Westministenders: Brevid

[RedToothBrush]

The government have FINALLY started to treat no deal brexit and covid as one entity in terms of fucking the economy.

On the one hand you have one camp who think they can sneak No Deal through as a consequence of Covid. On the other you have people who realise that it might be quite a good idea not to doubly screw your entire economy and to continue to be able to import medical supplies freely.

We now no that No Deal Brexit will involve passports to get into Kent and 7 mile queues of trucks because this has passed the lips of Gove. Y'know one of those who has been denying this for the past 4 years and presenting it as 'scaremongering'.

We are now firmly into the end game where businesses have to make plans based on the government plans and technology. Y'know the ones that aren't complete yet despite it only being 2 months to go.

Johnson has today done an interview about covid restrictions in the NE in which he got all the detail wrong. Its almost as if he forgot the lines he was instructed to recite and have no fundamental understanding of what rules he's putting into place to control the lives of the population.

As we lurch into October, there is speculation of full local lockdowns being brought in to try and deal with the spiralling number of cases which have to be the result, in no small part, of a dire lack of local testing facilities in the North of England. Meanwhile we've got The App finally. The one that doesn't work and the police and many health care staff are being advised not to use cos its so bobbins and will lead to them constantly isolating needlessly. Thats just something the rest of us have to contend with.

The feeling is that Cummings is up for No Deal. Johnson has been brainwashed into it, which lets face it, isn't too hard given how hard of thinking he is. However there is a growing sense that Johnson may now bottle it and declare victory in the jaws of defeat. That might be a premature hope.

We await the answer and the all important question of whether Christmas is indeed cancelled - that is for everyone who hasn't already cancelled it due to financial hardship...

That's another issue of course: getting it imported and transported. Food for Britain will take longer to transport, and of course the EU lies between us. It's not that simple. Nothing ever is.

Brexit and RUles of Origin

www.cer.eu/insights/brexit-and-rules-origin-why-free-trade-agreements-≠-free-trade

"New EU free trade agreements such as EU-Japan have provisions allowing for the possibility if both the EU and Japan have a free trade agreement with the same partner.

However, it is unlikely that the EU will rush into reopening negotiations with existing FTA partners in order to make life easier for the UK. 🤦🏻‍♀️

Post-Brexit, if EU-based exporters do struggle to use EU FTAs due to UK content no longer qualifying it will ultimately lead to them buying components from businesses in the 27 instead.

The UK government has floated diagonal cumulation in the replaced EU free trade agreements, but without involving the EU.
Under this approach, the UK would convince the FTA partner to continue to allow EU inputs to be treated as UK-originating, and leave it up to the EU whether they want to negotiate the reverse.

However, such a concession will not come cheap.
British officials have said that, in return, Korea is asking for Chinese inputs to its cars to be treated as though they were Korean.
Such a concession would incense UK car makers.
< just as a similar concession to the UK would likely infuriate German, French, Spanish, Italian, Czech etc carmakers >

The UK could also explore ways to reduce the compliance burden of rules of origin,
for example by requiring 30 per cent local value added, rather than 55.

Other measures could be taken to waive rules of origin on goods attracting a tariff of, say, below 5 per cent.
This will, however, not be something Britain can decide unilaterally, and will require agreement from its FTA partners

Unfortunately for the UK, existing trends suggest qualifying requirements will get tougher rather than looser:
Trump is pressing for higher thresholds in his renegotiation of NAFTAA^."

This chart helps illustrate how interwoven international supply chains are in "UK" goods

You need to look at maps for real, not just copy and paste to make sense of what I posted.

I tried - it didn't make sense at all.

I thought the Ukraine/Russia connection was amusing.

Fuck me. I know the thread has moved on a bit (meandering occasionally through some hazelnut-strewn uplands that are just as sunless as the post-Brexit UK, so that's fiiiiine, then) but those "ideas" Mistigri posted about making waves to send migrants Francewards are like a modern day Academy of Lagado from Gulliver's Travels.

When the Home Office is satire, you know you're in deep shit.

Thanks to TheElements for the factoids.

Clav - Trade is always easiest with one's nearest neighbours.

Especially ones with which we have such close historical ties.

When are you going to realise Brexit was a power struggle/grab and zilch to do with what's best for the UK?

Clav
I tried - it didn't make sense at all.
Oh bless.
I thought I could not really be more obvious with the end of transition topics I've covered.
Just shows that you C7P based on keywords not context

About 55% of the UK's fresh fruit & veg comes from the EU.
Difficult to get fresh from further afield, quite apart from quality control concerns and lower standards

@jasjas1973

Clav - Trade is always easiest with one's nearest neighbours.

Especially ones with which we have such close historical ties.

