Is the EU falling apart...?

[Frownette]

My mother seems to be convinced it is. She hasn't given a compelling reason.

And someone at the Halifax told her that it was!

My Brexy father was going on about the Eu collapsing.

In about 2009. Experts frequently get it wrong don’t cha know.

But the experts you quoted to support your point also predicted a recession that didn't happen. How come they are ok but the treasury ones aren't?

Legarde didn't write the studies or the forecasts that the IMF published. Although the OECD came to the same conclusions too, along with several think tanks etc.

All also predicted most of the economic outcomes of the leave vote for the UK correctly
Clav got her context all wrong (as she often does).

I've replied to you on that article. Please see above. However that article discussed economists as a profession not just British ones, which further goes to prove you were dismissing experts as a whole, and are now moving the goal posts cause it doesn't suit you. Funny.

But the experts you quoted to support your point also predicted a recession that didn't happen. How come they are ok but the treasury ones aren't?

The forecast recession was related to the UK only. Legarde repeated the same as the EU elite are paid silly money and lifetime annual pensions that are about double the UK national average salary. Hence the last thing they want is a member to leave, particularly the third largest contributor, to leave as it may result in the EU becoming extinct and the end of silly salaries and gold plate pensions.

The article about the EU being toppled was not Brexit related, but how EUs trade surplus, particularly that of Germany, can have negative effect on trade relations with countries outside the EU and also be damaging to the EU.

@mystery you sound like an expert. Don’t we ignore them?🤔

mystery you sound like an expert

Some posters have regularly said the opposite.

Don’t we ignore them*

Some posters have suggested that my posts should be ignored. So that makes me an expert on your statement, but contradicts the posters that state I know nothing.

Which demonstrates that posters are divided.

Which demonstrates that posters are divided.

Well, no shit Sherlock. So why do you feel the need to lecture and carpet bomb when you know around half of the people think what you write is irrelevant, and also by someone who isn’t even here in this country?

You post at a huge rate, why is your voice so important?

Mnetters divided about Brexit?
OMG, you're totally right Mystery! Are you like some sort of genius or something?

You post at a huge rate, why is your voice so important?

Brexit was initially about whether or not UK should leave the EU. However, after the result it became a fight to preserve democracy. Arrogant remainers and MPS thought that they know better and the majority should be ignored.

Thankfully it did not happen and UK left the EU on 31 Jan 2020. Imagine the chaos and rioting that would have ensued had the majority been ignore?

The forecast recession was by many international organisations too.

So now Legarde just repeated EU stuff and not the forecasts of the experts at the IMF who published their own analysis? Yet the IMF points bout the EU trade surplus you want to quote as gospel.

Hmmm, you've been hoist by your own petard here, and you know it.

The rest of your post is just platitudes

"Imagine the chaos and rioting that would have ensued had the majority been ignore?"
I think you would have left the country again.

The thing is that every single one of the EU doom-mongers has also been predicting the imminent end of the Euro (currency) for the last twenty years.

I know this because my father moves in prominent eurosceptic circles and initially euroscepticism was primarily directed at the euro. I don't recall ever hearing him or his pals rant about the EU before 2015/6, but they regularly used to go off on one about the Euro. My dad did work in banking - whereas I am a humble economist in manufacturing industry - so I am happy to concede that he had some good points about the Euro. But: he was wrong.

The euro didn't collapse in 2008, it survived the Greek crisis, and at the moment it doesn't look under any serious threat. So people like my dad and his eurosceptic pals, having been proved wrong about the Euro, have switched to anticipating the imminent demise of the EU instead. But they do this from a much weaker intellectual position, because they don't speak a foreign language (so they rely on the U.K. press for their knowledge of European politics) and don't have any real understanding of European political dynamics.

@malylis

The Guardian article focussed on the long track record of poor predictions by the so called
Experts and whether or not UK government could take them seriously.

The other article was not about predictions of any of the economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, CPI, etc., but an overview of the disadvantages that Germany’s huge trade surplus can bring.

Two very different subjects I would say.

I think you would have left the country again

Left 3 Feb as advised earlier.

@Mistigri

Nobody saying imminent demise, but a gradual shrink as members leave one by one.

But they do this from a much weaker intellectual position, because they don't speak a foreign language (so they rely on the U.K. press for their knowledge of European politics) and don't have any real understanding of European political dynamics

Another I know better statement.

Don’t see how language makes a difference. Article produced in other countries are often in English and of not can be translated.

EU has its own website that is available in many languages.

The collapse of the EU is often argued by brexitiers, it's as if, not content with fucking over their own country, they wish to vandalise our nearest neighbours too, could it be some sort of envy?

The EU will evolve, change & prosper just as they have since the 1950s, there is a strong desire across europe to avoid the mistakes of the past that have caused war after war for centuries.

Take a look at:

fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/

However, after the result it became a fight to preserve democracy.

You have had your idea of democracy implemented now, so now it's time to 'move on'. We want to hear now of what trade deals you will be pressing your MP to ask for, as a starter. Not just vague 'We can cut trade deals with the USA/Australia/NewZealand'. Liz Truss, bless, did try, with if we got a trade deal with the US then high quality ceramics might have cheaper tariffs and so be easier to sell. Not a word about the current majority of trade with the EU and how a deal there is essential - while we are waiting to build up the equivalent trade with the US.

Ditto with fishing - Westminster allowed our fleet to sell their boats along with the quotas. Legitimately bought by predominantly the Dutch, how are they going to come back? Sequestered or bought back? In reality, it was the cod wars with Iceland 40 odd years ago which destroyed places like Grimsby as a fishing port. Even if they hadn't, overfishing would have destroyed the cod industry.

Both questions I have already asked you, mystery, for which you have no smart arse answer. These are the details that now matter.

The collapse of the EU is often argued by brexitiers, it's as if, not content with fucking over their own country, they wish to vandalise our nearest neighbours too, could it be some sort of envy?

Or like the extreme Brexiters are now hoping that Ireland will exit. So far the Irish have resisted, and a united Ireland looks to be a more likely prospect.

@Peregrina

Both questions are valid. So far there has been talk of what the government wants to do, but not a description of how they are going to achieve what they want.

Oh Dear. Looks like we're in "why are half of children still below average?" territory here.

The growth of China necessarily produces a reduced % share of the world economy for the developed economies. They are not shrinking. They are growing, but because they are developed they cannot by definition grow at the same rate as China which is starting from a lower base.

Next week, why the average person has less than two legs.

They are not shrinking

As a % of World Share they are shrinking.

As a % of World Share they are shrinking.

Yes, because the global economy is growing at a faster rate than they are. Because they are developed and other countries are still putting in basic infrastructure.

Next week, why the average person has less than two legs

Outrageous insult and lack of humanity for those who have lost limbs in: accidents, wars, deformities at birth, amputations, etc.

Your analysis is wrong again, as a percentage of world trade the EU share is shrinking, but this doesn't indicate a decline of the EU but the growth of the rest of the world. China was the 9th biggest economy in 1980 and the UK was 5 times larger, does this mean the UK is in decline?

Who provided the analysis to support this overview? Experts. You can't dismiss expert opinion on one thing, and then make appeals to their authority on the other.