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Brexit

Westminstenders: Social Conservativism

951 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/12/2019 16:11

The post election autopsy is starting to show something up. Finally. Brexit is part of wider political issues and fractures. This isn't exactly rocket science but it's an inconvenient truth that has been ignored.

We have something of a conflict going on between economic conservatism and social conservatism.

The Tories as the party of business were economically conservative and put this ahead of other issues. "It's the economy stupid."

But as this has continued this has opened up social division and the gap between rich and poor has laid bare social issues.

This is where Labour and the LDs are now becoming something of a cropper. In Brexit they continued the idea that the economy was the most important this and in doing so has fuelled the idea that they don't care about social issues. They are perceived to be putting the interests of businesses as more important than those people.

Of course it's not as straightforward as this. To fund ways to stop social issues you need good economics.

Add to this the progressive movement which has become authoritarian and has lost sight of certain social issues in favour of identity politics and you start to have a real issue. One that the EU as an identity has become caught up in in this country. The wedge to drive in the cracks.

Issues haven't been tackled because identity is more important and was prioritised. And we've had scandals arising out of this.

Instead we've had the increasing demonisation of social conservativism and the idea that if you question certain things you are backward or bigoted as a means to silence people. And now we've had a massive backlash against that generalisation and lack of nuance. And not seeing what was happening and having a self awareness of how this read to more socially conservative types.

That's not to say there aren't massive issues in social conservatism which can be indeed racist, homophobic, sexist and yes very bigoted in nature. The trouble is that the failure to be able to tackle nuance which identity politics forced and a failure to understand that the pace of change needs to be set by public consensus rather than top down authoritarianism has lead us to where we are now.

Rights set up to protect certain groups have failed in practice even if they exist in law. And those who professed to stand for the interests of certain groups forgot the origins of rights.

Thus undermining the entire centre left project, which in some respects the EU embodies.

We now find ourselves in a divided and ruled scenario where those who should have benefitted most from rights can be exploited by an elite who have successfully seen an opportunity to step into the void that identity politics created.

And now the left and liberals have to wake up to this reality and come up with a solution to it.

There is a lot of uncomfortable and difficult decisions to be made here.

The solution to the culture war isn't to push back harder and to become more authoritarian in tone about the right of 'right and wrong'.

It's to address why identity politics caused the left and liberals to forget their origins and purpose and why they established certain ideals in the first place.

Meanwhile whilst they figure out just how they lost their way and were blinkered by their own self righteousness, everything that the centre left project established will be gradually unpicked. Or if Johnson can do it, without being challenged, at some considerable pace.

It comes down to remembering your roots and having a solid connection with the reality of people's lives rather than high minded idealism and a sense of superiority. This is what people saw regardless of the noble intent of Labour and the Lib Dems.

'Social conservatism' were dirty words. Now they are the reality of the present. Whether we like it or not.

Economic stability has become secondary to this desire for social conservatism.

Labour and the Lib Dems have to adapt to this and will have to offer something to those with more socially conservative views to move forward now. The alternative is a very long wait outside in the cold of politics.

Liberal democracy is about balancing needs. You have to identify needs and you have to understand how to balance them for liberal democracy to thrive. Failure to do the former means the latter fails.

And here we are.

2020 beckons.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New to all.

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thecatfromjapan · 30/12/2019 13:12

Totally agree, BigChoc.

Totally.

But ... that was the argument with this GE.

And they blew it.

Next GE would need a massive swing - particularly since boundary changes & voter suppression will be in place.

Plus Johnson is not a complete fool and immeasurably less principled than May.

I just don't think the Hard Left have grasped that this election really was their only shot.

They've blown it for the rest of us, too.

🤷‍♀️

thecatfromjapan · 30/12/2019 13:15

I do wonder how long it's going to take many in the Left - well, the Corbyn Left - to grasp how cynical elements of the Hard Left are?

So many of them are very genuine.

I look at the leadership and I see a group gambling everything on a national crisis. And I see rank cynicism.

But other people see idealism and hope.

tobee · 30/12/2019 13:19

Just to add to my cheer Neil Innes has died who we were only talking about a few weeks ago on here. Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 13:20

derxa That's my point
In 1983, there was no prospect of an economic disaster that could let the hard left in, so the party realised it had to get rid of them

1983 also didn't follow 10 years of austerity;
people then hadn't had time to experience the effects of deindustrialisation and its long aftermath

Now, even just disappointing those who voted hoping for a better life would lose some votes
Many voters are fed up with life being so difficult for so long and have little patience for more of the same
It all depends on how they next vote, if they do - and they may prefer an even more authoritarian Tory party rather than hard left Labour

Remember too, that the best possible BRINO economically is one where the loss is not noticeable
it's not that BRINO will bring more prosperity than EU membership

So he has to achieve BRINO and then find additional policies that weren't tried in 10 previous years of Tory govt
Not impossible, but very tough to manage

tobee · 30/12/2019 13:22

Maybe only hope is a Corbyn friendly new leader who has the intelligence to see the light and become more moderate over the first months in office ? Not very likely.

tobee · 30/12/2019 13:24

But likely someone young and inexperienced will become the leader but be surrounded by old guard advisers.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 13:28

The continuity Corbynites don't care that angry voters are just as likely to turn to an even more authoritarian Tory party than to the hard left

  • and that FPTP in fact favours the former

To the Corbyn clique, a govt of the centre and / or the moderate left would be as bad as the most rightwing Tory govt

BigChocFrenzy · 30/12/2019 13:29

iirc Blair used to be much more leftwing in his 30s, e.g. unilateral nuclear disarmament

tobee · 30/12/2019 13:50

Pragmatism is needed

TatianaLarina · 30/12/2019 13:56

But the Labour party are in the grip of Momentum and there is no one strong enough to reshape the party to make it appealing to the majority of people. Brexit is a non issue now.

