Is the EU falling apart...?

[Frownette]

My mother seems to be convinced it is. She hasn't given a compelling reason.

And someone at the Halifax told her that it was!

It’s also the case, that I'm a hetrodox economist

So why haven’t you accepted the reality that leave vote was not solely down to whether or not they would be better off, but due to;

National pride (2 fingers to France and Germany again)

Immigration (its our country go away)

I think I most people accept that the Leave win was not the result of knowledge of a better outcome but the result of feelz.

Japan's FTA is more beneficial to the EU

Impossible. Worked with big Japanese companies like; Toshiba, MHI and IHI. No way would they have made a deal if they were worse off. Zero tariffs allows all manufacturing to return to Japan.

why would Japan want to damage this?

A reduction in German imports would increase domestic demand. So if EU breaks up then the Japan EU FTA is shredded as there is no more EU. This then allows Japan to place tariffs on German goods. Hence more expensive to buy and more likely to encourage people who live in Japan to buy Japanese cars. There is also the cultural affect of knowing that all Japanese cars are made in Japan.

I think I most people accept that the Leave win was not the result of knowledge of a better outcome but the result of feelz

Malylis and Jasjas don’t. Their explanation is more simple;

Leavers are stupid

"impossible" not really, the EU is a bigger market than Japan, considerably so, and so has larger negotiating clout.

Why would Japan negotiate a free trade deal in order to see it shredded ? Japan benefits from the free trade deal of course, but it doesn't mean manufacturing will head back there for a number of reasons.

I have accepted that the arguments of "its our own country go away" and " 2 fingers to France and Germany" were significant in the leave vote.

However that doesn't mean I'm not allowed to critique that.

It is funny that you complain that others say all leavers are thick, and then give nonsensical reasons for leaving the EU.

Why would Japan negotiate a free trade deal in order to see it shredded

Japanese business plans are based on 25 years minimum.

Germany has the largest trade surplus in the World in the World even though it is far from the largest economy in the World. However, before Japan (or any other major economy) place tariffs on German imports they must first break up the EU. Reason is that at present EU as a bloc is larger than Japan, but on a one to one basis Japan wins.

Manufacturing will move back to Japan. It creates employment and adds to Japanese pride.

UK’s acceptance of 5G suggests that BJ is lining up China for trade deal talks too. They too would gain from EU toppling to leave German to tackle one on one.

It is funny that you complain that others say all leavers are thick, and then give nonsensical reasons for leaving the EU

That contradicts the following;

I have accepted that the arguments of "its our own country go away" and " 2 fingers to France and Germany" were significant in the leave vote

I love the way that Mystery is trying to teach the sort of geographical knowledge that I knew as an 8 year old. I wonder when he found it all out?

In the same way that Raab made a fool of himself by not knowing how much trade came via Dover-Calais and was too unaware to know that it was basic knowledge.

The EU might be falling apart but luckily the International Date Line (in its Greenwich Meridian configuration) holds it together

While I would say that all Leavers are stupid, some certainly are. Including some who voted because they allowed their feelings to be manipulated by known liars. I would include you in the "stupid" category Mystery, but you didn't vote. You're just ignorant of the whole EU thing.

The largest economy in the world wouldn't necessarily have the largest trade surplus.

"Japan works on 25 year plans" tin foil hat stuff. The world is moving towards trade blocs, rather than individual countries negotiating on their own. Even if Trump has another 4 years he won't change that. Japan is also a member if the CPATPP which aims to reduce trade barriers.

Oh and you can accept the reasons, it doesn't mean you have to agree on them, or aren't allowed to criticise.

When the UK ruled the world it imported everything it needed from the empire
it just did not pay for it
(thanks slavery)
so did not have a trade deficit

Western countries having trade deficits comes from that pesky thing called
workers wanting to be properly paid, the world over

Including some who voted because they allowed their feelings to be manipulated by known liars

National pride and dislike of immigration has been around long before Brexit was a word.

Enoch Powell’s famous rivers of blood speach in 1968 has become a reality for many.

National pride always strong. The former empire, victory in WWI, WWII and the Falklands all adds up.

