Westministenders: Crisis, which crisis ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Main crises facing the government:

. Negotiating a Brexit deal with the EU
. Coronoavirus
. Floods
. Allegations of some ministers - and Cummings - bullying civil servants
. More trouble threatened from Turkey / Syria

Unfortunately with all these parallel crises, we have a workshy lying arse as PM
and the worst collection yet of incompetents in Cabinet
who seem to have decided on a strategy of bullying their civil servants to avoid hearing any facts that don't fit with current Tory party ideology

I'm curious as to why the UK seems to have fewer cases but more deaths than other countries. Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany all have more cases but fewer deaths. I know it's a small sample and it may iron out, but it seems quite marked.

Scroll down the page:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

How comparable are the testing regimes? The more people you test, the more cases you will find.

If you only test people that have been to hotspots or people that have had direct contact with proven cases or people with a narrow range of specific symptoms then numbers will be smaller than if you tested a much wider range of people.

I do wonder just how many asymptomatic cases there have been in the UK that have not been tested and therefore aren’t in the numbers.

Uks criteria for testing is way behind what it should be given the cases they are finding.

We are massively under reporting our figures.

People are saying we are behind where Germany and France are in days. I am not sure that's at all true. And the reality of that will hit us by the end of next week.

High death rate could be due to not finding enough of the milder cases
or not as good medical care as elsehwere
or UK cases have a higher proportion of elderly people with comorbidities
or .....

What amazes me is how S Korea managed to test over 210,000 people

Once they've nailed down their epidemic, can we hire them ?

UPDATE
Total number of confirmed #covid19 cases
Norway 620

More than 200 new infections confirmed today

Norway now has more cases than the UK on a much, much smaller population. The UK's figures aren't stacking up really.

Unless being an island has far more effect than we expected
or Uk public health is brilliant at tracking & isolating
or Norway has some particular vulnerability / cases in care homes
... does look odd

France is not testing as much as it could, as far as I can see.

S. Korea had already experienced SARS and seen China from closer up than EU states. They acted very quickly and thoroughly, testing and isolating as much as possible. Also helped, perhaps, by the fact so many members of a religous cult were among those first infected and were easily traced through its database.

Skiing possibly. Although can ski at home, they still travel. And the virus likes the cold?

Or rather, people congregate more in the cold.

Those expressing concern re uk deaths vs positive tests really should read that excellent paper posted earlier by mistigri - it has a very credible analysis of covid 19 progress

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Up with indigestion, watching twitter react to the trump speech. I don't say this lightly but the sooner he catches coronavirus the better for the American people and the world.

Indeed. Feeling the exact opposite of confident right now.

www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/trump-coronavirus-travel-europe-resorts-126808
Politico points out the following about Trump's ridiculous travel ban:
President Donald Trump’s new European travel restrictions have a convenient side effect: They exempt nations where three Trump-owned golf resorts are located.

Trump is already under fire for visiting his properties in both countries as president, leading to U.S. taxpayer money being spent at his own firms. The president has been saddled with lawsuits and investigations throughout his term alleging that he’s violating the Constitution’s emoluments clause by accepting taxpayer money other than his salary.

The U.S. government proclamation initiating the ban targets 26 European countries that comprise a visa-free travel zone known as the Schengen Area.

The United Kingdom, which is home to Trump Turnberry and Trump International Golf Links, and Ireland, which is home to another Trump-branded hotel and golf course at Doonbeg, do not participate in the Schengen Area. Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are also not part of the Schengen Area. All three of the resorts are struggling financially.

Ireland’s prime minister, Leo Varadkar, is scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Thursday in one of the few events related to St. Patrick’s Day that has not been canceled due to coronavirus concerns.

The administration’s European travel proclamation notes that “the Schengen Area has exported 201 COVID-19 cases to 53 countries. Moreover, the free flow of people between the Schengen Area countries makes the task of managing the spread of the virus difficult.”

