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Brexit

Westminstenders: Social Conservativism

951 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/12/2019 16:11

The post election autopsy is starting to show something up. Finally. Brexit is part of wider political issues and fractures. This isn't exactly rocket science but it's an inconvenient truth that has been ignored.

We have something of a conflict going on between economic conservatism and social conservatism.

The Tories as the party of business were economically conservative and put this ahead of other issues. "It's the economy stupid."

But as this has continued this has opened up social division and the gap between rich and poor has laid bare social issues.

This is where Labour and the LDs are now becoming something of a cropper. In Brexit they continued the idea that the economy was the most important this and in doing so has fuelled the idea that they don't care about social issues. They are perceived to be putting the interests of businesses as more important than those people.

Of course it's not as straightforward as this. To fund ways to stop social issues you need good economics.

Add to this the progressive movement which has become authoritarian and has lost sight of certain social issues in favour of identity politics and you start to have a real issue. One that the EU as an identity has become caught up in in this country. The wedge to drive in the cracks.

Issues haven't been tackled because identity is more important and was prioritised. And we've had scandals arising out of this.

Instead we've had the increasing demonisation of social conservativism and the idea that if you question certain things you are backward or bigoted as a means to silence people. And now we've had a massive backlash against that generalisation and lack of nuance. And not seeing what was happening and having a self awareness of how this read to more socially conservative types.

That's not to say there aren't massive issues in social conservatism which can be indeed racist, homophobic, sexist and yes very bigoted in nature. The trouble is that the failure to be able to tackle nuance which identity politics forced and a failure to understand that the pace of change needs to be set by public consensus rather than top down authoritarianism has lead us to where we are now.

Rights set up to protect certain groups have failed in practice even if they exist in law. And those who professed to stand for the interests of certain groups forgot the origins of rights.

Thus undermining the entire centre left project, which in some respects the EU embodies.

We now find ourselves in a divided and ruled scenario where those who should have benefitted most from rights can be exploited by an elite who have successfully seen an opportunity to step into the void that identity politics created.

And now the left and liberals have to wake up to this reality and come up with a solution to it.

There is a lot of uncomfortable and difficult decisions to be made here.

The solution to the culture war isn't to push back harder and to become more authoritarian in tone about the right of 'right and wrong'.

It's to address why identity politics caused the left and liberals to forget their origins and purpose and why they established certain ideals in the first place.

Meanwhile whilst they figure out just how they lost their way and were blinkered by their own self righteousness, everything that the centre left project established will be gradually unpicked. Or if Johnson can do it, without being challenged, at some considerable pace.

It comes down to remembering your roots and having a solid connection with the reality of people's lives rather than high minded idealism and a sense of superiority. This is what people saw regardless of the noble intent of Labour and the Lib Dems.

'Social conservatism' were dirty words. Now they are the reality of the present. Whether we like it or not.

Economic stability has become secondary to this desire for social conservatism.

Labour and the Lib Dems have to adapt to this and will have to offer something to those with more socially conservative views to move forward now. The alternative is a very long wait outside in the cold of politics.

Liberal democracy is about balancing needs. You have to identify needs and you have to understand how to balance them for liberal democracy to thrive. Failure to do the former means the latter fails.

And here we are.

2020 beckons.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New to all.

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Thread gallery
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CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 17:26

....Aaaah Yes:

We shall go out and move among the noble peasantry, so pure of spirit but so ignorant, and enlighten them as to the error of their ways with the benefit of our degrees from the LSE, and we might even get lucky and pull a peasent girl or two, like that Starsky bloke in Fiddler On The Roof.

Narodniks. (That went well.)

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 17:28

Speak loudly and slowly and the poor ignorants will understand ....

For there is no chance that our message is crap and its us that has to change Wink

CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 17:38

Maybe if Ken Loach could produce an online streamed alternative to East Coronation Streeters in which the downtrodden exploited porles gather in the pub and discuss the inequites and iniquities of zero hours contracts and how the local Kosovans are not to blame for globalised capitalism. Meanwhile, at the newly renamed Mini-Coop, the prices will be set according to need and people will pay whatever they can afford.

