Westminstenders: Just another DEADline

[RedToothBrush]

Today is the last scheduled day for talks with the EU.

We have til 30th June to ask for a transition extension. We won't.

That leaves us starring down the barrel of a no deal exit, when we still could be in a covid-19 crisis and the US may be in turmoil given recent events and the coming election...

It's not a pretty picture.

NAO report on COVID is interesting.
Just in Time planning
similar to how the Govt is treating Brexit
oh goody

Owen Jones has long been on my shit list for hypocritical wankers who have destroyed journalism which protects the people. Ive never made a secret of it. It enrage me precisely because he shits all over the people he says he's standing up for.

Jones. Hopkins.

Same thing.

The Tories won by a lot of clever manipulation though - the Good ole Boris line, who as shown with the floods was actually blardy useless when it came to sorting things out, and the demonisation of Corbyn, for want of a better word.

In my neck of the woods, can't speak for everywhere else, the local Tories are only slowly waking up to the fact that there has been a right wing coup in the party.

I also think the Black Lives Matter and the pitching of the Colston statue in the water were events led by a more working class demographic, so I did feel there was some hope.

Prince of Wales is English.

So is the Earl of Snowdon, although the Armstrong-Joneses were originally Welsh. That’s rather the point I was making about Scottish aristocracy - it’s interlinked with English.

Re Surkov - The Puppetmaster on BBC Sounds is definitely worth a listen. There's some annoying sound editing but the content is illuminating.

From Sam Lowe on Twitter re the Customs u-turn being reported in the FT:

@SamuelMarcLowe

A couple of points on this excellent scoop:

1. U-turn always likely, but COVID-19 made it inevitable; simply not enough time.
2. This isn’t a ‘no trade agreement’ issue, unilateral mitigations will need to apply even if there is an FTA

Ghost - you haven't followed these threads very closely if you think it's about gap years for us- yes they got a mention, but far more time has been spent on(in no particular order) GFA, jobs, businesses costs (which will effect jobs) food security and safety.

And yet it all seems to be viewed in the third person, as if centrists/middle class have no agency wrt Brexit. I've seen this in wider society, decent priviliged folk that seem to have swallowed the same tabloid lines on the "hard left" as right wingers. I've said it a thousand times the remain movement never read the room over the last 4 years. There is little admission of this and as a result we a have another Tory government that centrists seem mildly disappointed by(Corbyn out, Boris/Starmer in good outcome?). The fact that Owen Jones is singled out as supposedly being one of the worst opinion writers smacks of lack of awareness (Jones - the last boogey man of Corbyn's socialism?). We are at this point because of a toxic right wing press and yet people who cut and paste the news don't seem to to want to recognise this fully. They were embarked on their own little culture war were public railways appeared far more frightening than more austerity.

From the Peter Pomerantsev article in The Atlantic, linked earlier...
They repeat the great mantras of the era: The president is the president of “stability,” the antithesis to the era of “confusion and twilight” in the 1990s. “Stability”—the word is repeated again and again in a myriad seemingly irrelevant contexts until it echoes and tolls like a great bell and seems to mean everything good; anyone who opposes the president is an enemy of the great God of “stability.” “Effective manager,” a term quarried from Western corporate speak, is transmuted into a term to venerate the president as the most “effective manager” of all. “Effective” becomes the raison d’être for everything: Stalin was an “effective manager” who had to make sacrifices for the sake of being “effective.”

I am not sure the mockery of the value placed on stability in Russia is warranted. The 90s were a time of utter desperation there, and with the desperation went terror of complete destabilisation of the country, the rise of militias, criminal cartels, military coups, civil war, and a repeat of the history of the early 20th century - a cruel dictatorship, famines, the gulag up and running again. Russians value stability because they have seen the alternative.

How soon before Americans begin to value stability above all? And effective government? There are many who already do. Stability is going to look good in the UK within five years too.

When I asked them about Soviet-era dissidents, like my parents, who fought against communism, they dismissed them as naive dreamers and my own Western attachment to such vague notions as “human rights” and “freedom” as a blunder. “Can’t you see your own governments are just as bad as ours?” they asked me. I tried to protest—but they just smiled and pitied me.
Did they have a point?

A few willfully contradictory ideas:
'The United States'
'The United Kingdom'
'Brexit'
Most of the utterances of the Cabinet for a long time.

Is it possible that democratic capitalism has run its course in some parts of the West?

I've said it a thousand times the remain movement never read the room over the last 4 years.

