Westminstenders: No pubs till Christmas?

[RedToothBrush]

Today the news has moved towards acknowledging covid-19 reality: Nicola Sturgeon has explicitly stated that some social distancing will carry on until the new year in all likelihood.

When Matt Hancock asked if this was true for England too, he refused to say yes but he said that Scotland was working from the same framework as England.

In case anyone does still need this spelling out, this means the outlook for the hospitality and leisure industries is bleak.

There are extremely unlikely to be many enjoying a holiday in the sun any time soon, whether it be in Devon or Spain.

We won't be celebrating birthdays in restaurants nor having a pint in the pub.

Conversations on the doorstep from a couple of metres away is as good as it gets.

That means if you can't adapt you may not survive.

To add into the mix changes to customs to those companies who are operating seems insanity. But that's a political not a scientific decision to be made.

Whether reality in this will kick in, in the next six weeks or so before EU budgetary decisions relating to an extension have to be made remains to be seen.

Until then, there is no news but covid-19.

Thanks RTB

I'm not too concerned about mass gatherings or pubs etc. But I will be seeing my partner and my family. And I don't think I'm alone in that sentiment.

It seems to me the govs stance is "we're listening to the science" but what they're actually doing is listening to public opinion and the people who shout the loudest.

I cannot imagine a situation where the travel, leisure, and entertainment industries are just written off. I don't think it will happen. My guess is they are just waiting for the tide to turn in public opinion (which is inevitable) and when that happens they'll be allowed to open up.

What's the first thing you'll do when...
PUB

Thanks, red 💐

Maybe no indoor pubs - or restaurants - until spring
so this summer could see eating and drinking at well-spaced tables outside

Social distancing - that at least bans crowds - could be until spring,
or even until a reliable treatment or vaccination has been rolled out
So 2 years ?

Maybe sports events could be in empty stadiums - but what about the players & athletes ?
They'd likely be willing to suck up the risk, being the fittest of the fit and paid millions
Anyway, if schools can open .....

Pmk

So no travel at all? Or you can travel to Devon but don't expect any pubs, restaurants, museums to be open.

They're going to need to redesign the exam system completely, aren't they, at all levels. No GCSEs and A level exams this year - and possibly not next year either, so how's that going to work in the new reality?

No travel at all?

What's your essential reason for transporting virus from a hotspot to somewhere which is reasonably clear from covid-19?

I do think you are going to have a pretty good reason to travel long distances.

I can't see it being deemed a good idea anything but essential travel.

What is likely to be relaxed is to allow small groups, seeing family and friends etc
< 20 then < 50 people eating & drinking outdoors in private parties, samll weddings etc

but any business that wants to survive must adapt its business model to incorporate whatever level of social distancing is kept

Holiday flights will likely be banned for the duration,
but cars might be allowed, because it avoids hours millings around with umpten thousand others at an airport.

Some airlines likely to go under
Don't mention cruise ships ....

No GCSEs and A level exams this year - and possibly not next year either, so how's that going to work in the new reality?

I think there will be for exam years.

Certain years will be prioritised at the expense of others...

"What's your essential reason for transporting virus from a hotspot to somewhere which is reasonably clear from covid-19?"

Or thousands bringing more back to the UK from a worse hotspot

Louise and I think mrslaughan if you read that slide carefully it's clear that it's the percentage of ICU bed capacity taken up by covid patients. Don't forget there are thousands of people in ICU for other reasons.

Holiday flights will likely be banned for the duration
Sir John Bourne, former head of the NAO slotted ALL of his holidays onto the ends of business trips year in year out.

So basically the super rich will get their perks back and the rest of us will get left further behind

that will not go well

It's worth reposting this from squid at the end of the previous thread:

ITU beds - that is SO disingenuous.

My trust normally has 24 ITU beds. We currently have around 30 intubated COVID19 patients.

We reckon we can make 100 ITU beds.

Because we have stopped all non-emergency surgery and are using non ITU areas as ITU areas.

Yes it's good that we haven't needed the stretch we might have but it's NOT like there are empty ITU beds.

I remind you that BEFORE coronavirus ITU beds were running at 95% + capacity in many trusts (which is incredibly unsafe and against all guidelines)

The plan in Germany
is that schools are to open gradually from eary May

First classes to come back to school will be:

. 4th grades (final class of primary school),
. 9th grade at Hauptschule, 10th grade at Realschule (both are the final years of secondary non-grammar)
. 12th and 13th grade at grammar schools.

In some German states, 13th grades still have their A-levels exams
12th grades are because their marks are part of their overall A-level mark.

The pupils will remain at home until the authorities see how this first step goes

The idea is to divide each class into 3 or more classrooms so pupils can keep distance.
This may mean school in shifts
e.g. half of the classes in the mornings, other half in the afternoons

What is still being discussed is social distancing on public transport with pupils

• kids here are expected to do the school commute without parents, on foot or by bus

Some subjects will no longer be taught within school,
to minimize the time spent at school and in classrooms.

Just the "important" ones which so far include Maths, German, English, French, Spanish plus

The boys looking cute on the garden wall - same household, so allowed (and as long as we don't have symptoms, they hey can continue to enjoy the outside )

Talking of NHS capacity, dh was finally seen about his sore hip just before the lockdown and told he would almost definitely need a hip replacement (which he's terrified of, so the physio "let" him take a picture of the x-ray so my dad could see it - who has reinforced the message of the necessity - and that it is now a routine operation). His follow-up appointment and the one with the orthopaedic surgeon has been cancelled (should've been last week) - just one of the many "routine" procedures, that could ultimately lead to something more serious if it's not dealt with, that has been cancelled.

PMK

"So basically the super rich will get their perks back"

The few hundred super-rich may fly their private jets to their private islands

.... or they may be banned too, if govts get too worried about millions of frustrated Brits wondering why they can't fly too
(because there are several millions of them and they won't be flying to pprivate islands)

I missed the briefing while going for my Obligatory Daily Walk.

Hs there been another rise in traffic?

I live on the road into large estate (so lots of commuters at beginning and end of day) DH always says 'it's like the M1 out there' and I have not heard him say this for weeks. Tonight it's like the M1 outside (or perhaps a slightly lesser motorway; maybe the M80)

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8246939/French-researchers-plan-nicotine-patches-coronavirus-patients-frontline-workers.html

Was Hockney RIGHT? French researchers to give nicotine patches to coronavirus patients and frontline workers after lower rates of infection were found among smokers

(contd)

Anecdata: Many, many years ago, one of DWs GPs very discreetly made a veiled suggestion she shouldn't quit smoking as it could exacerbate her MS.

She did, and it did. And when she lapsed and started again, she got better.

Twice.

Now obviously smoking can't be recommended for anything, and DW has since reduced to "is it worth it ?" a day. But I wished I'd been around to ask him why he'd said that.

My DF used to tell a story about a customer in her 70s, who had asked her GP to talk to her 95 year old mother about giving up smoking ...

The private jet to France was intercepted and turned back last week wasn't it. It really should be no travel or only truly essential travel.

I imagine in Germany plans to reopen schools are more centrally controlled and organised. I guarantee the DfE will say it trust all headteachers to 'follow the non guidance and make decisions that suit their own schools'

At which point shitshows will follow.

Germany is much less centralised than the UK and different states eg Bavaria have had different levels of lockdown depending on the local situation.

Pmk

Hs there been another rise in traffic?

Lots more traffic around my way. Overheard the Tuffnells delivery driver saying traffic has been much heavier over the next two days.