My non expert opinion is that we are going to have either a second wave or just a plateauing continuation of the first one.
Still admitting young healthy people to ITU.
All the stats are around deaths. But even if you survive, a long ITU stay carries significant morbidity and we don't know what long term consequences of severe covid is (the CTs are grim, I cannot believe long term lung function won't be affected). I am still checking on patients I sent to ITU in April, they are still intubated.... that is a long stay that will be months/years of recovery, if they survive.
We are getting the re-admissions now, ie patient had covid in April, discharged but not really improving, now back in. This is a long illness for some.
Had a pt in their 50s die of covid yesterday, another 40 yr old to ITU.
None of the government measures make sense to me, they are all things we should have done in March, and many many people said we should have done in March and were told we were idiots / it wasn't possible / everything would be fine. Contact tracing in MARCH would have had an effect. Quarantining flight arrivals in MARCH would have had an effect. I don't know that they're exactly wrong now, but it all seems pretty hopeless.
Maybe the virus will just become less virulent? that does happen sometimes.The government are so unbelieveably incompetent I guess I've resorted to just hoping for nature to save us.
I have family in NZ and talking to them is so painful. I have never felt so ashamed to be british.
ANyway I've been working all the hours and am gonna try catch up with the news but it just makes me angry maybe I'll just drink coffee in my garden instead.