Westministenders: The Truth Isn't A Made Up Concept

[RedToothBrush]

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

Not George Orwell but often attributed to him. But a powerful statement with resonance nonetheless

BJ has to ask for an extension and so far he has refused
The EU would almost certainly agree to one

The EU would prefer a deal, but not a cake deal that damages their SIngle Market

Most of the ERG want No Deal / WTO and BJ doesn't want a fight with them

The other problem is that eateries, cinemas and other 'experience-led' retailers have been growing in importance on the UK's high streets.

No Deal isn't permanent

The UK can try out No Deal / WTO for a few months or a year,
to decide whether they want a US FTA instead

The kind of FTA the US want is not compatible with the FTA that the EU want
So BJ can choose one. Or neither

The govt's own calculations ar that a US FTA would only bring 0.6% to UK GDP - a lot less than what they are going to lose from leaving the SIngle Market

However, with the massive recession from COVID, many in the ERG think noone will notice yet more lost from GDP ....

No Deal isn't permanent

I don't know about that. So much damage could be done by No Deal, that there is no way back from it. Think about 1930s Germany - the Nazis were eventually defeated, but the Germany you live in now BigChoc is a different entity from the pre-war one, just in physical borders alone.

Or think of the Spanish Civil War - such events may heal eventually but leave scars.

Johnson and the ERG will go for the USA deal. I bet Johnson is kicking himself now that he relinquished his American citizenship - it would have given him a nice bolthole.

Papers:

peregrina The damage from No Deal would be economic, but the UK is a sufficiciently large economy to weather a year or so while it tries it on for size.

The main danger would be signing the very one-sided FTA that US and its big businesses want,
which would give the US far more power over the UK than the EU ever had - and no vote in US decisions, of course.

That FTA might tie down future UK governments with penalty clauses and real "Punishment beatings"

Thanks for that bedtime thought BigChoc. 3rd world country status, defaulting on future debts, here we come. Can we really not get the people selling us out to the US on some sort of treason charge? The amount of private money being thrown around by the topmost circle must be phenomenal. If ever there was some sign of the conspiracy theorists' new world order, this is surely it. Where are all these forces of cynicism when you need them.

@BigChocFrenzy

BJ has to ask for an extension and so far he has refused The EU would almost certainly agree to one

The EU would prefer a deal, but not a cake deal that damages their SIngle Market

Most of the ERG want No Deal / WTO and BJ doesn't want a fight with them

^This. Not sure if Hate was referring to my post, but in no way do I think, nor was I saying, that the momentum for no deal comes from the EU. The EU clearly want a deal. It's the UK or, more specifically, our beloved govt that is gunning for a no deal with the EU.

I'd really love to know what incentives are being offered for a trade deal with the US because it certainly isn't going to be for the benefit of the British public. Watching the US unravel doesn't bode well for becoming the 51st state.

Anyone got any salt.

You may need a large pinch of it, whilst looking at this. (You need to scroll down to see the map)

app.deckzero.com/deck/UK-Local-RZ-Index-Tracker-MTM4MjE2NjgyMTk

Its a local R tracker. As I say it really needs to be taken with a touch of skepticism.

You can also get a graph up which looks at how the R in a local authority has changed over time. (Click on run first, as the drop down menu allowing you to select whatever authority you want didn't appear until I did).

Strangely enough there is a small second peak which tops out on the 18th May my area where the R increased slightly. This smaller peak (which took the R above 1 in all of these cases) appears in the neighbouring 4 local councils. Looking through other authorities this isn't universal, but there is a pattern of an increase in the R which tops out around the 18th May in a sizeable number of authorities.

What happened just before that, which might have led to an uptick in the R?

BTW has anyone seen how the law has been changed in the last couple of days to redefine 'childcare' in stricter terms - it can't now be a family member. So this means you can't drive across the country for childcare reasons.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-laws-dominic-cummings-lockdown-childcare-relatives-a9542381.html

Yep, I posted that link upthread about the Cummings Goings-On presumably having forced that clarification.

Interesting!
R is 0.46 here apparently

Someone asked upthread about the discrepancy in the death figures yesterday. 111 declared (lowest for ages) but total increased by 556. Here’s an explanation, not sure I understand it, but it seems fishy to me.

mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1267498210609844224

Hester I agree. V fishy.
If I was of a suspicious nature, I'd assume they have been deliberately holding some deaths back to make it look like their daily figures were dropping at an "appropriate" pace according to SD/lockdown effects etc.

That was me @HesterThrale - thank you, I will have a look, (tho' I am not great with numbers so I would also be interested in others thoughts!)

Hannah White @drhannahwhite
Apparently the govt will whip its MPs tomorrow to vote for its motion abolishing remote voting on the basis that it is essential for govt business to restore in person sittings, & that a vote for the procedure committee amendments is a vote against getting Brexit done...

... so much for protestations from @JacobReesMogg that getting MPs back to Westminster is about restoring proper scrutiny. It seems the govt is worried that it won’t get all its manifesto and Brexit bills through as rapidly as it wants with the House sitting virtually...

... despite the fact that House authorities were making preparations for virtual bill committees and these were halted by the government (as @estwebber reported) and capacity to extend hybrid sittings in the chamber was getting better and better...

... in my view there will be a Q about the legitimacy of swathes of legislation passed in circumstances where large numbers of MPs are paired or have to cast their votes by proxy having been unable to speak in debates or propose amendments. Terrible for public trust in govt.

See our earlier report on the virtual Parliament here...

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/Parliament-coronavirus-government-scrutiny
Parliament’s role in the coronavirus crisis
Holding the government to account

delurks why do certain posters always announce when they're going to bed lurks

What surprises me more are the ones posting in the middle of the night knowing they are in Europe.
I'm out of it between 10pm and 7am.

Terrible for public trust in govt

The only "public" they're interested in are the public who already worship at the altar of Brexit and think the sun shines out of BJCum's arse and get snowed by word clouds and absorb three-word-slogans and chant ButCorbyn when the spaceship still hasn't landed.

chant ButCorbyn when the spaceship still hasn't landed.

Something centrists and Brexiteers have in common. Have we lost Keir down a forensic rabbit hole?

Matt Chorleyy@MattChorley*

Big row brewing over forcing MPs to vote in person.

As many as 250 MPs might stay away for health/age/travel/childcare reasons.
So if you live in their seat, you don't get a say.

And practicalities of voting while social distancing are crazy 1/4

Even with around 400 MPs, socially distancing along corridors and up stairs, the queue could stretch for a kilometre

This map is doing the rounds in parliament.

Members disperse

2/4

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mps-unhappy-over-voting-plans-told-to-join-the-queue-qtbpbrj62

There is a "rehearsal" this morning at 11am in the chamber.

However one parliament source texts:
"Perhaps we should change the route to go through Mogg's office - may have the benefit of making him see how ridiculous his system is.”

3/4

Cross-party anger at the idea of forcing MPs back, some having to declare private health info to explain absence.

Effectively discriminating against older/unwell workers.

If an employer was doing this, MPs would be furious.

Let battle commence... 4/4

.

Where is the mobilisation against no deal? Have we really been beaten down so badly we'll accept the worst and most wilful economic damage to our country without batting an eyelid?

I've had a lot of personal crap to deal with the last couple of months but I'm back to feeling extremely angry when I see what those ERG pirates want to do to us...