Westminstenders: War and Weirdos

[RedToothBrush]

With weirdos set to run No10 and Trump seemingly having started a new war in the Middle East, 2020 already looks set to be a cracking year.

To start off your year, it turns out that chinese curse about interesting times is actually a fallacy...

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Happy New Year.

May we make 2030...

For the policy nerds on here, a link to an EU council preparatory document regarding negotiating guidelines on data transfers and financial services equivalence.

The points being that (a) it's complicated (b) they are better prepared than us and (c) the EU will be highly transparent about the process.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/seminar202001100-dataaprotectionadequacyy-financiallservices_en.pdf

"You can't just 'quit' the royal family"

I think they should all go, which is why I think any of them can & should quit
Obviously I don't care if it damages a monarchy that is long past its usefulness

They are all cocking a snoot at us plebs
I just prefer their privilege to be visible, instead of hidden from the fawning RF admirers - and the taxpayers

Like all the super-wealthy, they will be environmentally disastrous A listers whether in or out of the RF

Abolishing the entire monarchy would be the only way they would no longer need security staff - part of the taxpayer savings

Those who were born into it and spoonfed all their lives have little ability to maintain their standard of living other than by capitalising on the titles etc
So I don't blame them for not disappearing into a monastery

(Significantly dropping your lifelong standard of living is painful whatever the wealth level

• hence why a rich divorced parent is ordered to pay for school fees & trips to keep the family at a much higher standard of living than average)

3 weeks until Brexit

Are you all prepared, misti ?
I have the documents I need and will go to the Auslanderamt (foreigners office) on 3 Feb to apply for my permanent residence
Procedure sounds pretty straightforward

I'm celebrating my retirement with my team on 31 January, which may feel a bit strange 😂

@AuldAlliance very interesting article. I love the way they make the disappearance of the U.K. a good thing.
Remind me... ah yes it’s American (but right on quite a few points, incl the loss of this feeling if grandeur that is totally misplaced)

I applied for naturalisation on 29th March 2018.
No reply yet, although legally they had to do so before Nov 30th.

Are you all prepared, misti ?

We still don't know what we have to do to prepare.

The no-deal on-line application process hasn't been updated though it is still live. I might upload my long-expired carte de séjour to it and see what happens.

I'm not personally worried, I've been employed in France since 1999. I just hope that my 20 year old carte de séjour is enough evidence of my residence. I have a badly broken arm + am a carer for a disabled partner so assembling paperwork is not feasible atm.

sigh
I know some of you have moved countries - but many of you have not. The reason I would say they are moving to Canada - is they have a support network there. She/they have friends. They probably know no-one in Oslo. Moving countries is incredibly hard - I have done it 3 times.

If you don't like there plans or indeed them - ignore them, carrying on about it is just feeding the monster of celebrity

I like Oslo, although would find it too cold for parts of the year.
I wish I had another country to move to. DH has family in Canada, but neither of us really wants to go there.

You can't just 'quit' the royal family. Especially if your plan is long term to cash in on the royal connection through media deals to be independently wealthy.

The idea that they can just walk out and then decide to live off the family name is utterly hypocritical and ridiculous.

But this is the point isn’t it that Prince Harry won’t ever not be Prince Harry even if he abdicated HRH as Diana did. He cannot ever not be a member of the RF so the idea that he could just leave is a complete illusion.

The idea they could ever have proper normal jobs is also a fantasy. The amount of attention around them and the security risk (whether or not they have royal protection) will cut off many lines of work. It’s not as if Meghan can even go back to acting. Any dark story lines or sex scenes will look dodgy for someone with royal connections.

It seems reasonable to me not to leave the whole family in the lurch and cut all ties - but keep the door open. I also think that charity work is one thing they could usefully do, so why not. But I couldn’t care less what they do or how much money they spend so I don’t really understand why people are getting so worked up about it. The only question that is any of the public’s business is the issue of paying for royal protection.

Personally think we should stop the whole monarchy lark altogether. In the mean time people might as well accept that members of it are rich and privileged and don’t live normal lives. If that gets up your nose, vote for a republic.

Has any journo done a costs and benefit analysis to compare percentages of:

1. EU membership fee and what we got back.
2. The Royal fam fee and what we get back.

I find it so ironic that the ardent Brexiteers are often royalists. One of the arguments used to defend the RF ( which I partly agree with) is the 'brand' revenue.

According to the Independent a consultancy called Brand Finance estimated in 2017 that the monarchy’s annual contribution to the UK economy is £1.8bn a year, - an additional £550m of tourism revenues a year, and an increase in trade, from acting as ambassadors, worth £150m a year.