...Or, as Brecht said of the East German Communists, The Party has voted that it has no confidence in the people, and has decided to elect itself a new people.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 17:45

"The major factor is the 3.9m who voted UKIP in 2015"

The major factor in 2019 is that according to Ashcroft / YouGov, Labour only got 49% of the Remainer vote
and Remainers were over 70% of Labour's 2015 GE vote

Some of that loss will be because Remainers had already drifted away to fully Remain parties -
repelled by 2 years of Corbyn's Lexiter antics, as he tried to keep the 30% of Labour's 2015 voters who were Leavers

A lot of lost votes were because many Remainers are on the Labour right and centre, so were repelled by Corbyn's hard left policies

Regaining the lost Labour votes means moving away from Corbyn and the hard left clique

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 17:50

So there is a large group on the Labour centre and soft left who rejected Corbyn and the hard left,
as well as floating centrist voters

Replacing him by someone similar, but younger & female, will just continue the problem
Voters aren't stupid enough to be fooled by a cosmetic change

Songsofexperience · 30/12/2019 18:06

Agree, RLB would be an utter disaster.

howabout · 30/12/2019 18:07

BigChoc if your analysis is correct and there is indeed a mythical Centrist soft Left vote, who did they vote for in 2015 and why did they vote Labour in 2017?

As far back as 2001 Labour were only polling 10.7m. Hard to argue Labour could go much further to the Centre than Tony Blair.

More hope for Labour if the LibDems sort themselves out and split the Tory vote. Not seeing much prospect of this atm but it could happen if levelling up starts to adversely affect the "Liberal elite" massively.

RedToothBrush · 30/12/2019 18:07

Alternatively we could work out what we think a sustainable level of human population on earth is, and try to work towards that. Or are we still following the idea we can have an infinite number ? Maybe there is an as yet unknown third way that is not infinite, and not finite ?

DGR, I think we can count on the first. Since we are humans I think we can also bet on it being achieved by a raft of measures which are unpleasant and are justified by the idea of 'survival of the fittest' and dehumanisation with a touch of full on genocide thrown in for good measure.

To this ends this is why it is suits western leaders (and citizens) to abandon the principles of human rights at this time. The long term benefit means they are better placed to stiff the developing world in favour of their own citizens and future. Cos geography is a bitch.

There's plenty of arguments to be made that the EU already have to a certain extent with measures to stop the rescuing of economic migrants who get in trouble crossing the Mediterranean. And this is going to get a lot more aggressive in nature rather than merely in different if there is additional pressure put on resources such as water and food due to climate change.

'Population control' is a phrase is one which never fails to remind me of pest control unfortunately. And going by human history, its hard to argue to the contrary.

where did the Labour support go
Some of it just stayed at home.

Absolutely this. Born out by observations of someone I know at the count by looking at ward turnout.

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frumpety · 30/12/2019 18:09

Have been avoiding politics during the festive period, but I wondered today , whoever the Labour party elect now as leader , do they have to be the person who is the leader at the next election ?

Violetparis · 30/12/2019 18:17

I think Keir Starmer will be the next Labour leader. The Corbyn supporters I know aren't as hard left as most are portrayed and seem to be agreeing that Starmer is the best candidate, none of them want RLB.

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 18:18

Re Where did the Labour vote go
2019 is not in there yet (and I do not know how to edit wiki tables)
BUT
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_elections_overview
You can sort the columns so that Tory and Labour are at the top
Look at what happened to the Libdems
compare and contrast with the two big parties ....

RedToothBrush · 30/12/2019 18:19

DH is probably mythical soft left.

He voted 'wrongly' in every election he's voted. He's never had the outcome he'd ideally have preferred.

Neither the LDs nor Labour have really got it right in terms of his thinking.

I'm probably not a million miles off but do have different priorities and views to DH. I have voted and supported the outcome more than he has (I've voted at one more GE).

It's people like me, who have more to be critical of ultimately. I should be responsible for how I've voted in the past and the failure of some of those policies.

There's talk of recent elections and how voters in those should take responsibility for how they voted.

Why should this be a new phenomenon?

A lot of what's happened now has much deeper and longer roots that are easily traced back.

What we do now only becomes truly apparent in retrospect in 20 odd years time...

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RedToothBrush · 30/12/2019 18:23

As far back as 2001 Labour were only polling 10.7m. Hard to argue Labour could go much further to the Centre than Tony Blair.

Personally I think there is a desire to go slightly to the left of Blair without going into Corbyn country.

We have the new social grouping of the 'young kind capitalistists' in place of the more aggressive stereotype of the selfish 'yuppy' of years gone by.