Trump’s European travel ban comes with several other loopholes.

There are now 460 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.K., including Nadine Dorries, the British government’s own health minister in charge of patient safety. Wednesday saw the biggest rise in U.K. cases in a single day, and the country’s highest-level crisis committee — known as Cobra — will meet Thursday to consider additional moves to reduce the impact of the virus.

Though they are subject to border checks on arrival, residents of the 26 Schengen Area countries are also free to live and work in the United Kingdom, meaning they could fly to the United States from a British airport under the terms of the travel ban.

Ban the Irish (not in Schengen, physically seperate from the continent, less infections than UK) on the eve of St Patrick's Day.

Good Move.

St Patrick's Day events have been canceled all over the US. The Chicago River will remain its usual murky colour this year.

This 'foreign virus' is clearly an Irish plot to elect Joe Biden.

*How comparable are the testing regimes? The more people you test, the more cases you will find.

If you only test people that have been to hotspots or people that have had direct contact with proven cases or people with a narrow range of specific symptoms then numbers will be smaller than if you tested a much wider range of people.*

My job involves regular travel to EU countries (currently doesn't for obvious reasons). Last trip was to France two weeks ago. I came down with temperature, discomfort/ ache when breathing, pain in my joints, chills and complete exhaustion last weekend. 111 told me I didn't need to be tested. I don't have a cough but who knows though... I may or may not have it and how many are like me?

What’s happening with Japan? Is it massively under-testing? Considering they clean schools with water and washing hands after the toilet isn’t so much of a big thing over there then surely their cases must be much, much higher than is being reported.

Also interested to see the outcome of this afternoon’s Cobra meeting. I think it will be announced that schools will remain open next week but close the week after that, so extending the Easter holidays by one week.

GP friend of mine told me this anecdote last week:

Patient came back from abroad with symptoms, checked what to do online, called 111. Because he hadn't been to one of the [rather short] list of "risky" countries, they told him to go to GP.

So friend examined patient, agreed that he was showing all the classic symptoms. Called the special batphone number that GPs have been given - no answer. Called PHE - person on phone said "he hasn't been to our little list of countries, just send him home, no need to self-isolate or anything!"

(Reader, patient had returned from Madrid).

Not surprised elements

Wenx
Japan routinely tells older people to self isolate in flu season
Japanese people are not tactile
Their elderly population regularly has a lot of flu deaths so they are very geared up - as they have so few young people in many areas.
I suspect they are VERY hot on 'distance'

Elements
Friend who just came home from Rome was told to self isolate for two weeks
after going home by public transport right the way across London [wow]

That's insane about what happened with the GP.
I'm sure there must be many more undetected cases..
Regarding deaths, are they also then under reported, as if they are not, the death rate is significantly lower as a percentage.
Though I assume deaths from cv are often signed off as being from other causes.

I actually don't understand this 111 thing. If I felt unwell and not one of an at risk group I would stay at home until feeling OK again.
No call to 111, 'cos I don't honestly see how that will help, hence I self medicate and stay isolated until better.
This means I would not be a statistic, and I bet there are plenty like that.
The true numbers are most certainly much higher than the official stats suggest.
But that in itself is not an issue as the vast majority will recover and carry on as B4 !
The important thing is to self isolate for a 2 week period should one feel I'll.

And the last place I would wish to be if I did feel unwell would be some A & E department !

Though I assume deaths from cv are often signed off as being from other causes.
Its tricky because the data sets analysed so far,
more than 90% of the fatalities were already under the treatment of doctors for pre existing conditions
(COPD, heart disease, lung problems, diabetes)
so COVID finished them off but did not in itself kill them

If you do not test somebody who dies of complications from pneumonia then its just that or the heart disease rather than a specific virus.

Note the spectacularly low number of cases in Russia for example.

In the USA when the poor and homeless and old and ill start dying, they will not be tested because nobody will pay for the tests
so Trump will be able to say that COVID only hits foreigners