When are you going to realise Brexit was a power struggle/grab and zilch to do with what's best for the UK?

... Dedicated Tories have switched off their brains for the duration and are in automatic defence mode of the party. It's an existential emergency for them

Two massive fuckups in parallel: Brexit and Covid

One of which is entirely self-inflected and will be a unique additional burden on the UK,
while everyone else is "only" struggling to recover from the deep Covid recession

Maybe the economic aftermath will be called the "Brevid Depression"

BigChocFrenzy

What your diagram has to do with seven of Putin's lorries I have no idea. You obviously didn't understand either.

Think I need a glass of wine...

LQ - with your real knowledge of logistics, in particular with regard to cross-channel routes, I can believe your comment about 7 lorries.

So, I've been trying to work out just where the 7 strategically placed lorries would be (I presume that your conjecture goes back to your experience of a judicial use of a dead man's switch on an artic).

So, off the top of my head, and without looking at maps, I'm thinking: 2 at Dover (although one might do it ) just to really fuck the port , Harwich, Holyhead, Hull, Grimsby, Portsmouth and possibly the Tunnel (if only one is required at Dover). Most of them have restricted access, so even blocking one access/egress road would quickly result in queues backing up.

And unintentionally, I've ended up doing that alphabetically

Anyway, it doesn't need Putin . It just needs zealous proper checking of documents which will take time, even if they're correct at these locations to bring imports/exports to a standstill

I have to laugh at Clavinova's response to the climb down on fishing - ' a perfectly reasonable concession' - pah! Where is your spirit - why aren't you planning to blockage the fishing ports? This is one of the things which the brexiters have banged on and on about - how we are not going to concede anything for our fishing industry. (An industry which is now minute, but we will let that pass.)

@Clavinova

BigChocFrenzy

What your diagram has to do with seven of Putin's lorries I have no idea. You obviously didn't understand either.

Think I need a glass of wine...

... Tha chart was illustrating the consequences of a logjam

==> Are you Raab ?

UK supermarkets and grocery shops need free-flowing goods trucks from the EU
So do JIT manufacturing

@Peregrina

I have to laugh at Clavinova's response to the climb down on fishing - ' a perfectly reasonable concession' - pah! Where is your spirit - why aren't you planning to blockage the fishing ports? This is one of the things which the brexiters have banged on and on about - how we are not going to concede anything for our fishing industry. (An industry which is now minute, but we will let that pass.)

... The industry that sold off most of their fishing quota for an easy profit ... ?

Why would the EU trust this PM not to renege on any negotiated deal, with IMB II the following month:

Boris Johnson has run out of rope

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-has-run-out-of-rope-brexit-coronavirus-parliament/

EU leaders will want to nail down every last detail of an agreement to prevent any attempt by Johnson to wriggle out of it once the coronavirus pandemic has passed

(a course favored by some hard-line Brexiteers on the Tory benches, who admit the government is unlikely to risk a no-deal scenario in January while business is suffering an economic hit).

The mistrust might also make it harder to secure U.K.-EU cooperation in other areas,
such as security, criminal justice and asylum, to London’s cost.

The threat to break international law will also likely be bad for his key aim of establishing a Global Britain, with lucrative trade deals around the world.
...
But permanent revolution must also be combined with competent government, and we’ve seen the opposite of competence since the election, notably on the coronavirus

Oh for fucks sake.

This isn't even funny anymore.

Hmmm.

Lots of stories about what to do with migrants.

Perhaps it’s the influx of Cummings’ weirdos and lateral thinkers. They should be put on a retired ferry and cast adrift in the South Atlantic.

This isn't even funny anymore.

It's a populist government, it was never supposed to be funny. Its what millions of people either voted for directly or enabled through apathy/sitting on their hands in December 2019.

What would it do to make the scales fall from the eyes of the Tory voters

If the composition of the Conservative party in Parliament has significantly changed then that's because moderates have left it.

If Louise and Clav are examples of Tory voters, then going by comments posted here, Louise would be an example of a Tory voter paying attention to the expulsion of the moderates and considering alternative voting options.Whereas Clav might be an example of a determined supporter of any government or politician with the Tory stamp and will never reconsider.

Atm neither Trump nor Johnson care about losing the moderates. With their journalistic/entertainment backgrounds they instinctively or with careful cold calculation are relying on showmanship (and I put all of the Home Office suggestions for dealing with migrants and/or refusing to criticise white supremists in this category) to attract and keep a new breed of Tory and Republican voter. It is the equivalent of political click bait. And it works.

In the last four years, both politicians already have pulled their respective political parties far to the right. Relying on hyperbole and hysteria reflects their inability to govern by logic and reason, as well as their desire to entrench power. By definition this political base is 100x more fervent and committed and will happily go along with centralising power commensurate with an increasing destruction of our civil liberties and laws. Believing such actions will always apply to 'other'.

