Serco
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/30/deloitte-selling-contact-tracing-services-to-local-uk-health-officials
is Stupid

... Listening Protecting the vulnerable is impossible Are you going to pay for 15 million to stay home ... and their families

Even if you mean just the ECV, that is 2 million - 90,000 schoolkids, some teachers, NHS staff and other workers

Yes anyone may catch Covid the next daya after a negative test, or after no test at all
A measure does not have to be perfect, just to work a lot of the time

Requiring to see a negative test at least stops those who are knowingly going in with symptoms to work or school and lying about a test

Sweden followed your preferred strategy and they have 5-12 x deaths / million of their similar Scandi neighbours

They even have 5.5 x deaths per million of Germany, which has 10 x their population density ... and about the same predicted drop in GDP

High deaths, even high cases, mean people chanmhge habits, so the economy is still screwed

Look at this chart of deaths and economic performance
The top left has the countries with both lower deaths and lower economic damage:

That's economic performance to end Q2 iirc;
predictions for end 2020 are that countries with fewer deaths will bounce back more economically - but we don't yet know how this winter wave will go

It also depends on a country's public services:

I'd have a lot more faith in Germany's or Sweden's test, track & trace systems, as well as the capacity of their health services to cope

The poor NHS is stretched every winter even without a pandemic
As for Dido's various disasters ....

The French Health Minister has been speaking. For every 10 people in intensive care, three are under 65. Huge amount of testing happening, 75% of results returned within 48 hours. Paris and many other cities on heightened alert.

Bigchoc
Sweden is not the UK and the UK is not Sweden.
What the UK is trying at the moment is not working for the UK

Bolton is not SAlisbury and Salisbury is not Bolton

The approaches should be locally appropriate and locally decided
hence why I like the British Columbia approach
www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data

[quote ListeningQuietly]Bigchoc
Sweden is not the UK and the UK is not Sweden.
What the UK is trying at the moment is not working for the UK

Bolton is not SAlisbury and Salisbury is not Bolton

The approaches should be locally appropriate and locally decided
hence why I like the British Columbia approach
www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data[/quote]
....
Always remember that things can get worse
Just because a strategy is not working very well - although still better than France & Spain atm - does not mean that another strategy would be better

If the Uk had competent government and well-funded efficient public services, the risk might be worth taking
With what the Uk is lumbered with, your strategy is very high risk

... aand for what benefit ?
Look at that chart of all those countries:
high deaths ==> high economic damage

You can't decouple the economy and deaths,
especially not in Western countries that are so service dominated, needing people to feel safe enough to go out and spend on non-essentials

Well, at least the Scottish NHS still seems to be operating ok : ds woke up this morning in pain, rang us for "help" (150 miles away ), eventually after lots of prodding from us rang his GP practice, got a telephone appointment in the afternoon, saw the GP an hour later and she's sent him to hospital with suspected appendicitis

So far, he's had his blood taken and been seen by a 4th year medical and awaiting being seen by the surgeon.

He's commented that his Protect-Scot app is going to love this

Listening We can only compare similar countries, so I was comparing Sweden to its Scandio neighbours,
all low population density, similar non-huggy culture, high number of single person households (esp Sweden)

5-12 x deaths / million show the effect on no lockdown and limited SD vs lockdown, more SD
If Sweden's economy had shown a clear improvement over the others, at least we could see the benefit
As it is, they have similar economic harm, for 5-12 x the deaths

The UK death curves followed Italy's not Scandinavia's

Imagine what the UK would be like without lockdown, with the 1st wave being multiples higher than the current UK total ,
as the above comparison suggests - quite plausible in a highly populated country

The NHS would have been overwhelmed, as briefly happened in N Italy, but going on for months ....
Far more businesses would have collapsed for ever
Catastrophe

Best wishes to MiniBird, Pretty 💐

Thank you BigChoc

He's now been seen by the surgeon and will be operated on tonight or in the morning. Fortunately he had the sense to take his phone charger with him to the GP surgery - and I suggested his PJs and his sliders

Sliders ?
[out of touch old fogey emoticon]

UK haulage frustration grows as Brexit minister Gove ducks the issues again

A rare fight in the open,
but the RHA has been one of the few organisations to speak bluntly about Brexit consequences

https://theloadstar.com/uk-haulage-frustration-grows-as-brexit-minister-gove-ducks-the-issues-again/

In parliament this morning, Mr Gove was asked why the government believes the Smart Freight and the Goods Vehicle Movement Service IT systems were “in operation”, when the RHA has said they were “absolutely not”.

Mr Gove appeared to try and shift some blame onto the RHA itself, while failing to answer the question.
< surpriiiiiise >

He said:
“I’ve found that the RHA, valuable organisation though it may be, hasn’t always necessarily been quite the most constructive partner at every stage in the consultations we have needed to have."
....
RHA CEO Richard Burnett responded on Twitter:
“We have been the most constructive partner to the Department for Transport, HMRC and Border and Protocol Delivery Group, highlighting issues and gaps continuously in process.
We have also suggested many constructive solutions.

Mr Gove has chosen not to listen or, indeed, answer our questions.”