Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

The numbers of UK cases and deaths went down in today's release
BUT

That's just 1 period of 24 hours
The UK is testing so little that the numbers may not be meaningful
The deaths are still the 2nd highest - and would be from those who caught it about 2-4 weeks ago

With any country, I'd want to see a few days of figures, a week before I'd really believe the curve is flattening

Italy also down today in cases & deaths, but again only 1 day,
so too early to say if they have peaked, or how much the measures have helped

Bore Chucking him out with only 24 hours notice

• by text message, no discussion, no time to make other arrangements

The LL would have known all along he is an NHS worker

The article reports many other cases;
this is a clear trend of selfish fuckers, who I'm sure would be demanding NHS treatment if they become ill

The govt should make it illegal to evict someone for working in the NHS

The govt should make it illegal to evict someone for working in the NHS

"... all necessary measures" , eh, Boris ? Clearly bullshit, and one reason why people are being arseholes. It starts at the top, clearly.

Yes, BCF I do think you are probably right.

I have just seen that in Kent it was discovered this morning that vandals had deliberately punctured the tyres of six emergency ambulances overnight.

Meanwhile, in human decency land ...

WHY arent we testing? DD1 came back from French Alps on Weds night.

Friend she was working with was tested on arrival in Oz, now in 14 days quarantine as pos despite being asymptomatic.

We are waiting for tomorrow's GP letter to see if DH is counted as at risk (post chemo). Fuck knows what we do then, although we have been practising social distancing, self-isolation is going to be so hard.

I've not listened to any new news yet today although I'll catch up later no doubt. What figures please your DH please?
Number of reported deaths today was 47. That's down on the number yesterday and takes us below a 33% daily increase in deaths which was the rate Italy was tracking at.

RTB are we actually far enough in to the increased measures to have any real effect on the numbers yet?
DHs theory is that the UK situation is slightly different because a) we are slightly behind the rest of Europe so have benefit of watching it unfold elsewhere b) because trust in Johnson is so low, many people took some form of action unilaterally which has had an affect.

It could be that just the washing hands stuff has started to make a difference. It could be elderly or vulnerable being scared and avoiding certain places without prompting that's made a difference. It could be any number of things - remembering action has an exponential effect.

Remember there were a lot of very nervous people even a couple of weeks ago who were frustrated by the lack of intervention by Johnson. There hasn't been hand gel anywhere for some time for example - that does demonstrate a modification of a certain percentage of the population. I think the figure is that hand washing can reduce infections by 20 to 30% for example.

So whilst we are seeing people being dicks, it might mean the way things out here ends up differing from elsewhere.

And we may still need stricter measures to deal with the dick effect anyway.

There are dangers that lurk in this though. Our deaths could go down leading to a false sense of security but the disease is still circulating within younger people who aren't presenting at hospital.

And the effect (if there is one at all) could be a small dip before it shoots up again anyway - it depends on what is actually happening and why - if anything.

More than anything it needs to be stressed of course this is still only one data point so I'm wary about getting too carried away with this idea, but I do think it's a theory that has merit. We will see how it plays out over the next few days.

But... Today was a relief...

This is really chilling:

“Boris hated the language of ‘herd immunity’ because it implied that it was OK for people to die,”
a senior source said.
“Matt hated the language because it implied we had given up.
You’ve got to fight.”
(from BCF Sun 22-Mar-20 16:41:25).

Death on a large scale and how to deal with the prospect is a matter of spin, of 'language'.

Life and death matter only insomuch as they affect the Tories' grip on power.

red We've had some days in Germany when the death rate has fallen a lot.
Then risen again the next day

Too low numbers meaning a high standard deviation
Maybe reporting of deaths is not always in time to meet the deadline ?
Clusters ?

There should be much less variability with the much higher numbers of deaths in the UK and Italy
but I still would want a few more days figures from either,
before I really believe the curve is flattening

(I don't want the bitter disappointment if it's just a blip)

TWATS !

They should all definitely lose their licences
And announce it now to stop other selfish fuckwits

This is why the UK needs tougher lockdown laws, with much tougher penalties for the drinkers too

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/uk-coronavirus-live-police-could-enforce-london-lockdown-says-khan-seven-people-die-in-wales?page=with:block-5e77948f8f08e0999e6b8144#block-5e77948f8f08e0999e6b8144

Police in Scotland have used emergency powers to close a number of pubs after they “recklessly” flouted the ban on bars and clubs from remaining open,
and warned they could now lose their licence

Malcolm Graham, a deputy chief constable, said police were visiting those bars today to enforce the closure order announced on Friday night
after pubs in Glasgow, Greenock and Kilmarnock were among those reportedly staying open over the weekend.

One publican in Greenock was quoted sayingg* he would continue serving until forced to stop.
Graham said the police would impose emergency closure orders, which last 24 hours per order but can be extended,
and report those who ignored the orders to local licensing boards.

The tourist hordes have just arrived in Scotland. V worried about that.

Musings from the US..

DS went grocery shopping yesterday in our local supermarket in a MC suburb that abuts a neighbourhood of the next door city that is top of all lists of stats for poverty, sex offenders in residence, crime with and without guns, drug sales, gang membership, low income, free school meals, etc., etc. He noticed many rusty, older model cars arriving full of older people and assumes from his previous personal experience of working in a medical clinic mainly serving this particular area that their little corner shops have run out of the scant necessities they normally carried (tinned veg, fruit in heavy syrup, tinned stew and spaghetti Os) and are finding it hard to restock the mainly off-label items.

