Is the EU falling apart...?

[Frownette]

My mother seems to be convinced it is. She hasn't given a compelling reason.

And someone at the Halifax told her that it was!

No because the terms would need to be agreed

If not agreed then what?

Mystery doesn't understand economics either then.

Mystery doesn't understand economics either then

How does that answer the questions:

What makes you think UK will apply to rejoin?

Where is the confirmation that EU will accept UK's application to rejoin?

How can you be certain EU and UK would be able to agree the terms?

Remember it has taken three and half years since the 2016 referendum just to get this far. Another 11 months, or more, before trade deals are agreed, if any agreed at all.

Sounds like we are back into crystal ball teritory again.

That was in response to your 15 percent remark. Very funny that you show your sparse understanding again.

You are in crystal ball land saying that you can't be certain that the EU would allow the UK to rejoin, or that the UK wouldn't.

Your arguments go round and round in circles.

The EU would just love to have a large net contributor back in. Whether they'd let the UK back in on the old terms with the rebates and opt-outs is another matter.

Too many hurdles for this. No party is going to put this in their manifestio. (Alright, the LibDems: No serious political party is going to put this in their manifesto.)

So we're looking at EURef3?

Unlikely.

You are in crystal ball land saying that you can't be certain that the EU would allow the UK to rejoin, or that the UK wouldn't

Where is the evidence that UK will apply to rejoin?

Any polls to reference?

Any documents from the EU saying that an application from the UK is accepted before the terms are agreed?

Does not make sense that EU have agreed to a UK rejoin when they haven't yet agreed the departure.

The EU would just love to have a large net contributor back in

True.

Whether they'd let the UK back in on the old terms with the rebates and opt-outs is another matter

If they want a large net contributor to return they may have to?

Too many hurdles for this. No party is going to put this in their manifestio. (Alright, the LibDems: No serious political party is going to put this in their manifesto.)

I agree.

UK is a generation away from asking to rejoin, a question way ahead of its time.

China is approx 13% of world trade, the coronavirus has had a global impact already, just the hint of trade war between US and China has global effects.

Perhaps leavers really should be locked up if they think the EU collapsing would have no effect on global economics? or can predict how the world's largest trading bloc would fail?
Must be quite a few Conference centres they could be housed in for "re-education?"

The issue has moved on. The political question is now divergence vs alignment, which if approached on a sectoral basis will produce a more sober and fact-based cost-benefit analysis.

Sadly our government will not tell us which approach they favour. A bit late now since they also claim they will have finalised negotiations within a matter of months (nobody believes them).

BTW "Australia Style" is a new euphemism meaning "no deal"

There are plenty of polls which show young people overwhelmingly back remaining.

The UK net contribution is not large.

Sector by sector the overwhelming cost benefit analysis comes down on the side of alignment. The benefits of divergence for some industries at too great a costs for others (or in the case of fishing even the industry its self.)

You are busy

Australia Style is presumably to appeal to those who want the Empire back, and think back with nostalgia to the £10 poms.

Despite the strong feelings of pro-Europeans, especially among the young, it will take several years to flush away the old politicians and change the public feeling. There is I think no immediate chance of a reversal.

If I were a leader of a country in the EU, I would be reluctant to accept back a grumbling, dissatisfied applicant who still hadn't made up their mind firmly to be a constructive and co-operative member.

All 27 members of the EU have the right to veto an applicant they consider unsuitable (though Boris falsely denied it when talking about Turkey).

UK is a generation away from asking to rejoin, a question way ahead of its time

Some think it is only 2 years away?

China is approx 13% of world trade, the coronavirus has had a global impact already, just the hint of trade war between US and China has global effects

Their combined % is about 45% of the Workd total. So I can believe that would impact the remaining 55%.

Perhaps leavers really should be locked up if they think the EU collapsing would have no effect on global economics?

How will you identify them? Remember vote was anonymous.