Yes and no, because the original result was very close. A better PM would have said 'the results were close, we will investigate', kicking the can down the road a little, but justified. As when a meeting is tied and the Chair usually has the casting vote for the status quo with the recommendation to bring the matter back. When it comes round again, the position has usually changed and the matter is either more clear or it's died a death. But no, we didn't have that, and then the right wingers sensed their opportunity, as did Cummings with his wrecking ball tactics.

Think for example what would have happened if the election hadn't been called in December. Almost certainly another Referendum would have been on the cards. The time to have held that would have been the May elections, but then corona-virus hit and they got delayed. But we would still have been in a different place.

But this is where we are now, and at best Johnson has to present a climb down as nasty EU bullying us into doing something we don't want, or we crash out with No Deal, which the disaster capitalists, and those who are desperate to mimic the USA do want. However, corona virus has changed things, and has changed the public mood.

Math I completely agree. I read a lot of Chomsky in 2016 and came to the same conclusion. Every time I think back to Obama or even Cameron I do think how stable and "predictable" everything seemed. Battles needed to be fought but there were straight lines and processes. It's all up in the air now, for better or for worse, which is alarming but perhaps the precursor for real change?

There's some annoying sound editing yes to this! Where are the training the sound technicians? I've noticed this increasingly over the last 5 years; constant music over softly spoken people, dramatic music blaring about 2 mins before anything remotely dramatic happens (Homelands on Amazon Prime is a good example of this), snare drums going up and down all over the place to give pieces "an edge" . Pet peeve.

My morning has been spent wondering if it breaches Human Rights for trans folk if gender based medicine is applied re consent. We could be needing more gender based med IMO, esp re COVID and I can see a Jehova's Witness style situation coming. Special thanks to JK for making this debate possible

However, corona virus has changed things, and has changed the public mood.

I've not seen any significant evidence of this. Brexiteers still exist (currently "defending" statues). The Tories (like Trump) will continue to play to their base. If civil unrest is sparked by job losses, well the Tories have been there before haven't they? They were re-elected twice.

I'm afraid I agree with frank
I would love to think that covid-19 and the disastrous handling of it by the Govt has shown Tory voters exactly what they support...
I see no evidence for this.
Sorry.
Ex aides, ex MPs and ex journos do not make up a huge number of the uk population. Grear that they've finally found their spine but....who's listening to them?
Until the Express, the hate and the scum turn on johnson and his enablers then it's tory time as usual.
Those papers need to be careful though....their loyal readers noted the way they were told to after all....

Voted even!

Jones - the last boogey man of Corbyn's socialism?

No a bellend deserving of the same criticism as Jo Swinson actually. Complete middle class blindness. But do carry on.

Anyway

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12
Deaths involving COVID-19 - Interactive map
Use our interactive map to explore the number of COVID-19 deaths in your area.

Nick Stripe @ nickstripe_ons
THREAD – COVID local area and deprivation analysis

Today we have updated our spatial analysis to include all deaths registered and processed so far that occurred from Mar-May

Our interactive local level MSOA map can be found here [above]

An updated interactive Local Authority map is in section 4 (fig.4) of our report

For both the MSOA and LA maps you can select areas, months, and whether to include all deaths that occurred or only those where COVID was mentioned on death certs

^2/

London had the highest COVID-related age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) with 137.6 deaths per 100k persons (Mar-May)

This was significantly higher than any other region in Eng and more than a third higher than the region with the next highest rate (the NW)

3/

During May the region with the highest COVID-19 ASMR was the North East where the rate was double that of London

The South West region continued to have the lowest mortality rate overall and during each of the last three months

4/n

9 out of the 10 LAs in England and Wales with the highest COVID ASMRs were all London Boroughs

Brent = 210.9 deaths per 100k
Newham = 196.8 per 100k
Hackney = 182.9 per 100k

5/n

Outside-London the LAs with the highest COVID ASMRs were:

Middlesbrough = 169.2 deaths per 100k
Hertsmere = 161.6 per 100k
Salford = 159.9 per 100k

The LA with the highest rate in May from records processed so far was:

Preston = 51.1 per 100k

6/n

Looking across Local Health Boards in Wales those with the highest COVID-related ASMRs were:

Cardiff and Vale University Health Board = 103.8 deaths per 100k
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board = 97.8 per 100k
Aneurin Bevan University Health Board = 81.8 per 100k