Many of the residents of the impoverished city area who have an income are certified nursing assistants and work in care homes, many not actually employed directly by the homes but by agencies. Employment at will is a thing here (you can be fired for any reason, without notice) which encourages people to turn up for work sick, and do a very brutal cost-benefit analysis of self-isolating when a contact has a fever and chest symptoms if the employed person herself has no symptoms.

The idea that anyone could simply stay home to take care of children is ludicrous. Many people in the area have children who are affected by school and nursery closures. DS saw a woman whose trolley was piled high with canisters of grape-flavoured beverage powder that is basically purple food colouring, sugar, and 'natural flavor'. He suspects that many unlicensed childcare operations are up and running because there are people who can't take time off work to look after children.

I have a feeling that this will be the metropolitan area's Hurricane Katrina moment.

The content of Nicola Sturgeon's messages is so much clearer than Johnson's. 'if life feels normal, you're doing it wrong' is spot on.

The public need clear instructions,
especially those that don't watch / properly understand the news

• or are looking for ways to wriggle out of it all and justify doing what they want

Maybe reporting of deaths is not always in time to meet the deadline ?
Clusters ?

That's my worry and I definitely agree with you about needing a few more days of data.

Dh worked out the range of numbers which were in the range of the Italian curve. He had an upper and lower figure - his reasoning being that if it was at or above the higher figure we were fucked already.

The fact we aren't today gives a bit of hope. The fact the number was lower than bottom end gives a bit of wiggle room on reporting today not being complete or a cluster effect.

We will see what tomorrow brings.

...And DS' friend, an army combat medic specialist (think of the guys who operated the helicopters and delivered the wounded to Hawkeye Pierce and his colleagues on M-A-S-H) who was deployed to Iraq expecting all hell to break out there around Christmas is now home and expecting to be deployed on the home front. How things change.

His current duties are as follows:
www.goarmy.com/careers-and-jobs/browse-career-and-job-categories/medical-and-emergency/combat-medic-specialist.html

Overview
The combat medic specialist is primarily responsible for providing emergency medical treatment at point of wounding on the battlefield, limited primary care, and health protection and evacuation from a point of injury or illness.

Job Duties
Administer emergency medical treatment to battlefield casualties
Assist with outpatient and inpatient care and treatment
Instruct Soldier's [sic] on Combat Lifesaver/First Responder training course
Manage Soldier's [sic] medical readiness, medical supplies and equipment
(The US Army doesn't understand apostrophes, apparently).

Training
Job training for a combat medic specialist requires 10 weeks of Basic Combat Training and 16 weeks of Advanced Individual Training, including practice in-patient care.

Some of the skills you’ll learn are:
Patient-care techniques
Emergency medical techniques
Advanced medical care
Plaster-casting techniques

And parachuting out of helicopters, planes, and gliders, weapon handling, defense, radio use..

Germany's cases and deaths have fallen the last 2 days, but imo the day before was an unusually high blip for both
So, definitely I'd want a week for Germany before I believe the curve is flattening

Uk and Italy, crossing fingers for another few days

• BJ still needs to ramp up measures, as too many selfish fuckwits can ruin it for everyone else

That's a lot to learn in 26 weeks, maths
and sounds a marvellous, worthwhile job - now needed on the home front

I have a feeling that this will be the metropolitan area's Hurricane Katrina moment.

I do not want to think of the scale of the disaster about to unfold in the US. Its too awful.

It will be worse than Katrina.

The federal system should save most states, as the governors, even if Republican, won't be as insanely irresponsible as Trump ?

< clutches at all straws within reach >

Whatever you think of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon is a far better politician and communicator than BJ. Brexit (remember that?) made that abundantly clear - she was the only one to have a coherent response ready after the referendum. BJ's tousled hair and folksy, bumbling Etonian schtick don't work so well north of the border and she stands in stark contrast to them, as does Varadkar.
She is also not being advised by the likes of Cummings and is listening to her CMO.
Her problem is that she is constrained by Westminster policy on this.
She must be thanking her lucky stars that CV is detracting from the Salmond trial.

If it wasn't already clear, CV has highlighted the fact that, due to the fragmentation of "news" sources, fewer people listen to official announcements and speeches, never mind pay attention to them - after all, if BJ says you "shouldn't" do something but your FB friends are all doing it, who wins?
Those (not v representative) photos of families grouping round the wirelss to listen to Churchill's stirring speeches are a thing of the dim and distant past.
In France, I think more people still tune in to listen to the President make official statements. BJ's rambling press conferences are not worth it and his message is always unclear.

Sadly, I expect some US states may suffer at worse than current Italy levels of chaos, until they also claw it back

It's like ripping a scab off all of society's problems at once. Lack of trust in the Government? Rich/poor wealth divide? Community care? The housing crisis? Countryside infrastructure?

I am actually struggling to think of anything the virus will leave unchanged. Johnson's hair, possibly.

On a more positive note, Rwanda appears to be doing as much (if not more) than us. With just two cases reported (and a pinch of salt), they have already implemented quarantine rules and lockdown. Africa, as a continent, may ride this out in a better shape than Europe as they have more experience of deadly diseases and a younger demographic.

Well the National Guard is setting up testing centers in Chicago.
They will then be around if needed.
I note the down town luxury shops that are shutting are also boarding up.
The low income families I know on the South Side are still working because they have to eat.
They will only stop when they have to and one is a nursing carer so won't stop even though their health puts them at higher risk.
My suggestion two weeks ago they might want to get a few extra bits if they could was met with surprise.

That said I reckon our Governor is doing a decent job in very difficult circumstances.