Is the EU falling apart...?

[Frownette]

My mother seems to be convinced it is. She hasn't given a compelling reason.

And someone at the Halifax told her that it was!

Who forced the 2017 election

Nobody. It was the results of that election that forced government and opposition to invoke Article 50 otherwise both would have been guilty of not honouring their manifesto.

with if anything the ex Remainers being even more determined

Sulking more like.

both would have been guilty of not honouring their manifesto.
you've lived out of the UK too long
nothing obliges a Government to carry out its manifesto
and
NOTHING stopped any party formulating a plan (even of the half baked variety) for Brexit
from the date that David Cameron called the referendum ....

and as none of the Brexiters have yet come up with a plan they can all get behind
I'll stick to the plan that we ReJoiners can get behind

nothing obliges a Government to carry out its manifesto

Maybe, but it’s a good way to lose votes at the next election. Labour proved that.

NOTHING stopped any party formulating a plan (even of the half baked variety) for Brexit
from the date that David Cameron called the referendum

That’s correct. Reason none of them did was they underestimated the peasants.

What was wrong with the previous post?
Boris Johnson is fond of talking about spaffing. If it's OK for him, why wasn't it for a MN poster?

Or has a certain WUM got a bit rattled?

Its what he does... pushes and pushes (but staying within MN rules), then has a laugh when someone bites back.

If only there was a name for that sort of behavior?

Easier to ignore.

@jasjas1973

So what’s your plan to identity the 17.4 million who voted leave and to imprison them all?

Have you worked out where the prisons will be built?

Have you worked out the cost?

How much tax revenue will the UK government lose as millions of taxpayers are no longer paying tax?

Look forward to your answers

Who forced the 2017 election

Nobody. It was the results of that election that forced government and opposition to invoke Article 50 otherwise both would have been guilty of not honouring their manifesto

Article 50 was triggered in March 2017, the election was the following month.

Haven’t RTFT, but I will. I wanted to recommend a good book in this: Flashpoints by George Friedman. Excellent potted history of Europe and a travelogue around the various “flash points” on the continent - the contested borders, the simmering conflicts btw various countries, the natural resource-based differences - all the weak points where Europe may fracture in the (not too distant) future.

Friedman, the guy famous for predicting the US-Japan war* as long ago as 1991!

(The war that ... ummm ... hasn't happened yet).

The 2017 election was called in April, so after A50 had been triggered.

War has cursed europe for centuries, it was one reason france and germany came together to try and put a stop to this.

A failed EU could bring about not only economic instability but also a return to conflict, which would almost certainly drag in the UK, quite why Brexitiers become almost gleeful at this prospect is beyond me.

I don't think the EU is "falling apart" but I do think they will be going through their own 'processes' and considering how they re-organize themselves now the UK has left/transitioning out.

It is now completely up to the EU whatever they do - I'm a UK resident with no dual nationality so have no right nor say in whatever the EU decides. I'm fine with that.

I wish the EU and all EU Nationals everywhere, well and my best wishes.

but also a return to conflict, which would almost certainly drag in the UK

No problem. US will team up with the UK just like before and push from the West China from the East and Russia from the North.

It was the results of that election that forced government and opposition to invoke Article 50 otherwise both would have been guilty of not honouring their manifesto.

Wrong though. Article 50 was triggered in March. The GE took place in May.
MPs should have held the government to account and requested a proper plan before triggering A50. Instead they didn't and got the gridlock we can all remember.

MPs should have held the government to account and requested a proper plan before triggering A50

Difficult as Article 50 prevented UK from entering into trade discussions until after the UK left the EU.

Should the Opposition have a plan
is a manifesto not a plan
A50 did not stop having a plan
but it did show up not having a clue

The US has a habit of being a bit tardy when it comes to helping the UK out. They will if they see its to their advantage. Otherwise, they won't bother.

A50 did not stop having a plan
but it did show up not having a clue

A50 developed from 2002 to 2009 with the intent of discouraging members from leaving the EU.

Leaving members are not permitted to enter into trade deals until after they have left the EU. Hence businesses in both sides of the channel are forced into limbo.

Of course you can't enter into trade deals till you leave, you can prepare for them though. However big trade deals will require the other parties to know what the relationship with the EU is in order to make agreements.

Brexit put business into Limbo not anything the EU did.

Brexit put business into Limbo not anything the EU did

Article 50 was prepared by the EU and signed by all members in 2009. So the limbo that is forced by Article 50 has everything to do with the EU.

So, according to our leading brexitier, we ve embarked on an irreversible economic and political change of historic proportions, without a plan? completely agree! and one that most people outside of the UK saw too.

Which is why i voted Remain, having been initially thinking i may vote Leave.
The Brexit campaign was base on wishlists, could be's & maybe's... not how anyone should run their own lives, let alone a country.

Where in A 50 does it bar countries from having policy documents ?
Where in A 50 does it stop Governments from planning for their people?

Did the existence of A50 stop 5Star from standing on a policy of leaving the EU?
Why was Marine Le Pen allowed to have a plan for Frexit if A50 blocks that ?

Not having a plan was and is pure British incompetence
it has nothing at all to do with the EU or A 50

The EU did not force leave voters to do anything.

You keep saying they knew what they voted for, the business in limbo, as was warned by the CBI, IOD and others.

No leave vote, no article 50.

This is what I have always said would happen, is that leavers would blame the EU for every problem caused by the leave vote.

@jasjas1973

Logically Cameron would have had a team to perform a feasibility study before he stated in 2013 there would be a referendum if he was elected again, but he didn’t. As a remainer himself he assumed that remain would be an easy victory.

Even if a feasibility study that indicated the UK would be worse off outside the EU, it may not have deterred people from voting leave. Probably written off as more project fear.

Likewise economists have no way of modelling emotions. Hence the reason they have a long record of making poor predictions.

Leave won due to:

National pride (2 fingers to the EU. France and Germany in particular)

Immigration (its our country go away)