There is an acknowledgement that one of the worst abuses of the Blairite era was PFI and as such there is more of an appetite for public ownership or financing of big infrastructure projects than there was.

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 30/12/2019 18:46

Personally I think there is a desire to go slightly to the left of Blair without going into Corbyn country.

Id agree with that, but how do you find that leader with a party who's two wings are dying to end each other, a membership that are angry. the right want to go back to less membership control, the left wanting to go full re selection mode, the MSM that are going for the Phillips or Starmer options but because the MSM is so untrusted by the left are likely to push against either of those two options,

I'm not saying either are right but here we are anyway

howabout · 30/12/2019 18:46

Made me go back and check my figures Listening. Using percentages flatters Blair.

The differences in turnout between 2015/17/19 were small but they are all significantly higher than 2001 (67% vs 60%). Most of the difference, I would argue, were Labour voters turned off by Blair between 97 (71% turnout) and 2001.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 18:51

"As far back as 2001 Labour were only polling 10.7m"

That was enough for a large majority in 2001
The electorate has expanded in the 18 years since and party distribution has also dramatically changed,
e.g. Labour has been annhilated in Scotland by the SNP

"a mythical Centrist soft Left vote"

Not at all mythical
but many of them rejected Corbyn and the hard left in 2019
either stayed home or voted for other parties

On the doorstep, so many Labour canvassers were reporting that Corbyn and the hard left are toxic

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 18:54

Howabout
I was looking for a page that showed the absolute and relative voting numbers
because percentage of votes cast HAS to be linked to falling turnouts
AND
if you go down the Wiki page, in the 50's it was a total 2 party system

Justanother
UKIP effectively split the Tories
then the Tory party lurched to the right to re-include them and expelled the wets

Labour years ago expelled its extremists (Derek Hatton and Militant)
but Jezza let them back in
and effectively expelled his wets

so there is a sodding great hole in the middle
which the Fibdems not my normal choice of word can only fill by being less woke

I drove through Christchurch this afternoon
that is the UKs future
JEEZ the pelican lights are long because they are at zimmer frame speed

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 18:56

Labour have been through this in 1983:
a massive defeat for the hard left, then they moved - eventually - to the centre and won a landslide

3 victories in a row that no other Labour leader has ever managed - just coincidence that leader was a centrist ? Hmm

imo, Labour will continue to lose under the hard left

  • betting the house on getting in after a Brexit Armageddon is very negative

Labour could win with a centrist leader,
but need to have policies to rescue the regions which MrsT deindustrialised, but which New Labour apparently thought could regenerate magically on their own.

DGRossetti · 30/12/2019 18:57

Normal service has been resumed, and "GET OUT" letters have started again.

www.euromovescotland.org.uk/eu-academics-no-thanks/

euromovescotland.org.uk
EU academics: no thanks...
9-11 minutes

“The UK’s university sector is one of our most valuable national assets,” Prof Brian Cox, the University of Manchester academic and TV presenter, told me last week, writes Prof Colin Talbot.

He argued that UK higher education “is a genuinely global industry generating billions of pounds in export earnings, one of the necessary foundations of our innovation-led economy and perhaps our strongest soft power asset; political and industrial leaders from all over the world were educated here in the UK.”

Which makes it all the more strange that the government should be – whether accidentally or deliberately – undermining them. Most of the Brexit commentary about UK universities has concentrated on issues of funding, research cooperation and students. Much less attention has been paid to what keeps universities running – academic staff – and what Brexit will mean for the 30,000-plus EU academics in the UK.

I arrived at a meeting a couple of weeks ago and noticed one of my academic colleagues was visibly distressed.

When I asked what was wrong, they said they’d just had a very alarming letter from the Home Office. Having lived and worked here for more than two decades (they’re a national of another EU country) they decided to play it safe after the Brexit vote and apply for leave to remain. Big mistake.

They received a threatening letter from the Home Office saying they had no right to be here and they should “now make arrangements to leave”. The letter was obviously wrong – they had every right to be here under existing UK law – but that didn’t lessen the emotional impact for my colleague, whose whole future was suddenly thrown into uncertainty.

I had read similar stories in the press, and wondered how many other academics might be affected, so I turned to Twitter to ask for any similar experiences. The tweet I posted asking for examples was retweeted – mostly by concerned academics – over 1,000 times. People started writing to me with cases and I began digging into the issue.

