Westministenders: Crisis, which crisis ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Main crises facing the government:

. Negotiating a Brexit deal with the EU
. Coronoavirus
. Floods
. Allegations of some ministers - and Cummings - bullying civil servants
. More trouble threatened from Turkey / Syria

Unfortunately with all these parallel crises, we have a workshy lying arse as PM
and the worst collection yet of incompetents in Cabinet
who seem to have decided on a strategy of bullying their civil servants to avoid hearing any facts that don't fit with current Tory party ideology

We need Eurotrash back. Since it finished, I've never heard a Brit pronounce Antoine correctly.

I loved Eurotrash too. As you say, perfect post-pub telly.

Euro trash would seem tame these days.

Anyone else overthinking what behaviour the nudge unit is really trying to get us to change? By saying 'Don't isolate yourself until cough/fever' people will now a) isolate because they don't trust politicians and b) over-imagine every cough/slight change as CV. Is that what they're really trying to achieve without ordering it?

Unless kids are going to be forced to stay at home for the whole holiday they will still meet their friends, they will still go to the park so the risk is EXACTLY the same

Quite honestly, parents need to take charge and stop their children going out and socialising.

It had crossed my mind too, Edith! Reverse psychology is a wonderful tool.

In the USA when the poor and homeless and old and ill start dying, they will not be tested because nobody will pay for the tests

Well maybe...

www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/coronavirus-katie-porter-cdc-free-tests
Katie Porter Got The CDC Director To Promise Free Coronavirus Tests
Click on the embedded Twitter link within the article to see what it took. Thank you, Rep Katie Porter (D-CA).

However -
'The CDC did not respond to a request for comment to confirm it would follow through'.

A spokesperson for Porter’s office told BuzzFeed News that Porter “expects the CDC to keep the commitment that it made in this hearing.”

The CDC did not respond to a request for comment. The office of Vice President Mike Pence, who is heading up the administration’s coronavirus response, likewise did not immediately return a request for comment.

There are no words.

Reverse psychology is a wonderful tool.

Well, it's worked in our house! As the week progressed with nothing but platitudes coming from official sources, we've gone from being "calmly cautious, watching and waiting" to last night "fucking hell, we need to take matters into our own hands now!"

Interesting to observe the number of faithful government apologists on the various Corona threads, twisting and turning to support Bozo. Bozo says "British science special", they say "British science special" (whilst not going so far as to directly admit that means other people's science must therefore be wrong). Bozo says "herd immunity", they say "herd immunity". Bozo says "keep going to mass gatherings", they say "keep going to mass gatherings". Bozo says "no need to test more", they say "no need to test more" (one muses on how to measure for the desired 80% infection without testing).

So very reminiscent of Brexit. Somebody mused if they were astroturfers, but I don't think so - I think they're real, honest-to-goodness, true-hearted Tory supporters.

Lewis Goodall’s chart comparing different countries’ responses to CV.

It makes the U.K. look like a country which has decided to test what happens if you do very little.

(Tbf we are some time behind other countries in the progress of the epidemic - I’ve heard variously 2 and 4 weeks. Although, the govt are saying the peak may not be till May /June and they don’t want to ramp up response too early. But surely China, by ramping up response, cut the length of the outbreak?)

I dunno. But I’m no expert.

mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1238242156365721609

a) isolate because they don't trust politicians and b) over-imagine every cough/slight change as CV.

The information isn’t very clear - what exactly is a “continuous cough”? There are threads already where posters saying that anyone any sort of cough must stay home.

The US continues to provide that no matter how bad things are here, thank fuck I'm not in the US.

Oh, I think loads are astroturfers. Otherwise, just what is the point of Chloe Westley? Where better to plant 'British science' messages than a parenting website?

There are threads already where posters saying that anyone any sort of cough must stay home.

Exactly. So, people will start to socially distance as a precaution.

@HesterThrale Italy I believe has the same population as the UK roughly? Then numbers show we are 10days - 2 weeks behind Italy.
4weeks was touted by Bozo and his scientific outliers.

It is hard with this epidemic/virus as there is so much unknown
There response is not all bad maybe..... but I suspect the real difference will be made in the margins, which the UK's response completely ignores.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/verdicts-of-experts-on-governments-new-coronavirus-measures?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Faisal Islam @faisalislam on Twitter just now:

Sir Patrick Vallance says at least 60% of the population needs to contract COVID-19 in order to develop "herd immunity" to prevent further transmission in the future

So this is indeed the plan - that it spreads at a rate slow enough not to overwhelm the NHS [flattening the curve], and lack of critical care beds/ ventilators, but fast enough that 60% population gets “herd immunity” and avoids a second peak in winter

So, lacking a vaccine, it's a field experiment in "natural vaccination".

Dh said to me the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty looks like Chris Grayling. Once you've had it pointed out, you can't unsee it!

Sir Patrick Vallance says at least 60% of the population needs to contract COVID-19 in order to develop "herd immunity" to prevent further transmission in the future

I wonder why that number is so low? I seem to recall that it’s upwards of 90% for measles.

This is interesting regarding herd immunity, it seems that not all experts are on board with what the government is doing: www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-herd-immunity-meaning-definition-what-vaccine-immune-covid-19-a9397871.html

Having just googled how to calculate the herd immunity threshold, it should be about 75%, based on a case reproduction number of 2.5, but I don’t know whether that figure is up to date. It probably varies between populations anyway.

Good blog from a Scottish perspective criticising the English approach which is dragging the other 3 nations with them although Scotland is varying slightly which is at odds with the WHO recommendations. (And I use the word English advisedly as the CMO and CSO are only the Chief Advisers for England)

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-government-are-playing-russian.html?m=1

I wonder why that number is so low? I seem to recall that it’s upwards of 90% for measles.

It depends on how transmissible the virus is.

Re tory faithful just parroting the words of the great leader, over the last few days I've read loads of comments on social media and local paper website poo pooing the urgency of the situation which is very reminiscent of the whole brexit/project fear debate...

I really don’t think they’re all astroturfers. There are usernames I recognise as being fervently pro-Tory.

Makes me smirk cynically though, when you see the slithery transition from “it’s just fluuuuu, therefore no need for action” to “there’s only a few hundred positive tests so it’s too soon to worry, therefore no need for action” to “oh there are unknown thousands of cases so it’s too late, therefore no need for action” to “let’s not even bother to look anymore, therefore no need for action”

I've seen a few "But people die all the time from flu" type comments elsewhere in MN (and FB)

Apart from the obvious yet evidently not point that CV-19 deaths would be on top of the "usual" flu deaths, not "instead of" , the fact that there isn't a vaccine means the most vulnerable can get no protection from it, other than avoiding carriers who may not even know that they're carriers/have it

At best, they truly are ignorant, in the true sense of the word. At worst, callous.

Is it so difficult to understand why flattening the curve through timely actions helps the health service (any health system, not just the NHS) have time to prepare and cope?

The worst possible outcome of this kerfuffle (for some) is that it reduces the pool of available labour therefore increasing workers value.

It also shrinks markets, which isn't good for business.