Westministenders: Don't forget to stockpile. Again.

[RedToothBrush]

The government is telling pharmacists and drug manufactures to stockpile drugs ahead of the end of transition on 31st December.

In the middle of a pandemic.

What could go wrong?

hence most Nazis were let off by the Western allies and allowed in the military, big business, science etc

And on the QT most of the upper classes were quite happy with this, because they still believed in Nazi ideology, but it was no longer possible to admit to it.

Not all, by any means - there were those who liberated the camps and were utterly sickened by what they saw.

Many of the wealthy, the aristocrats, the conservatives in the UK supported Hitler and fascism,
The Duke of Windsor ....

partly out of "Blood & Soil" nationalism & racism, especially anti-semitism,
partly because they were opposed to communism, or even socialism - higher taxes to help the poorest

Oswald Mosely's Blackshirts had much the same composition as the EDL and the so-called Democratic Football Lads Alliance today, a mix of wc and lower mc, all spoiling for a punchup.

The famous Battle of Cable Street is when the left fought the fascists to prevent a Blackshirt march and rally

Letting fascists have a platform doesn't work, as my old Israeli Professor told me - and he was a Holocaust survivor, so an expert witness

A few conservatives opposed fascism early on and fought against Franco in the very bloody Spanish Civil Warof the 1930s

Notably a certain Ted Heath, who later fought in WW2 and later still became Conservative PM in 1970
He led us into the Common Market, driven by his wartime experiences and his dream of the UK as part of a peaceful Europe.
I attended his speeches in 1975, at the referendum rallies

Many conservatives of his era shared his experiences and pro-Europe orientation

Thenn they retired and the City spivs took over, then the ideologues ....

Back to exams:

The obvious is to check how well the Ofqal model does in predicting the 2019 results .....

Jon Coless@JonColes01* (former DG in Dept Ed)

In simple terms:
Ofqual say that their model has about 60% predictive accuracy on average across A level subjects.

That is:
40% of grades would have been different had exams been sat 🤯
......

1. Ofqual has released information on accuracy of grading:

roughly 45-65% at A level depending on subject.

See graph - each blob is a subject:
middle top is biology- most accurate at ~67%.
Even here a third of grades likely to be inaccurate.

1. Method used here:

model applied to 2019 results and compared to actual grade distribution.

Assumes centre rank order perfect
i.e. measures their level of success in dealing with the centre-level uncertainties highlighted in this thread.

Whenever life gets you down
remember that the UK is part of Europe no matter what
turn it up loud and lose your inhibitions

Thanks listening... I may or may not be going to eurovision...

RTB
Eurovision is our family go to feel good weekend music.

This song will always be a fantastic memory at the Malta Carnival

and NO shitty Etonian politician will ever take those happy moments away

and at times like these, seeing past the fuckwits is the only way forwards

To be fair there were German aristocracy and gentry who didn’t support the Nazis - either on social grounds - the Nazis were generally seen as upstart head waiter types - or because they were educated and thought the Nazis were thick and violent.

Cf Diary of a Man in Despair by Friederich Reck.

Letting fascists have a platform doesn't work, as my old Israeli Professor told me - and he was a Holocaust survivor, so an expert witness

Quite. Being Liberal sometimes means saying ‘no’.

"Left" and "right" were invented in an industrial society
They have served their time
now its "open" and "closed"
and "identity" versus "reality"

hence why I do not share BigChocs stress about Piers Morgan being a beacon for Women's rights against Trans.
He is, and will always be, a wazzock
but he deals in facts not feelz

and old style party allegiances are splintering all over

Exam fiasco

For those interesting in the maths model and how badly the Ofqal model does, I've found the Ofqal report and quickly analysed it

They checked accuracy by using the model to predict the 2019 results
35-55% of grades are wrong, depending on subject, either too low or too high

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/amiibeingunreasonable/3994320-A-Level-disasters?msgid=99158570#

LIstening I don't stress about Piers Morgan at all
I read a couple of exasperating headlines, but then he's forgotten
He's been quite sensible - for him - about COVID

Fun fact: Dubya Bush’s grandfather (and obv George senior’s father) Prescott Bush, was a director/shareholder companies that profited from bankrolling of Nazi Germany. He was a director of BBH which was the US base for Fritz Thyssen.