The first thing that struck me was the level of fear, anger and disgust – and in some cases resignation. I have disguised individual cases – that’s because few people are willing to speak openly, such is the degree of fear about what might happen after Brexit.
The impact on individuals

Some EU academics (along with others) who have been living and working legally in the UK for years decided, after 23 June, that they should try to cement their position by applying for one or other of the various routes to permanent residency. The procedures are daunting and of Kafkaesque complexity – one form runs to 85 pages and requires forms of proof that make acquiring Catholic sainthood look simple. As a result many applications are failing – but it is the form of the rejection that is causing much concern. A typical letter from the Home Office says (in part):

As you appear to have no alternative basis of stay in the United Kingdom you should now make arrangements to leave. If you fail to make a voluntary departure a separate decision may be made at a later date to enforce your removal…

This appears to be a fairly typical ‘prepare to leave’ letter, variations on which have been sent to ‘failed’ applicants – even though they are currently here perfectly legally.

Even more worryingly, the decision on whether to accept or reject these applications is based on the “Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 and Regulation 26 of the Immigration (European Economic Area) Regulations 2006”, to quote the letter again. The latter will be repealed in the Great Repeal Bill planned by the government, which could rescind any ‘right to remain’ granted under existing law and regulations.

Brian Cox sums up the situation very well when he told me:

We have spent decades – centuries arguably – building a welcoming and open atmosphere in our universities and, crucially, presenting that image to an increasingly competitive world. We’ve been spectacularly successful; many of the world’s finest researchers and teachers have made the UK their home, in good faith. A few careless words have already damaged our carefully cultivated international reputation, however. I know of few, if any, international academics, from within or outside the EU, who are more comfortable in our country now than they were pre-referendum. This is a recipe for disaster.

Another academic colleague said: “as an academic I’m embarrassed and ashamed of [the] UK government’s stance on EU citizens.”

One academic told me: “the Home Office is hedging its bets because we non-UK [academics] are now effectively hostages.” A neuroscientist from the EU at a top UK university reacted with defiance:

for what it’s worth, I refuse to apply for a piece of paper [leave to remain] that I don’t need and won’t be valid after Brexit – when current law says I don’t need it. It’s just a certificate. They can stick their 85-page form up their arses.

The level of anxiety is obvious: “I’m about to submit my permanent residency application. Any pointers from the rejections you’ve seen so far? Scary times ahead…” Another said: “as an Irish citizen I am assuming the Ireland Act will continue to provide my right to be here. But…”

A policy specialist from Oxford said: “people have been turned down for administrative reasons alone. The Home Office looks for any reason to say ‘no’ at the moment.” Or as another, retired, academic puts it, this is just “inhuman bureaucracy” at work.

How representative is all this? A recent survey of academics conducted by YouGov for the University and College Union (UCU) found that an overwhelming majority (90%) said Brexit will have a negative impact on UK higher education. Three-quarters (76%) of non-UK EU academics said they were more likely to consider leaving UK higher education. A third (29%) said they already know of academics leaving the UK, and over two-fifths (44%) said they know of academics who have lost access to research funding as a direct result of Brexit.
The impact on universities

UK universities are heavily dependent on academics from the EU. To cater for our global audience we need to attract the brightest and best and Europe is, unsurprisingly, a major source for such talent. Over 31,000 UK university academics come from the EU – sixteen percent of the total (all figures calculated from the Higher Education Statistics Agency data for 2014/15).

(Editors’ note: Universities Scotland says staff from the EEA (European Economic Area) and elsewhere make up 22.3% of the workforce at Scotland’s 19 HE institutions. “Scotland’s HE workforce is made up of 14.8% of non-EU and 20% of EU staff in academic and professional roles.”)

But this national figure underestimates just how important EU academics are to our top-rated universities. The London School of Economics has 38% EU academic staff. Other prominent London colleges – Imperial, King’s, University College London – have between a quarter and nearly a third. Oxford has 24% and Cambridge 22%. My own university, Manchester, has 18% and most of the Russell Group of ‘research universities’ are in the top ranks of EU academic staff employers.

EU academics are equally important in the core subject areas that are vital to our long-term economic health. So areas like physics (26%), chemical engineering (25%), biosciences (22%), chemistry (21%) and IT (20%) are all heavily reliant on European talent.
So what?