7/n

Mortality rates are always higher in more deprived areas as a result of health inequalities. For example, life expectancy at birth differs by just under 10 years

But COVID-19 continued to have a proportionally higher impact on the most deprived areas

8/n

Analysis using the rural-urban classification shows a clear gradient in COVID-related ASMRs during this wave of the pandemic

Mortality rates are highest in the most urban areas and lowest in the most rural areas

9/n

"Major towns and cities" is a statistical geography for E&W, excluding London.
Boundaries cover the built-up area of each town or city

The highest COVID-related ASMR was in Salford = 199.6 per 100k

The lowest was in Hastings = 8.9 per 100k

10/n

Travel To Work Areas approximate labour market areas. Highest COVID-related ASMRs were in:

London = 138 per 100k
Sunderland = 131
Birmingham = 123
Burton = 122
Manchester = 119
Hartlepool = 119
Barrow = 117
Cardiff = 113
Slough = 113
Liverpool = 110
Wolverhampton = 110

11/n

All data can be found in our data tables

Note – analysis based on death occurrences is still incomplete due to the long tail of death registrations. This particularly affects deaths towards the end of May and deaths referred to coroners

12/12 - ENDS

We are at this point because of a toxic right wing press and yet people who cut and paste the news don't seem to to want to recognise this fully

Anyone who reads this thread should know that posters here are more than aware of the impact of the right wing press.

All this special pleading, Grimes, seems to boil down to: it wasn’t Corbyn’s fault (Brexit, the election result). It was Remainer’s fault who didn’t read the room, who were concerned about gap years, who didn’t grasp the effect of the hard right press - of course they bloody did.

It’s all nonsense. Corbyn failed the Labour Party and the country. As did all his supporters who failed to see that he was unelectable.

Jones is the epitome of middle class trying to pass himself off as working class. It's bullshit.

I don't think Owen Jones has ever tried to hide his background. As a working class person myself I certainly recognise his commentary from my own upbringing and community. He seems far more socially aware than "heart in the right place" liberals that spent 4 years marching on London and achieving sod all.

The fact that Jones' social commentary is seen has part of the problem epitomises just how out of touch some middle class remainers were, and still are. Its about time that bubble was burst.

Anyone who reads this thread should know that posters here are more than aware of the impact of the right wing press.

Given that I've posted how dumb/naive I think the LDs are/were, how corrupt and racist the Conservatives are, how inept and blind to social class and the erosion of rights the Labour Party are and spoken at length at the collapse of local journalism, the collapse of journalism, the role of journalism in upholding the principles of democracy and the rule of law and the simultaneous rise of extremism and click bait, you'd think I might have a case to argue I am aware of this more than most, but clearly not.

I stand corrected this morning.

All hail Owen Jones saviour of working class communities across the country everywhere. Especially Stockport where he went to school and his Daddy was big in the Labour Party and Oxford where he got his degree.

The story goes that when Edward 1 conquered Wales and built loads of castles, he promised the Welsh that he would give them a Prince who spoke no English. Then presented them with his baby son. Hence the motto Ich Dien, which is really a corruption of the Welsh eich dyn - your man.

There's one factual inaccuracy in that which calls into question the rest

"Ich Dien" is German ... (admitted still "nicked")

Owen Jones is a frightful misogynistic little shit.

He only went full on momentum loon when he realised that was the way to get on tv and sell books.

He was not a fan of Corbyn AT ALL til he saw the way the wind was blowing.

There's a word for people like that....they don't only 3exist on the right of politics...

He seems far more socially aware than "heart in the right place" liberals that spent 4 years marching on London and achieving sod all.

I don't know the first thing about Owen Jones. I don't pretend to be anything other than middle class, and I went on all the marches because I cared about being in the EU. I don't see that I have to pretend I was trying to support the working class or pretend I was one. That we didn't achieve anything was regrettable but I am still glad I tried.

DGR yes, I know that "Ich Dien" is German. I didn't say it was English. The story is supposedly illustrating how an English prince ended up with a German motto because they didn't understand Welsh, and didn't want to understand Welsh either.

It's all a made up story, but it's funny.

Owen Jones ain't perfect but we literally have Farage on our airwaves.

Those that should be opposing this terrible terrifying government instead fighting each other is so depressing. Massively respect all of you here, can we remain constructive & civil?

It's all a made up story, but it's funny.

Ah, I didn't realise. My browser humour checker hasn't been updated yet, so I'm still working to yesterdays rules.

The bit about the contempt for the Welsh language isn't made up.