I have to disagree about Brexit. As an issue it will run for the next 20 years.

I’ve said this before but any reshaping of a party requires a group to work together. It’s hard for one individual alone.

Peregrina · 30/12/2019 14:01

Next GE would need a massive swing - particularly since boundary changes & voter suppression will be in place.

But this is the old rules - where you made sure that Labour votes piled up in certain seats. With the new voters 'borrowed' from Labour, Johnson might find that he's disenfranchising his own voters.

chatongris · 30/12/2019 14:50

"With the new voters 'borrowed' from Labour, Johnson might find that he's disenfranchising his own voters."

That's a risk for Johnson. There is a double risk for Labour though: first that lost voters continue to vote Tory (or to remain at home), second that disaffected ex-Labour briefly-Tory voters turn to a more extreme party. It's not as simple as you are making out.

chatongris · 30/12/2019 14:52

Basically, disenfranchising (some of) his own voters doesn't necessarily hurt Johnson as long as Labour continues to pursue politics in a way that we know does not attract the votes that used to "pile up" in Red Wall type seats.

dontcallmelen · 30/12/2019 14:53

PMK as I’m having trouble with MN on my iPad.

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 15:37
tobee · 30/12/2019 15:43

Agree about the "borrowed" voter concept being somewhat simplistic. Obviously not quite the same, but I can't see ex Labour SNP supporters returning to Labour any time soon.

Labour have taken support from certain areas for granted many times.

As I've previously said, after 2017 ge there were plenty of Labour supporters on sm etc saying that Labour would only need to build on the support they had then that enabled them to do as well as they did.. As if those voters were in the bag for any upcoming elections. The results of the local and euro elections of this year made a mockery of that notion. Hmm

tobee · 30/12/2019 15:44

Just seeing that link screenshot has made me well up LQ Sad

Peregrina · 30/12/2019 16:13

The results of the local and euro elections of this year made a mockery of that notion.

Even this is too simple - the Brexit Party and LibDems did well in the Euros and Local Elections. The LibDems did get an increased vote share in the GE but not enough to translate into seats but the Brexit Party came nowhere GE. Was it 2% of the votes cast? Admittedly, it could have been more if Farage had let his 'party' contest all the seats.

But yes, where did the Labour support go between 2017 and 2019?

chatongris · 30/12/2019 16:18

where did the Labour support go

Some of it just stayed at home.

tobee · 30/12/2019 16:31

Whilst I see what you're saying Peregrina and agree I'm being too simplistic, I was just referring to the Labour results.

Arguably the Brexit Party became unnecessary at the GE because of the way the Tories presented themselves between the Euros and the GE as a party of Brexit. And the Libdem's being a party of revoke allowing for their policy being based on them receiving a majority

ListeningQuietly · 30/12/2019 16:51

If you look at the constituency by constituency data

  • we did a chunk of it just after the election
In England Tory Vote stayed the same or went up by what had been the UKIP vote UKIP / Brexit party vote dropped a little Libdem vote stayed stable Green party and other minority party vote rose but not by much Labour vote dropped as some moved to Brexit and others stayed home so the result was that Labour lost far more than anybody else gained.

And the expectations of the New Blue constituencies will be incredibly hard to meet
Stoke is never going to be Singapore

howabout · 30/12/2019 16:56

The problem for Labour is that their base support is lower than they think it is.

In 2015 Ed Milliband polled 9.3m votes against David Cameron's 11.3m.

In 2017 Corbyn polled 12.9m against May's 13.6m.

In 2019 Corbyn polled 10.3m (still above 2010) but Johnson polled 14m.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than 2015 and slightly lower than 2017 so about the same as usual stayed home.

The major factor is the 3.9m who voted UKIP in 2015. Labour made a pitch for them in 2017 but disowned them in 2019. They are now Team Tory.

CrissmussMockers · 30/12/2019 17:02

The Momentumey line is:

The People they like our policies, but do not believe we can carry them out because they are influenced by the biased MSM.

So what are we going to do?

Er, we are going to keep putting forward our popular policies, and also complain about the biased MSM.

Could

Not

Run

A

Whelk

Stall

thecatfromjapan · 30/12/2019 17:06

You're forgetting the other Momentum line:

Blairites forced the Party to become pro-Remain and to lose the election.

Now we must back Brexit , help get it done, and the voters we lost will trot back.

🤷‍♀️

thecatfromjapan · 30/12/2019 17:09

Anyway, ChristmasMockers, you're way behind.

Apparently, we're going to get round the problem of MSM by joining WC grassroots organisations and educating the WC face to face.

(That's been all over social media and there are hints of it in some prospective Leader pitches.)

There's so much amiss with the idea, it's hard to know where to start.)

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