Our global status isn’t, of course, just dependent on EU academics – UK experts are our bedrock (70%) – but the other 30% that come from the EU and the rest of the world are an important part of our global status.

Losing this talent – whether through demoralisation or deliberate design – would have catastrophic effects. As Brian Cox puts it:

Ministers must consider our global reputation before uttering platitudinous sound-bites for domestic consumption, and think much more carefully about how to ensure that the UK remains the best place in the world to educate and to be educated. [UK Universities] are everything the government claims it wants our country to become; a model for a global future.

The current rhetoric is the absolute opposite of what is required. The UK appears, from outside, to be increasingly unwelcoming and backward looking.

They should be even more careful about the policies they enact and the way they are implemented.

The Home Office’s at best clumsy and at worse malicious handling of residency claims is causing huge distress and damage to our reputation. I am already hearing cases of EU nationals leaving, or planning to leave, because of the uncertain and unwelcoming future they now face. One academic lawyer acquaintance has already moved. We don’t know how many EU academics we’ll lose now, or in the future, as a result.

This article is reposted from the LSE Brexit blog and is published under a CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 UK license. It is an edited version of the post that first appeared on the author’s personal blog and was republished/edited by sceptical.scot

Further reading: Universities Scotland evidence to the Home Office’s independent Migration Advisory Committee

Scotland hit by brain drain, The National, 28 December 2019

CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 18:59

labour gets in only after a prolongued period of Tory rule, when enough voters get sick of their arrogance, their complacency, their incompetence and their sense of entitlement to rule as their birthright. This will come, sooner or later. But there is more.

Labour only wins when it has a leader who rejects the posturing and gesturing of its far left, either by leading from the centre or by posing as the leader of the 'true' left. The three most sucessful Labour leaders were all Oxford-educated moderates who isolated and quarantined the far-left and built a broad consensus in the party inclusive of everyone else.

They had their faults. Attlee took a secret decision to develop nuclear weapons without informing cabinet or parliament (but he did tell the leader of the opposition, his old boss.) Wilson obfusated and played both ends against the middle, saying different things to different cabinet colleagues out of either side of his mouth. Blair dismantled three hundred years of cabinet govt. doctrine and deliberately mislead cabinet and parliament in the service of his messiah-complex hunches. But for all that, they each kept their govt. together and remained popular with the electorate.

CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 19:02

....should have added, Wilson's tactical decision to side with Callaghan and the Unions against Barbara Castle paved the way for Thatcher. But for him, the leadership could well have gone to Roy Jenkins then Shirley Williams.

He's got a lot to answer for.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 19:09

DG I might add that when I or other UK expats here have enquired about our status in Germany, we have received sympathy and reassurance that we can stay,
no "hostile environment" here

We just have to wait for Brexit, then apply for permanent residence etc which we are told will be a reasonably easy formality
(Catch22 that we can't apply before Brexit, as EU citizens automatically have these rights)

The German Parliament even passed a special law in July to ensure we can stay if the WA was not passed before Brexit:

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/europa/Brexit/brexit-preparedness?openAccordionId=item-2208980-3-panel

.... on 31 July 2019, the German Government approved a bill for a situation where the UK withdraws from the EU without the Withdrawal Agreement

the aim being to create legal certainty for all UK nationals and their family members who have made use of the EU's freedom of movement
and made decisions affecting their lives in Germany in the legitimate expectation that this freedom of movement would continue.

The bill ensures that all UK nationals and their families residing in Germany under EU freedom of movement rules at the time of withdrawal will be able to receive a residence permit.

Furthermore, the bill creates the necessary conditions under residence law for these persons to continue to have access to the German labour market.

CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 19:19

I drove through Christchurch this afternoon

Did you also notice the signs telling you to take your rubbish home where the litter bins used to be. It saves a few pennies on the council tax.

frumpety · 30/12/2019 20:02

Its just someone has ruled themselves out at the moment but could become available in 2022.

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 20:09

crissmus
Chopetown gets what it deserves
£1000 saved on bins v. £10,000 spent on clearing up flytipping
forward thinking and all that Xmas Grin

bigchocfrenzy
I get regular emails from LeClerc he reads the threads more than I do and he confirms that France is making his life much easier than the UK would ......
TMs racist Home Office will take a while to unwind

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