Westministenders: Brevid

[RedToothBrush]

The government have FINALLY started to treat no deal brexit and covid as one entity in terms of fucking the economy.

On the one hand you have one camp who think they can sneak No Deal through as a consequence of Covid. On the other you have people who realise that it might be quite a good idea not to doubly screw your entire economy and to continue to be able to import medical supplies freely.

We now no that No Deal Brexit will involve passports to get into Kent and 7 mile queues of trucks because this has passed the lips of Gove. Y'know one of those who has been denying this for the past 4 years and presenting it as 'scaremongering'.

We are now firmly into the end game where businesses have to make plans based on the government plans and technology. Y'know the ones that aren't complete yet despite it only being 2 months to go.

Johnson has today done an interview about covid restrictions in the NE in which he got all the detail wrong. Its almost as if he forgot the lines he was instructed to recite and have no fundamental understanding of what rules he's putting into place to control the lives of the population.

As we lurch into October, there is speculation of full local lockdowns being brought in to try and deal with the spiralling number of cases which have to be the result, in no small part, of a dire lack of local testing facilities in the North of England. Meanwhile we've got The App finally. The one that doesn't work and the police and many health care staff are being advised not to use cos its so bobbins and will lead to them constantly isolating needlessly. Thats just something the rest of us have to contend with.

The feeling is that Cummings is up for No Deal. Johnson has been brainwashed into it, which lets face it, isn't too hard given how hard of thinking he is. However there is a growing sense that Johnson may now bottle it and declare victory in the jaws of defeat. That might be a premature hope.

We await the answer and the all important question of whether Christmas is indeed cancelled - that is for everyone who hasn't already cancelled it due to financial hardship...

Do NOT scapegoat immigrants for the gross inequality and lack of social mobility

Classic rightwing populist blame game

There is definitely a discussion to be had about immigration
BUT
that is nothing to do with the UK's deep structural problems and bad choices going back to long before there was any significant immigration

The UK chose for years after WW2 to squander resources into trying to keep its empire,
then chose the hard right Anglo American model of low taxes, blame the poor for their problems,
instead of the social contract model of much of continental Europe

The UK chose to run down its public services and the welfare state, to give tax cuts to the better off

The UK chose to keep its deference to the upper classes, making its model even more socially unequal than the US

Immigrants did NOT make these choices for the UK

So don't spout the rightwing dog whistles

Many "continuity agreements" are temporary placeholders,
until the other countries see the post-Brexit trade deal - if any

The discussions with S Korea are ongoing, for what happens next
Classifying of Chinese components is part of those discussions

Waited with baited breath for statement from EU. Short and to the point. UK has broken good faith and we gonna sue the arse off you lol! Has given UK a month to respond. Meanwhile they will continue to try and make a deal. So apparently it won't phase Boris or his lackies according to SKY tv.

.

My immigration post was in reply to Pepperwort

To be fair, Clav has not afaik blamed immigrants for out problems,
She'd defend BJ and the Tory government even if they were bringing in a milllion more !

7 Sep "Supply Lines"
"So the inevitable collision this winter of an abrupt split from the European Union and a Covid-19 resurgence has the government, industry and consumers here asking: Is Britain’s heavily import-reliant economy resilient enough to withstand both shocks?"

"Mark Whitworth, the CEO of U.K. port operator Peel Ports for the past decade, says in an interview that he’s “absolutely certain it is for a variety of reasons.”

"Besides the economy’s recovery, Whitworth says there are structural changes underpinning U.K. trade — more shipping capacity, storage space and entry points — that should help minimize potential Brexit snarls, like those Bloomberg’s Joe Mayes reported about last week."

"The shipping industry is already anticipating potential logjams and finding ways around likely choke points. Peel owns and operates the Port of Liverpool’s 400 million-pound ($530 million) deep-water container terminal that opened in 2016."

