Westministenders: The Truth Isn't A Made Up Concept

[RedToothBrush]

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

Not George Orwell but often attributed to him. But a powerful statement with resonance nonetheless

oops, crosspost with red !

I thought we were still at level 4 and that the government had decided to relax restrictions DESPITE this, which is one of the reasons so many on SAGE have been publicly complaining.

imo, the Uk has just entered Lert 3, with R

However, if SAGE think R is still 1, then that is concerning.
Have Whitty & Vallance said anything on this ?

In Germany, most public health experts, e.g. the virologist Drossen who advises Merkel, didn't want to relax lockdown until R0 was down to 0.2 or 0.3,
but Drossen said he accepted Merkel had to balance other factors vs the perfect public health strategy

Bcf, deaths in the Greater Manchester area in the past week have been HIGHER than than the previous fortnight. I know deaths in the last week have been higher in the NW as a whole compared to the previous week.

There is concern about Bury as it seems to have flatlined and isn't yet seeing a decline.

I'm trying to keep an eye on it but the data is a pain in the arse to find and compare as no one seems to be really following this at present although it's been briefly commented on by both the Manchester Evening News and BBC Northwest Tonight in passing.

It's also why the councils here have been so difficult about the schools reopening here tomorrow (many in the NW are saying not next week - many are either the week after or the following week at this stage). There's also been complaints by the Greater Manchester mayor that they aren't getting proper data on numbers because its owned by the private sector and they are saying Gdpr is a reason not to share this information (gdpr does have exemptions which could be used here).

So I'm dubious that the whole of England is at stage 3.

Also the nightingale at the Gmex (Manchester Central) is still operational.

When cases are sufficiently low, then national R0 going above 1 for a few days seems to be of mathematical interest rather than of epidemiological importance

At least, that has been the case in Germany, where a few v small local outbreaks temporarily raised R0 > 1,
but cases & deaths have continued to decline - e.g. only 6 deaths registered yesterday, 24 on Friday - and R0 fell again.
This may happen several times over the next months, but R0 atm is not a concern

However, imo UK case and death levels are not yet low enough to cope with R0>1
especially since mass track & trace seems to be a fantasy until at least July, so that infections could quickly increase.

Test data still not being available to local govt is absurd

I doubt if it's genuinely GDPR - because then why is this not the case in other European countries which are very strict on the rules

We are still currently officially at Level 4 and 'Shielders' are being encouraged out? Beggars belief, quite frankly!

It's not gdpr.

There are national crisis exemptions to gdpr which cover health crisis.

Manchester and certainly the NW are not just "small localised hotspots" like e.g. care homes or meat plants, which can be locked down without much concern.

Infection would soon spread within and from such large populations, if not brought swiftly udner control.
No surprise if there is concern for teachers and also families of pupils.

The govt have either forgotten to update their colourful Lert level to 3,
or it's under public health control and Whitty refuses to do so

Whatever
Lert 3 is also far away from sending out the shielders

Shades of "back with your shield or on it"

It was mentioned at one of the briefings that the alert system is under independent control. The inference that the government don't get to decide when yo change it, but no clear indication who does get to decide.

Grown ups I hope.

I thought I heard last week from a BoJo address he said we were moving to Level 2 because I remember at the time thinking when did we move to Level 3.

My analysis about people shielding. By telling people they don’t need to shielding unless they want to

• they are stopping (food) deliveries and support to this group
• as this are mainly volunteers, these people are also ‘free’ to go back to work. (Or they will have less volunteers as people go back to work)
• working age people are have no reason to not be at work as not shielding

Basically economy first

We need a new meme of DC with a miners helmet - looking for the truth I imagine

Digging himself ever deeper into a deeply dug hole.

Good luck my fellow herd

Friend has sent photos of a shop that reopens today. People were queuing to get into the car park at 6.30am. There were dozens in the car park by 8.30.

Shop doesn't open until 10am.

Basically economy first

It's not even that. As I know has been pointed out on this thread before, you can't separate public health from the economy during an epidemic. If this sudden easing leads to a surge in infections and public fear rises, it won't matter how bullish the government is - they will be viewed by the public as abandoning "the people" in a crisis. And then they have to deliver a Brexit that they can successfully blame on the EU afterwards. I fancy their chances of passing that particular buck rather less that I did before this crisis began.

Friend has sent photos of a shop that reopens today. People were queuing to get into the car park at 6.30am. There were dozens in the car park by 8.30.[] Shop doesn't open until 10am.

Weirdly, we caught an old Timeshift documentary on iPlayer last night about bread. The showed news clips of the bakers strike in the 70s (remember that golden age we're trying to go back to ) and the reporter asked a couple of ladies how long they'd been queueing for their loaves - it was since 5am.

I have that picture in my mind.

DGR
That bread strike was when I learned to bake bread
so that my siblings and I could have packed lunches for school

We are still at 4 lerts, but we are "transitioning" to 3 lerts.

We are like a 4 y/o who insists they are nearly 5.

If this is what winning looks like, gawdalone knowns what losing would have been like ?