Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

Many thx for your reply RTB and I tend to agree with your DH. The main thing I think that is (hopefully has been) learnt from the Nth Italy Crisis/Tragedy is that most working people continued to work.

So, in order to not follow this same path it will mean 2-4 weeks of complete shutdown of nearly all of the UKs productivity - with all 'activity' involved in ensuring the health of the population.

All of this is a very big Ask and in order to mitigate the worst of the impacts, most of the population needs to be on board. Therefore, the Cinderella of Sciences - Social Science - will also be advising the staged/stepped measures that are being made towards this inevitable near total shutdown.

I've been wondering for some time about the stats for cases that have been "active" for several weeks
i.e. positive for COVID but since then not dead or recovered

There are over 5,000 active in China that have not died and not listed as recovered
Nearly 2,000 are listed as "serious / critical" - still
Presumably the others are still ill, but no longer serious

Those 5,000+ have been ill for many weeks now

There are over 300 on the Diamond Princess - our "closed environment" - that are not listed as dead or recovered

Obviously many could since have recovered without notifying anyone official,
as could some of the active cases over the last 4 weeks in Europe
Anyone know if any are still ill ?

In Germany at least, there is no legal requirement for someone to inform the authorities if they have recovered

It seems likely that there are more recovered cases around the world than are listed

and also that some others will be ill for several weeks, including a small minority who will need several weeks in hospital.

midwestspring, sadly, many people relying on food stamps can only buy what they routinely buy. A little extra isn't possible.

(Though there are people who are surprised to see others stocking up - I shopped in Walmart about a week ago and someone behind me in the queue remarked to her companion that it must be Food Stamp day even though people had trolleys packed high with detergent, baby wipes, Tylenol, and paper towels, which you can't buy with food stamps. No TP as Walmart had run out.)

Agree about Pritzker.

French healthcare system in some regions "at breaking point"

Hospitals in Germany and Switzerland, have been taking some patients from France

• Good to see, but I wonder how long either country will have the spare capacity to offer this relief

Unfortunately, looks like the distances involved means it's not feasible to take seriously ill Italian patients too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/he-sacrificed-himself-tributes-to-first-french-doctor-to-die-from-coronavirus

www.politico.eu/article/uk-foreign-secretary-appointed-designated-survivor-if-boris-johnson-catches-covid-19/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
UK foreign secretary appointed ‘designated survivor’ if Boris Johnson catches COVID-19
Dominic Raab's designation has been contentious, with some ministers believing it should have been Michael Gove.

The French doctor who died was originally from Madagascar. He was retired but had gone back to work to help out and had treated some of the first French CV cases, without PPE, in early March.
He went back to Madagascar on holiday but then flew home to France earlier than planned to help out in his hospital in Compiègne, until he was taken ill.

Given the complex postcolonial relations between France and Madagascar, this is particularly grim.

His wife is also a doctor and is in quarantine.

If the UK is demanding immigration surcharges of its frontline medical staff in these circumstances, no lessons at all have been learnt from Windrush.

Dear God, Raab

.... so BJ wants us all to keep praying he stays healthy !

Strange times indeed.

Just had email from our holiday cottage cancelling. We wouldn't have gone in any event as it stands but at least cancellation means we 'know' rather than trying to maintain a shred of hope that it may all blow away.

We will reschedule rather than ask for a refund.

Actually it's rather an anecdote to all the silly fuckers who decided to head to snowdonia or have huge gatherings at the weekend seeing how many places are going beyond government advice and using common sense.

A lot of restaurants and cafes locally initially decided they would stay open for takeaway but quickly realised it wouldn't work and discouraged social distancing so they seem to have closed fully now or switched to delivery only.

All sports cancelled despite only being 'advised'.

Many businesses choosing to close voluntarily.

I hope people will do a lot better this week on the social distancing front.

Government taking over all rail franchises - R4 just now.

ds in school-less risk to them and teachers...

Today 08:09RedToothBrush

This guy works for yougov

Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94
Whilst I’m sure you are all loving your opportunity to bash Millennials based on what you saw on Clapham Common earlier, the data doesn’t really show them to be the problem.