As long as the Tory supporting press fails to report on this alarming turn of governing, supporters including my family will only realise this, if ever, when it is far far too late and a Robespierre moment is upon us all.

To be fair, everywhere has seen a resurgence in the Far Right, but the USA and UK are easy pickings for them, thanks to the FPTP system and a convenient press.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

🐿 "Humans have 23 pairs of chromosomes, our nearest living relatives the chimpanzees have 24 pairs. The reason for this is that human Chromosome 2 is effectively the fusion of chimpanzee Chromosomes 12 and 13. Therefore, our trade negotiations are going amazingly well!" 🐿

@GhostofFrankGrimes

This isn't even funny anymore.

It's a populist government, it was never supposed to be funny. Its what millions of people either voted for directly or enabled through apathy/sitting on their hands in December 2019.

It's never been funny. This is a country with vast and increasing inequality, where most people's lives are dictated by what sex they are, who their mum and dad were and how much money they have got. It cannot feed its own people and has steadfastly refused to try to even life chances out: the services that might help have all been rolled back as the richest tighten their grip on the vast majority of resources. Unchecked immigration of people who are all fighting for a share of what meagre crumbs are dropped under the table, who do not share our values and culture on top and are bringing crime with them, are a major problem. Realistically we cannot keep importing these numbers of people while reducing the life chances of our own.

I do think it would not hurt at this point to have some knowledge of history, particularly the period of Roman collapse in Britain. We are in the middle of horrendously uncertain times.

Peregrina
I have to laugh at Clavinova's response to the climb down on fishing - ' a perfectly reasonable concession' - pah! Where is your spirit - why aren't you planning to blockage the fishing ports? This is one of the things which the brexiters have banged on and on about - how we are not going to concede anything for our fishing industry.

Well it does seem perfectly reasonable to me - "The catches of EU fishermen would be “phased down” between 2021 and 2024 to offer time for European coastal communities to adapt to the changes." Sorry British fishing folk. I suppose the trick is to make it appear that we've made a huge concession, when in fact we haven't - and 3 years isn't a long time at all.

prettybird
And unintentionally, I've ended up doing that alphabetically

Ideally you would have placed Grimsby before Harwich, Holyhead and Hull.
Liverpool if you are looking at UK ports? I confess, I thought LP was positioning her lorries on the continent/ROI.

BigChocFrenzy
British officials have said that, in return, Korea is asking for Chinese inputs to its cars to be treated as though they were Korean.

Perhaps that can has been kicked down the road - the UK signed a continuity trade agreement with South Korea after the article in your link was written.

RedToothBrush
This isn't even funny anymore.

Apparently Priti Patel asked for a portfolio of ideas from other countries - that's exactly what she got!

I have already posted this;

Brussels 2 September 2020;
"EU money can be used to offshore migrants on boats."

"EU purse strings are open for member states to hold migrants on boats offshore - under certain legal conditions."

"The statement by the Brussels-executive on Tuesday (1 September) follows Maltese media reports that the government in Valletta intends to spend over €1m a month to detain migrants and refugees on a large Cypriot-flagged passenger ship."

euobserver.com/migration/149294

Deluge ?
Torrent ?
Flood ?
Cataract ?
Tsunami ?

This is becoming like the worst text based video game ever, and we've reached level 4. Can Clav and chums hang on in there and c'n'p their way to level 5 ?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/brexit-prompts-7-500-finance-jobs-1-6-trillion-to-leave-u-k

Financial services firms operating in the U.K. have shifted about 7,500 employees and more than 1.2 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) of assets to the European Union ahead of Brexit -- with more likely to follow in coming weeks, according to EY.

About 400 relocations were announced in the past month alone, the consulting firm said in a report on Thursday that tracks 222 of the largest financial firms with significant operations in the U.K. Since Britain voted to leave the bloc in 2016, the finance industry has added 2,850 positions in the EU, with Dublin, Luxembourg and Frankfurt seeing the biggest gains.

From next year, firms in Europe’s financial capital will lose their passport to offer services across the EU. They will have to rely on the bloc granting the U.K. so-called equivalence for them to do business with customers in the region, who account for up to a quarter of all revenue in London. With the EU far from certain to grant that access, firms are having to beef up their continental presence.

“As we fast approach the end of the transition period, we are seeing some firms act on the final phases of their Brexit planning, including relocations,” said Omar Ali, U.K. financial services managing partner at EY. “This is despite the pandemic and consequent restrictions to the movement of people.” Many firms are still in a “wait and see” mode, and a flurry of further moves could follow soon, according to Ali.

(contd)