It costs around 37K per year to keep someone in prison. Multiply that by 17.4 Million and it is same order of magnitude as UK GDP.

Must be quite a few Conference centres they could be housed in for "re-education"

There are 92 professional football clubs in the UK. Assume they each have a stadium of 50,000 capacity. That's a total of 4.6 Million. Where were you think to place the other 13 million?

Who will pay for the teachers?

Who long do you think the re-education will take?

Who will set the exam questions?

Who will be appointed to mark the exams?

The list is almost endless.

There are plenty of polls which show young people overwhelmingly back remaining

UK population is ageing as opposed to becoming younger. The number of over 60s is about 20% of UK population. Check the ONS data.

Remember that today's young generation is the future old generation. By the time another referendum is called, if at all, even the youngest voters in 2016 will be considered as the older generation.

Despite the strong feelings of pro-Europeans, especially among the young, it will take several years to flush away the old politicians and change the public feeling

Decades more like.

If I were a leader of a country in the EU, I would be reluctant to accept back a grumbling, dissatisfied applicant who still hadn't made up their mind firmly

I agree. One member playing the oke coke about EU membership is disruptive.

All 27 members of the EU have the right to veto an applicant they consider unsuitable

Correct, but they must state why they think the applicant does not meet EU criteria for membership. If Brexit reduces the UK to nothing as forecast by some why would the EU want UK to rejoin?

Remember that today's young generation is the future old generation

My, you don't say! Who would have thought it?

"Decades more like".

Got your crystal ball there ?

The UK population is ageing, but again I think you have misunderstood what the young overwhelmingly backing leave means.

Funny again.

Got your crystal ball there

No. Just share similar view to others on this thread regarding whether or not another referendum is imminent.

The UK population is ageing, but again I think you have misunderstood what the young overwhelmingly backing leave means

Any numbers to give?

Many of today's young may not be interested in leave or remain once they have inherited the wealth from the baby boom generation.

The US accounts for a lower share of world GDP than the EU.

US 15.2

EU 16.28

China 18.2

In terms of share of global trade:

The EU, US and China together account for nearly 50.percent of all trade. As the EU is reaponaible for about 16 percent the other two are round about that figure too.

The EU is also the number 1 export destination for the US and the 2nd for China.

You really don't understand economics.

If the EU was to collapse it would be a disaster for the economy of the world, in the same way as a Chinese collapse would or US.

No no you do have your crystal ball You are making predictions.

The average age that someone who is under 30 today will inherit is in their 60s, go look up the data.

The data shows that the under 30s voted overwhelmingly to remain and that those who have gained eligibility to vote since the referendum are the same.

The EU is also the number 1 export destination for the US and the 2nd for China

But what about imports from the EU? US has a trade decifit with the EU.

If the EU was to collapse it would be a disaster for the economy of the world

Not if it happens gradually. Remember that EU is a union of 27 seperate countries. Whereas China is one Country. Unlikely that any one region of China would opt out of being part of China. Same applies to the US.

Is there an equivalent of Article 50 for China and the US? No.

I think PigletJohn is right.
A certain poster who lies about how they voted having lived abroad for so many years will have lost their vote puts the Brexit arguments in such a bad light they are most likely a mole for ReJoin

So you don't understand why an economic crisis in the number one export destination is a problem for the exporting economy? A trade deficit doesn't really matter in this context.

No no you do have your crystal ball You are making predictions

Contradictory. With a Crystall ball you make statements of fact, not predictions.

The average age that someone who is under 30 today will inherit is in their 60s, go look up the data

Exactly. 30+ years from now which is decades.

The data shows that the under 30s voted overwhelmingly to remain and that those who have gained eligibility to vote since the referendum are the same

Not all under 30s can vote. Minimum age is 18.

Rough stats of UK population are:

20% under 18
30% is 18 to 39 (the younger generation)
50% is 40+

So in terms of elligible voters it is 5:3 ratio in favour of 40+.