Westminstenders: No pubs till Christmas?

[RedToothBrush]

Today the news has moved towards acknowledging covid-19 reality: Nicola Sturgeon has explicitly stated that some social distancing will carry on until the new year in all likelihood.

When Matt Hancock asked if this was true for England too, he refused to say yes but he said that Scotland was working from the same framework as England.

In case anyone does still need this spelling out, this means the outlook for the hospitality and leisure industries is bleak.

There are extremely unlikely to be many enjoying a holiday in the sun any time soon, whether it be in Devon or Spain.

We won't be celebrating birthdays in restaurants nor having a pint in the pub.

Conversations on the doorstep from a couple of metres away is as good as it gets.

That means if you can't adapt you may not survive.

To add into the mix changes to customs to those companies who are operating seems insanity. But that's a political not a scientific decision to be made.

Whether reality in this will kick in, in the next six weeks or so before EU budgetary decisions relating to an extension have to be made remains to be seen.

Until then, there is no news but covid-19.

DGR thanks for the articleRe: Simon Dolan....

”and now lives in Monaco” End of discussion.

My thought about Dolan too, Loiuse. I wonder how much tax he is avoiding?

Absolutely! Peregrina

Is test-counting a creative art like PPE counting ?

Lewis Goodall Retweeted JamesClaytonn@JamesClayton5*

Spot the difference.
The DH quietly dropped the phrase 'tests carried out' from their test reporting.

We now know that at least 40,000 tests included in yesterday's figures are YET to be carried out
< sneaky buggers >
[[https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam
Faisal Islam]]m@faisalislam*

My colleague @BBCHughPym reports that
Government has included tests sent out to those who booked online but not actually completed,

Govt sources told him it is the only way to count them as it’s hard to track them when swabs are sent back to the labs...🤔

lack of data is not the problem.

lack of Political will is.

This.

My thoughts on what the pattern of demographics would be are spot on with the data out today on ethicity and economics.

Its not exactly hard to work out from previous data we've had for years.

BCF "it’s hard to track them when swabs are sent back to the labs"

Much easier to simply redefine what 'test' means. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised hat the Government is channelling Humpty Dumpty ("a word ... means just what I choose it to mean").

Louise
One thing that strikes me though is whether the Ward overlay captures accurately where people live? or whether some wards might be hugely over represented in the stats because said Ward happens to have a hospital located in it!
Death certificates are by home address not place of death

THe racial breakdown is astounding - but then with Churches in London still selling quack cures ..

Nothing to do with quack cures but vitamin D levels.
Plenty of research ongoing but preliminary results show that low vitamin D levels are linked with high number of critical cases. Being part of the BAME community means a higher risk of low vitamin D levels. That’s also probably the same reason why the first two doctors who died were also part of the BAME community.

Plus of course you have the deprivation factor. The poorer you are, the more likely you are.
BAME are over represented in the poorer groups.

There is no hospital in my ward. There are deaths recorded on the ONS granular data.

There isn't a distortion based on this.

One area in my borough has definitely got a particularly big outbreak compared with elsewhere though.

@DGRossetti

Of course you’re right, it was indeed yesterday so obviously it’s nothing to worry about.

BBC live feed were reporting the fudge on the 100,000 tests a day.

Its all to do with the release of testing kits. The government are counting the ones sent out as part of their strategy. BUT these tests in some cases are simply on order (not yet sent out) or have been sent out but no been sent back.

Previously, only instances in which the swab had been processed through a lab were counted as a test.

But the new definition - added on 27 April - included tests "posted to an individual at home".

On 29 April, the definition was extended yet further to also encompass "tests sent to... satellite testing locations".

According to figures released on 30 April, home testing kits accounted for over 18,000 of the daily tests, or a quarter of the total.

I wonder about the accuracy of home testing, unless of HCPs

I gather from people who've had these tests that the swaps have to go quite far up nose or down throat

I am not squeamish
I am scientifically literate
I would never trust myself to take a medical sample that would guide decision making on a global pandemic.
INSANE
I have chronic rhinitis so could easily give a false negative to a non expert

I think the idea of the home testing kits are ridiculous- just window dressing.

Asking people to swab the back of throat and nasal passages - it's just not going to happen correctly.

I had read early on, that even for trained professionals it's tricky to do the swan properly- so you have to think all the home tests are just a waste of money.

I had nasal swaps taken as part of a study in to the flu vaccine. It was mighty unpleasant and I'm sure I would not have been able to do it to myself.

questionamarknow
Churches selling Covid cures
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52480133
Covid cannot hurt black Christians
www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/tanzanian-president-declares-3-days-national-prayer-help-defeat-coronavirus
Covid does not affect muslims
www.arabnews.com/node/1661251/world

Financial Poverty is not the only factor sadly

The UK needs to give its head a wobble
AGAIN
www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/01/indian-students-trapped-in-uk-by-coronavirus-actually-starving

Ah, the stupidity of religion strikes again. When will people learn.

I’m not saying it doesn’t happen Listening.
I’m saying that I don’t think it’s the main reason for the race difference re death from the CV-19

I've had chronic rhonitis too, for over 25 years

It won't be why so many BAME doctors died

BCF
It won't be why so many BAME doctors died
The truth will come out in the wash
but will be more likely to do with the fact that NHS staff shortages in big cities are filled by BAME doctors
and the biggest case load is in big cities
so their statistical exposure is orders of magnitude higher than doctors in other areas
rather than anything about any race or even vitamin D (which would show up as higher deaths in northern latitudes than southern which does not seem to be the case)

Varadkar has published plans to ease lockdown in 5 stages from 18 May.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Irish government to relax some restrictions
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52509390

Listening VitD is much higher in Scandi countries, due to eating so much oily fish and VitD-supplemented dairy

There are other differences too:
higher rate of single person households, lower population density, keep their personal distance from each other - not huggy at all

The whole group of Scandi countries has much lower death rates than the rest of Europe, by an order of magnitude
.... except for Sweden, which without lockdown is nearer to countries like the UK (but still lower)

Noticeabley higher death rate of Sweden compared to other Scandi countries, not surptisingly,
even when normalised wrt population: