Westminstenders: The Mask is Slipping

[RedToothBrush]

This week has seen the department of the Chancellor who launched a 50p piece, the serious contemplation of a tin pot bridge, the rebirth of eugenics as a subject for cabinet, the announcement of the end of the BBC as we know it, the cabinet chanting after the PM in a way Orwell would be proud of, suppression of a report into trade deals which dares to mention the effect of distance and geography, worrying signs of an ever growing rift with Europe over negotiations for a deal, an appointment which starts to make our membership of the ECHR look very dodgy and there have been rather a lot of floods which so far seemed to have escaped the attention of those in London busy in their own swamp.

It's becoming apparent very quickly just how Trump like our new government are and how they want the UK to emulate the very worst aspects of America.

We are falling fast and its not looking like it will be pretty.

All we need is a major global issue to test our national resilience and the incompetence will truly be laid bare for us all to see... But not necessarily speak of. Such us the way it works.

Brexit Britain is not a nice looking prospect.

The £15 billion estimate is £7.5bn UK costs and £7.5bn EU costs.

Oh, OK, that makes it all fine then. Well worth it

Must be some recently retired freight forwarders who would be tempted back into work by desperate / eager businesses,
because the numbers must be boosted quickly

Oh, OK, that makes it all fine then.Well worth it

It's no more reliable than any other Brexit estimate from 2017/2018 - it was roundly criticised at the time.

Businesses will often need to pass costs on to customers, hugher prices

So customers that can find the product cheaper elsewhere will do so

However, 55% of UK fresh food is imported from the EU and it will be difficult to replace that

So families will be paying that Brexit cost
plus the cost of the lower Sterling

"it was roundly criticised at the time."

Yes, by Brexiters.
The head of HMRC received death threats, for the professional opinion that his department produced

Estimates of the cost so far of Brexit to the UK are 70 billion quid+

That's mostly in lost GDP compred to where we would have been
The UK has done worse than its competitors

Before the ref, the UK was around the top of the GDP growth league in the OECD and was the wrold's #5 economy,
but has slipped way down the GDP league and is now the #6 or #7 economy

for the professional opinion that his department produced

I don't know anything about the death threats but he did mislead everyone with his combined figure (UK and EU costs) - I think he had to write a letter of explanation to Nicky Morgan regarding this.

Must be some recently retired freight forwarders who would be tempted back into work by desperate / eager businesses, because the numbers must be boosted quickly
Theoretically yes, in reality absolutely not.

The ports that still handle large amounts of customs clearance - Southampton, Tilbury, Liverpool etc
are a long way from the ports that will need cover from next year - Dover, Ramsgate, Folkestone, Newhaven
house prices have rather reduced mobility since 1989
AND
The physical office space to prepare the papers does not exist any more
or never existed as at the two tunnels

AND
There are lots of vehicles moving that do not comprehend that they will need to do customs clearance
SO
HMRC will need loads more staff house prices again and physical space to do inspections
must stop watching abandoned engineering

Estimates of the cost so far of Brexit to the UK are 70 billion quid+

That's mostly in lost GDP compared to where we would have been
The UK has done worse than its competitors

This sort of estimate?

"The method used to calculate this loss is to compare the UK’s GDP growth with that of the G7 average. At first glance this seems fair enough, measure the performance of a rich country against other rich countries."

"But who are those other six countries, and how useful is the comparison? The US, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy."

"The thing about averages is, of course, that they are made up of the individual performances of the components. When we go and look at those countries, we find that the worst performances are among the EU countries (Italy, and latterly Germany), France does better, but – and here’s the key point–it’s the US and Canada driving the average up."

"In fact, the UK is very middle-of-the-road once we dismantle the average.Given the insipid performance of our continental neighbours, the idea that leaving the EU is going to depress growth becomes a little harder to support."

capx.co/has-brexit-really-cost-britain-130bn/

I am really surprised that you don't know about the head of HMRC receiving death threats Clavinova - a ten second google search produced this:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/11/tax-chief-received-death-threats-over-brexit-cost-estimate

She doesn't know because she doesn't want to know - it doesn't fit with her narrative....

🎵🎶🎶🎵

Capx is run by Tim Worstall, hardly a neutral commentator

He works at the Adam Smith Institute - a neoliberal & libertarian thinktank and lobbying centre - and Continental Telegraph.

A few of the leading Brexiters were at least honest that they think Brexit will kill off UK mass manufacturing and farming.

Prof Patrick Minford (Economists for Brexit) has repeatedly stated that Brexit would likely “eliminate manufacturing” over time,
but that this would be fine
e.g. in

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/1086319/brexit-will-boost-our-economy-and-cut-the-cost-of-bmws-and-even-brie/

"Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech.

But this shouldn’t scare us.
Britain is good at putting on a suit and selling to other nations."

Was someone copying and pasting? I save time by not reading them

I prefer to read comments from those that actually add some of their own thinking

Workshy BJ again ?
Or just continuing the head in sand approach for Coronavirus that is working so well for Brexit

It's one thing for the govt not to alarm the public by keeping quiet about COBRA emergency planning etc;
it's quite another if the PM is not bothering to do his job of protecting the country in a crisis

Maybe he thinks all the necessary work happens without anyone having to organise it
Wake up you dozey git !
You're supposed to be leading this, or at least getting someone competent to organise it

General bafflement among ministers and MPs that we haven't seen something like this yet

Tim Shipman@ShippersUnbound

General bafflement among ministers and MPs that we haven't seen something like this yet

Johnson won't attend the next COBRA meeting until Monday... Cos coronavirus takes the weekend off. Yet he is saying coronavirus is the government's top priority...

I prefer to read comments from those that actually add some of their own thinking

Good luck finding much of that.

Ooh nasty!

At a slight tangent I noticed the delightful Tim Martin (poster boy of Brexit) is keen on getting staff to work as a cure for their coronavirus symptoms.

In contradiction to most other companies ( and Acas advice) Wetherspoons have said normal rules will apply and employees will lose pay for the first three days of a coronavirus related absence, and then only those earning at least £118 a week will get sick pay.

Lovely to see a multimillionaire Brexiteer worth £448 million pulling together like this.

Doesn't any Leave voter have nagging doubts yet? Is it possible that people like Tim Martin banged the Faragist/ERG Brexit drum to avoid the hassle of minimal workers' rights such as rest breaks and paid holiday?

If someone's coronavirus policy is that greedy and mean, perhaps there's a theme? Could their Brexit stance be borne of a desire to shaft employees? Just maybe?

Absolutely, lonely. Hi! Down your way this weekend babysitting...better than being at home in this weather.

Amélie de Montchalin has written a piece on Brexit in the Guardian, which is worth reading. She is very representative of la Macronie.

Her opposite number in the UK is... no one, really, because apparently Brexit is done and dusted.

I have just skimmed through her article. Although Johnson and his Government are still in the process of willy waving, I do see signs that Industry spokespeople are beginning to speak up and say that they need to protect existing trade deals, not get excited about trade deals 5 or 10 years down the line. Whether this is too late or not, I don't know.

The civil service starts to bite back....

Home Office boss quits over 'campaign against him' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51687287