BUT Exports of goods and services to the EU were 13.4% of the value of the economy not even taking into account the other trading arrangements via the EU. (2017 figs )

I know it's comparing apples & pears but do think it's ironic that in one case it's "oh it's worth it due to the economic boost".
In the other case it's "oh the cost and economic boost aren't worth it ".

It's a pity really that Harry couldn't have stayed in the Army until the normal retirement age. I suspect that most of the time he would have been fighting behind a desk, or maybe training recruits, but it would still have been useful.

Apparently the Duchess of Kent, chooses not to use her HRH title, even though she officially is, and quietly volunteered in a school, helping them with their music as Mrs Kent.

If you don't like there plans or indeed them - ignore them, carrying on about it is just feeding the monster of celebrity

Hear hear.

The NYT cheered me up. It was very positive about England managing on its own and not being a sulky, slightly pretentious middling country. However, I do value the Scottish, Welsh and NI influence over Westminister and continue to hope for complete federal reform.

It is amusing to watch the anti-state-ownership Tories take back the railways into public control and promise cash to various sectors once Brexit happens.

Also I am sure it hasn't escaped the attention of those on this thread that JRM announced increased Parliamentary recess making it 63 working days of not sitting for 2020. This is is four weeks longer than in 2019.

Less time for parliament to quiz the Gov I suppose. With trade deals and treaties now happening more secretly from MPs & without usual scrutiny perhaps there are some pluses? We can enjoy the blissful ignorance of what you don't know doesn't hurt you (at least for a bit).

I’d be very grateful if they take my line under state control as it’s shit. It’s run out of money so - looking hopeful.

Things like Erasmus won't affect me or my children. Things like losing ehic may not be such a problem as all that, or having to have green cards for driving abroad or international driving licences will be a nuisance, but won't affect my day to day life.

But - we were promised benefits. I can't yet think of one. I don't yet see a rush of firms looking to reallocate to the UK bringing more work and therefore generating more wealth....

ABC - I thought the NYT article was good too, and hoped that it might come to pass.

As for the promises about the railways and taking stuff back into public control - after 40 years of "public sector bad, private sector good", significant numbers of Tories are going to need a personality transplant to accept it. I can't really see the Tories in the South East wishing to stump up for railway lines or new public works in places like Stoke or Sunderland, for example.

What would affect most people is any reduction or increased costs, red tape etc in the 45% of UK exports that go to the EU
or the 25% that go to countries with whom the EU has a trade deal

Because that means the country getting poorer, or at least stagnating and falling behind our major competitors
Less tax money going in the govt coffers to spend on public services, benefits, the infrastructure that we must improve to stay competitive
Less money for pay raises from strapped exporters with lower profit margins and / or reduced sales

The effects would probably not be noticeable to most until well into 2021, after transition probably ends

Howeve, the post-Brexit trade negotiations with the EU will determine how well the govt does - and how well most people do

The very wealthy will be fine, whatever happens

• in the worst case, they and their assets can much more easily move abroad than most folk.

A particular concern is the service sector, which so far hasn't been included in govt aims for a trade deal

That's what I foresee BigChoc - a continuation of gradual impoverishment. So I don't expect to see potholes in roads fixed, I don't expect to see more money really going into education. There might be more money going the way of education but it will enrich the CEO's of multi-academy trusts etc. Ditto with the health service.

I was just reading in today's Guardian about a man who has gone to live in China - the fall in the value of the £ and increased wealth in China means that the value of his pension has almost halved.

The loss of the European Health card will affect my family very badly. As will the loss of Erasmus.

The NYT article had an interesting angle, I thought
(Though I twitched at the "Mr X is a historian" tagline. Why not say he's Prof of the History of Science and Technology and Professor of Modern British History at KCL, even if many NYT readers don't know what KCL is?)

The loss of the EHIC card will complicate things for quite a few people.
The loss of Erasmus will have a knock-on effect for many people, as it is likely to mean a further fall in the language skills of teachers in UK schools, unless the gvmt agrees to include language teachers on the list of priority professions for those moving to the UK (doubt it, myself).
The loss of access to Horizon will affect research projects, which will indirectly/directly affect a lot of people.

It appears to be true the NI assembly sit today at 1pm and elect a new first minister etc.

The Brexitbrigade seem to see this as great credit to Boris Johnson? Is it? Surely it's down to the DUP no longer having any sway in WM?

Whilst it's a good thing - surely concerns about Westminster government have also had a unifying effect? It reminds me of an awful boss we once had. Whilst members of the team may have had differences of opinion the boss was so dodgy that we all just put up a cohesive united front. I often thought it was a good management technique as we all pulled together very effectively against him!

Meg has a bit of cash in her deposit account from her TV work, but not enough to keep her in the style she would like.

Harry has an army pension. That's it. The Duchy of Cornwall goes by primogeniture. Even the biscuits.