"This week Liverpool will start handling a second weekly call from a container line bringing goods like fresh produce from Spain and Portugal. The service relies more on rail and reduces truck traffic on the well-worn routes across Europe, under or across the channel from France through U.K. terminals at Dover and Folkestone."

"Before 2021, though, leaving the EU’s customs union means working out the bugs of a new IT system."

“There’s still some work to do, but if we continue in the way that we are, I think it will be a problem that proves to be not as significant as the speculation around it,” says Whitworth, who says previous Brexit preparations that proved to be false dawns have been good practice for the real thing."

“Did we see a take-up in warehouse utilization? Yes we did. Did we see significant stocks built in advance of the world sort of falling off the cliff? Yes we did. Did it prove to be necessary? No it didn’t, and I think there’s been a whole load of lessons learned from that experience.”

www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-09-07/supply-chains-latest-u-k-faces-a-winter-of-brexit-covid-chaos

Unless BJ makes major concessions, I expect an acrimonious No Deal to happen on 1 January

The EU don't trust him or the government, so they would want clear penalties for reneging

The EU can read:
Tory Brexiters have been reported as wanted to grab any deal now, then renege after Covid is no longer causing economic damage

No Deal will enable the UK govt to reassess how over-ready their No Deal preparations really were
and let them decide what trade & other relationship they want with the EU

Obvious problems there:

• after the transition period, QMV won't apply and even a bare bones deal can be vetoed by any of the 27 members who wants a particular concession for their country

• the UK may be in a much weaker negotiating position if things go as badly as predicted by the experts - including veteran Leaver RNorth who at least meticulously researched the EU and possible Brexits for years

• Economic damage from COVID will be worsening that from No Deal
  A pandemic was not in anyone's calculations for Brexit damage before this year

However,
it has the great advantage politically that at least the hard Brexiters dream of No Deal and complete freedom of action will have been tested, maybe to destruction.

BJ's successor then will have more freedom and information to either
negotiate a much closer trade relationship with the EU,
or batten down on Pyongyang-on-Thames

Financial services firms operating in the U.K. have shifted about 7,500 employees and more than 1.2 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) of assets to the European Union ahead of Brexit -- with more likely to follow in coming weeks, according to EY.

Hasn't changed much since June 2019;

"£1 trillion of assets and 7,000 banking jobs moved from UK to EU so far, research finds"

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-city-london-jobs-financial-services-banking-impact-a8975711.html

Jan 2020 -
"More than 1,400 EU-based firms have applied for permission to operate in the UK after Brexit, with over 1,000 of these planning to establish their first UK office, according to a Freedom of Information request (FOI) by financial regulatory consultancy Bovill. The FOI provides evidence that London and the UK will continue to be a leading player on the global financial stage after Brexit."

www.bovill.com/london-set-to-remain-financial-services-capital-of-europe-as-over-1000-eu-firms-plan-to-open-uk-offices/

BigChocFrenzy

Agree, an age ago i read an opinion piece that stated the most likely outcome of any negotiation is that the UK becomes a rival to the EU.

Perhaps the only thing in the short term that can prevent this is a Biden win, should Trump get another 4 years, expect trade wars or worse with the EU.

Clav If No Deal makes little difference to Uk business and trade, then why on earth are Frost & co - apparently - trying so hard for a deal

Is it all just for show ?
i.e. they really want No Deal ?

BJ could have pleased all the ERG and most other Brexiters and Leavers if he'd just announced No Deal months ago

If No Deal makes little difference to UK business and trade, then why on earth are Frost & co - apparently - trying so hard for a deal

Well obviously a deal is preferable - but one the government is happy with.

@jasjas1973

BigChocFrenzy

Agree, an age ago i read an opinion piece that stated the most likely outcome of any negotiation is that the UK becomes a rival to the EU.

Perhaps the only thing in the short term that can prevent this is a Biden win, should Trump get another 4 years, expect trade wars or worse with the EU.