His company's assets were seized in 1942 under ‘Trading with the Enemy’ Act, but he was never pursued beyond that.

Left vs right is about the distribution of essentials assets, which includes food but also health, housing and public transport

It is why I can completely ignore the fact that Merkel & the CDU - and to be fair most Germans ! - have v socailly conservative views on abortion, equal marriage, gay adoption etc
because they are only cultural issues

Good government is about providing a decent standard of living for nearly all the public (perfection is impossible), efficient public services, stability, calm competence, a liberal democracy

The CDU, like the SPD, is firmly opposed to fascism and racism - these are basic principles to avoid war and dictatorship

Another fun fact: Hugo Boss supplied Nazi uniforms including Wafen-SS and Hitler Youth uniforms.

Is 2020 the year that people realise the limitations of algorithms.

A not so fun fact: an ex of mine preferred German WW2/uniforms to British. I never looked at him the same after that.

Algorithms I use for work produce some very funky results, but, not being an IT specialist I thought perhaps the tech department was a bit crap. Not least became they don’t seem to understand how the monster they have created actually works.

Tatiana
Tomorrow is the anniversary of VJ day
it is also the 400th anniversary of the Mayflower leaving port

we Have to look forwards not backwards

Is 2020 the year that people realise the limitations of algorithms.
Get real
99.9% of the country could not give a shit

Its dark, we're wearing sunglasses

Find those happy moments folks
we're gonna need them xx

How the A-level results algorithm was fatally flawed

Disregarding Brexit, even COVID, the blame for both of which the govt can probably wriggle out of ...

If the govt let 35-55% inaccuracies stand - half of which will be downgrades - then many people will not foget or forgive,
neither parents nor affected students - who will soon all be of voting age
Hell, I'm outraged and I'm happily childfree

Surely we must have a U-turn to let teacher' grades stand - however politically dangerous, it can't be as bad a longterm vote loser as the alternative

https://tech.newstatesman.com/public-sector/how-the-a-level-results-algorithm-was-fatally-flawed

“What you have found, is that the algorithm has systematically privileged people who took, for example, classics at an independent school,
and systematically underprivileged people in those larger entry subjects at that same school,”

@TatianaBis

A not so fun fact: an ex of mine preferred German WW2/uniforms to British. I never looked at him the same after that.

.... Didn't realise you dated a Royal Do tell ....

@TatianaBis

Is 2020 the year that people realise the limitations of algorithms.

.... tbh, I think this will further reduce public trust in experts ... which would be OK in itself, critical thought is usally good - but it is nearly always replaced by trust in charlatans, of which there are many atm

Which is why Joe Lycett has his one man crusade against Hugo Boss, and changed his name by deed poll to infuriate them.

Off to spend a couple of months on my boat in the Med.
She's small, old and regrettably has no air con, but it will be good to get away from the UK for a while.

Have fun

@BigChocFrenzy

How the A-level results algorithm was fatally flawed

Disregarding Brexit, even COVID, the blame for both of which the govt can probably wriggle out of ...

If the govt let 35-55% inaccuracies stand - half of which will be downgrades - then many people will not foget or forgive,
neither parents nor affected students - who will soon all be of voting age
Hell, I'm outraged and I'm happily childfree

Surely we must have a U-turn to let teacher' grades stand - however politically dangerous, it can't be as bad a longterm vote loser as the alternative

[[https://tech.newstatesman.com/public-sector/how-the-a-level-results-algorithm-was-fatally-flawed]]

“What you have found, is that the algorithm has systematically privileged people who took, for example, classics at an independent school,
and systematically underprivileged people in those larger entry subjects at that same school,”

And yet at the end of that article Ofqual are quoted as saying there is no evidence that the model introduces bias. Very Trumpian.