Won Ww1 and 2 with the helps of allies, never stood alone.

Won the Falklands after having to beg from permission from Regan.

The world is moving towards trade blocs, rather than individual countries negotiating on their own

And the fewer the number of trade blocs the better it is for those that are in such blocs.

EU is the easiest to topple as too diverse. US has more individual states, but they all use the same currency, speak the same language and do not have the huge wealth disparities that exist in the EU.

Japan has been building their cars and a host of other manufactured goods abroad for decades, the reason was cost and now they ve not enough skilled workers in their very aging society, its why they are relaxing immigration rules.

Japanese based manufacturing is 18% of GDP, they also have to import much of their energy needs.

The break up of the EU would collapse european demand and would lead to instability, it would be a huge economic shock and could trigger a world recession, helping neither Japan or China, the Euro is the worlds 2nd most traded currency.

So why haven’t you accepted the reality that leave vote was not solely down to whether or not they would be better off, but due to;

National pride (2 fingers to France and Germany again)

Immigration (its our country go away)

It's nice that you admit this so openly - so many of them don't. Unfortunately you seem to think that this reason is different to this reason:

Malylis and Jasjas don’t. Their explanation is more simple;

Leavers are stupid

These are not different reasons - they are the exact same reason. 'leavers are stupid' is a simple statement (I would say of fact) - wanting to stick two fingers up at other countries and telling immigrants to piss off is how they are stupid. It is the manifestation of their stupidity. It's all the same thing.

Sky News interview with Christine Lagarde May 2016. Some awkward questions for her - from about 3 minutes in:

Is it appropriate for the IMF to intervene so close to the referendum when the government is in [pre-election] purdah?
Was it the Treasury who asked you to delay your report last year because of the general election? But you are not delaying your report now - especially when the IMF have got things wrong about the UK economy in the past? Have the IMF been co-opted into Project Fear?

news.sky.com/video/imf-managing-director-christine-lagarde-talks-brexit-with-ed-conway-10280858

Comment on BBC website 10 minutes ago:

"Ed Balls on BBC 2 now in Italy."
"I'm amazed - Ed Balls on the BBC and they are interviewing Italians who hate the EU, and want to leave."

Won Ww1 and 2 with the helps of allies, never stood alone

Makes no difference. UK was on the winning side. Hence the feel good factor.

Won the Falklands after having to beg from permission from Regan

Immaterial who did or did not give permission. The fighting was all done by UK. Task force sailed over 8,000 miles to repel the invaders.

The sea harriers were massively outnumbered (23 vs 100+ mirages). Sea harriers not as fast as the mirage and had a much lower ceiling height. However, the sea harriers did not lose a single plane and won the air battle easily due to the British bulldog spirit that was displayed in WWII when the spitfire Pilots hammered the German pilots.

Clav - Derail.... its a thread about any potential breakup of the EU.

Clav - Derail
There appears to be quite a few posts about the IMF and Christine Christine Legarde today.

Too many Christines!

Clav, poor skills there dearie, doesn't matter what Legarde said, the same IMF experte mystery is trying to use to back his point for one thing are the same that he dismisses for another.

And copy paste again, yawn, utterly lack of critic thinking again, funny.

So national pride based on something the nation didn't achieve alone eh Mystery? Funny that.

The break up of the EU would collapse european demand and would lead to instability, it would be a huge economic shock and could trigger a world recession, helping neither Japan or China, the Euro is the worlds 2nd most traded currency

Not convinced that EU (15 % of the World economy) could topple the remaining 85%. A slow break up of the EU as members leave one by one would not have any impact.

UK leaving the EU is the catalyst. That’s why nu think BJ will get better deals with US, Japan and China than some think. The benefits of those countries giving good deals to the UK is that it will encourage other EU members to leave when they see UK is better off outside the EU.

These are not different reasons - they are the exact same reason. 'leavers are stupid' is a simple statement (I would say of fact) - wanting to stick two fingers up at other countries and telling immigrants to piss off is how they are stupid. It is the manifestation of their stupidity. It's all the same thing

Irrelevant as UK has left the EU.