.... That was the Brexiters' fantasy

but a country of 67 million with major structural problems
and the repeated appointment of incompetent cronies to key jobs
that has just left deals that enable the great majority of its trade
left key agencies, certifications etc

is unlikely to become the Britannia Unchained rival to an established economic & regulatory superpower like the EU

Looks more like the EU will have a failed nuclear state on its Western borders, to match the one on its Eastern borders

Clearly almost all Tories / Brexiters think the UK will be fine after No Deal,
or at most a bare bones tariffs & quotas deal

The only way to be sure is to try it for 6 months or a year

Otherwise, the government will likely renege within a year on any deal they sign atm anyway,
once the Covid situation is no longer hammering the economy

🐿 "Astatine is the rarest naturally occurring element; it’s estimated that the total amount of this radioactive halogen present on Earth at any given moment is about 28 grams. Therefore, we will simultaneously have a Fabulous Deal and a triumphant No Deal!" 🐿

Running out of words now to express my digust at Johnson and Cummings and the devastation to the UK hapoening in front of our eyes

EU are beginning proceedings against the UK. Formal letter sent by the Commission to the UK gvmt because the UK didn't withdraw the bill.

Waited with baited breath for statement from EU. Short and to the point. UK has broken good faith and we gonna sue the arse off you lol! Has given UK a month to respond. Meanwhile they will continue to try and make a deal. So apparently it won't phase Boris or his lackies according to SKY tv.

Sadly though, this is grist to the Brexit mill. Nasty EU bullying us, wah, wah. Now whether the general public will buy it has to be debatable. People didn't buy Cumming's Barnard Castle story after all.

I am just waiting for a country like China or Iran when the UK starts pontificating about something, for them to retort that the UK doesn't obey international law. An obvious flashpoint being Hong Kong, or the treatment of the Uighars.

For those who wonder about the 7 lorries .....

Every system has its bottlenecks.
Identify them and cripple them
ideally one after another for the most effect
and you can bring a whole infrastructure down very effectively.

Lorry number one would "misjudge" the junction of Woolcomber Street in Dover where it meets Townwall Street

its incredibly simple and I presume the security services are prepared
but it would be like a game of whack a mole while the shops emptied

@AuldAlliance

EU are beginning proceedings against the UK. Formal letter sent by the Commission to the UK gvmt because the UK didn't withdraw the bill.

Is my understanding that even if the UK wanted to implement the IMB it wouldn't happen till sometime in 2021 as Royal Assent won't happen this side of the New Year correct ?

They couldn't even break a treaty competently ?

@ListeningQuietly

For those who wonder about the 7 lorries .....

Every system has its bottlenecks.
Identify them and cripple them
ideally one after another for the most effect
and you can bring a whole infrastructure down very effectively.

Lorry number one would "misjudge" the junction of Woolcomber Street in Dover where it meets Townwall Street

its incredibly simple and I presume the security services are prepared
but it would be like a game of whack a mole while the shops emptied

If my memory is correct, it's still an offence to distribute or disseminate information that might be of use to a terrorist ....

.

DGR
I consider myself more of a whistle blower
as do friends in that part of the world who have been warning against such things for YEARS

If the current Government are not protecting us from known, public vulnerabilities,
they are failing in their legal and moral duty
oh wait ....

"Is my understanding that even if the UK wanted to implement the IMB it wouldn't happen till sometime in 2021 as Royal Assent won't happen this side of the New Year correct ?"

Not exactly
If the HoL passes the bill, then Royal Assent could happen this year if the govt really want to push it.

However, if the HoL vote it down, then - as I posted before - the government would have to either give up on the IMB or prorogue
and the rules on timing for the latter would result in Royal Assent in Q4 2021

So what did Gove say this week that pissed the EU off so much, that they decided not to wait to pursue legal remedy now? Because last I heard they were taking the sit and wait philosophy?