The very old are acting differently to everyone else, but no generational gap apart from that.

I'm not going to try to defend men though.

Men are definitely the problem.

e.g. this question (from Tuesday) on the proportion of people who were “still going out as normal":

Women 65+: 30%
Women 50-64: 43%
Women 25-49: 35%
Women 18-24: 40%
Men 65+: 38%
Men 50-64: 51%
Men 25-49: 47%
Men 18-24: 52%

(I assume this has gone up across the board since then, but I would bet the pattern still remain similar.)

But either way, once you get below 65, age is the dividing line, not gender.

Same holds for proportion who would not self isolate if they had symptoms:

65+: 5%
50-64: 10%
25-49: 11%
18-24: 10%

Women: 6%
Men: 13%

Two theories as to why this might be.

Firstly, men have different attitudes to risk. On a 0-10 scale (where 10 is the riskiest), the proportion who would place themselves 7-10:

Men (under 65): 38%
Women (under 65): 24%

(Note: You can use more elaborate tests of risk, you will always get the same picture).

Secondly, men are harder to shame. Proportion who say they "care too much what others think":

Men: 48%
Women: 63%

I would also speculate there is less deference to authority among men, although don't have anything to back that up.

And I would also expect there to be a selfishness angle, but that is hard get get at in survey research.

Ben W Ansell @Benwansell
Chris, do you think this might be related to different educational patterns among younger men and women as well?

Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94
Was just thinking that.

I think it is likely that education might be canceling out an age effect that would otherwise exist.

"Government taking over all rail franchises"

Transport
A logical step, to maintain essential services

The next obvious essential is food

• not taking over as such, but making regulations about e.g. maximum numbers in stores, reserving deliveries for the very vulnerable .... rationing if they think this will go on for more than a few weeks

Transport before food, because of the fuckups & profiteering that companies have made from their rail franchises

Supermarkets are struggling to cope atm,
but no commercial concern can really make contingencies for a 1 in 100 years event
They are normally efficient

I'm not planning/needing to go out now until the end of the week, when we will need some milk.

Fortunately, we have a lovely large garden in which to spend time.

Ds, even though he is in the process of being made redundant by Carphone Warehouse (works 2 days a week in a standalone store) is still being expected to go in for his shifts even though there is none coming in to the shopping centre

I've decided I can live without milk (I have cashew milk)
and I'm using frozen or tinned veg & fruit

meaning I'll do without my cashew milk

I have always moaned about the fact that we can't get internet food shopping delivered In rural France, but I think the Drive system is working well at the moment. DH went on Saturday morning at appointed time, opened boot and got back in car, shopping delivered to boot then he got out and closed it and drove home. As we over 70s it seemed to be as low risk as we could make it.

Sounds brilliant, mrsClimpson

Does it also work for those who only have bicycles and big fixed bike baskets ?
(e.g. me, because too visually disabled to drive)

DH has found a local milk man who delivers.

Milk is the only thing we really need to work out. We can't really go without cos DS is 5 and needs it for growing. DH and I could live without it.

We have got a veg box for years so that's proving very useful. It's a local supplier who we have a good relationship with.

Ds isn't great with veg (to put mildly) so that's a bit of an issue. DH and I have resolved to go veggie in the short term and we are using what meat I have in the freezer for DS.

We are good for pasta and rice for a while. (thanks Brexit) We have flour and yeast for bread too.

We will not be going out for a while to the shops.

I think we are going to take DS for a short walk today as I'm anticipating lock down to be announced later today. We've been home all weekend and I think it will be quiet enough around here today.

Homeschooling is going OK so far this morning. Safe to say I've got bored before DS though!

BCF the drive might well work for bikes, but if you order below a certain amount then they charge you. At least some places do.
Can't get a Drive slot here for love nor money...

Harvey Weinstein has CV.

I cannot believe that in a global crisis of this severity, that the Brexit bleaters have not shut the F up

well that post might well be deleted

Well, no negotiations can be going on, so we will have to extend. That's not really important right now. Is it?