Westminstenders: Social Conservativism

[RedToothBrush]

The post election autopsy is starting to show something up. Finally. Brexit is part of wider political issues and fractures. This isn't exactly rocket science but it's an inconvenient truth that has been ignored.

We have something of a conflict going on between economic conservatism and social conservatism.

The Tories as the party of business were economically conservative and put this ahead of other issues. "It's the economy stupid."

But as this has continued this has opened up social division and the gap between rich and poor has laid bare social issues.

This is where Labour and the LDs are now becoming something of a cropper. In Brexit they continued the idea that the economy was the most important this and in doing so has fuelled the idea that they don't care about social issues. They are perceived to be putting the interests of businesses as more important than those people.

Of course it's not as straightforward as this. To fund ways to stop social issues you need good economics.

Add to this the progressive movement which has become authoritarian and has lost sight of certain social issues in favour of identity politics and you start to have a real issue. One that the EU as an identity has become caught up in in this country. The wedge to drive in the cracks.

Issues haven't been tackled because identity is more important and was prioritised. And we've had scandals arising out of this.

Instead we've had the increasing demonisation of social conservativism and the idea that if you question certain things you are backward or bigoted as a means to silence people. And now we've had a massive backlash against that generalisation and lack of nuance. And not seeing what was happening and having a self awareness of how this read to more socially conservative types.

That's not to say there aren't massive issues in social conservatism which can be indeed racist, homophobic, sexist and yes very bigoted in nature. The trouble is that the failure to be able to tackle nuance which identity politics forced and a failure to understand that the pace of change needs to be set by public consensus rather than top down authoritarianism has lead us to where we are now.

Rights set up to protect certain groups have failed in practice even if they exist in law. And those who professed to stand for the interests of certain groups forgot the origins of rights.

Thus undermining the entire centre left project, which in some respects the EU embodies.

We now find ourselves in a divided and ruled scenario where those who should have benefitted most from rights can be exploited by an elite who have successfully seen an opportunity to step into the void that identity politics created.

And now the left and liberals have to wake up to this reality and come up with a solution to it.

There is a lot of uncomfortable and difficult decisions to be made here.

The solution to the culture war isn't to push back harder and to become more authoritarian in tone about the right of 'right and wrong'.

It's to address why identity politics caused the left and liberals to forget their origins and purpose and why they established certain ideals in the first place.

Meanwhile whilst they figure out just how they lost their way and were blinkered by their own self righteousness, everything that the centre left project established will be gradually unpicked. Or if Johnson can do it, without being challenged, at some considerable pace.

It comes down to remembering your roots and having a solid connection with the reality of people's lives rather than high minded idealism and a sense of superiority. This is what people saw regardless of the noble intent of Labour and the Lib Dems.

'Social conservatism' were dirty words. Now they are the reality of the present. Whether we like it or not.

Economic stability has become secondary to this desire for social conservatism.

Labour and the Lib Dems have to adapt to this and will have to offer something to those with more socially conservative views to move forward now. The alternative is a very long wait outside in the cold of politics.

Liberal democracy is about balancing needs. You have to identify needs and you have to understand how to balance them for liberal democracy to thrive. Failure to do the former means the latter fails.

And here we are.

2020 beckons.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New to all.

Why would they do that on purpose???

It has been denied enough times it must be true, but there has been a general presumption in the UK that private motoring must not be encouraged at any cost. It's a combination of trying to leverage environmental concerns, with an infrastructure that rewards shit road networks with increased rail traffic. After all, if you were a megashareholder in you would be a tad browned off if no one used your trains because it was faster to drive.

See also bypasses that are slower than the route they replaced.

All of which being said, I think we are in a frustrating hiatus right now. A hell of a lot of improvements on roads won't be needed when autonomous vehicles start becoming extant. We might have to wait for quite a few fuddy duddys to leave the stage, but it's going to happen.

I can only guess that traffic modelling required vehicle speeds to be reduced at the junction?

Upgrading to remove switchbacks is expensive in both in terms of land take and earth moving though, so unlikely to happen

Expense is never a consideration in any UK public spending decision. It can be an excuse of course (and often is). But since government never, ever can't afford it's own pet projects, it's just that. An excuse.

Look at how much was suddenly "available" for Brexit - even though it had never been budgeted for.

Currently enjoying one of my Xmas pressies - (a digital copy) of "March of the Lemmings" by Stewart Lee. Only skimming for now, but this jumped out and hit me in the face ....

It’s not inconceivable that in a few years’ time, former Labour supporters might be tactically voting Conservative to keep Nuttalls’s far right out.

M3 J9 is finally going ahead next year - 25 years after the need was clearly identified

The Newbury Bypass was meant to go to the East but after 35 years the route was a nature reserve

The projects that will make a significant difference are the ones that do not involve driving a JCB through a polystyrene wall

like better buses and commuter trains in the north

but at least the UKs roads are not as burgered as those on Long Island

M3 J9 is finally going ahead next year - 25 years after the need was clearly identified

The M25 was originally suggested in the 1940s - we had to make do with the North Circular instead.

I think the upgrading of the M/A40 during the 70s and 80s was probably one of the last works that was intended to improve journey times. I always imagine that someone important was off on a certain day that it was approved and it snuck through by mistake.

DF has never lost his amazement at how pathetic English ambitions are ... after watching a programme on the "problems" with the London->Dover high speed channel link, he just commented all you needed was a ruler a map and a pencil.

We had friends in Hampstead, and Spaniards Inn always provoked comment ...

Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas.
Cold goose sandwiches here today!

One of the longest standing roads that never happened was the Kingskerswell bypass in Devon. I thought it had been mooted in the 1960s before finally opening about 5 years ago - but it seems it was much older than that.

The M3 has a junction 9 already, I am confused! Or is it going to be "improved"? I am always a bit suspicious about "improvements" as they rarely are.

Blaue
M3 J9 is one of those bits of roadworks that EVERYBODY who sees the design slaps their forehead
even Extinction Rebellion friends quietly admit its brilliant
..... 2 new slip roads .... one from M3 North to A34 and another from A34 South to M3 south
no other road connections
but even the naysayers admit that it will remove hours of traffic jams
and ease up local roads
without actually generating "new" traffic as its such a key pinch point

now M27 J6 .... that would be a fun one

Hello everyone, hope all are well. Just had to add my anecdote about Traffic Lights. Ever been to Macedonia (now known as Northern Macedonia)? Me and ds decided we'd circuit Lake Ohrid one day...

The traffic lights on the Macedonian side had Time Clock Displays which counted down the seconds (from about 30) when the lights would change from Red to Green. As you can imagine everyone is revved and raring to go.

Albanian roundabouts are also a mindshift. You don't stop before entering into the flow of traffic, because you will get hooted from behind for driving 'dangerously'. You just drive right straight into the roundabout and the flow of traffic, who let you (hopefully).

The traffic lights on the Macedonian side had Time Clock Displays which counted down the seconds (from about 30) when the lights would change from Red to Green.

The reverse (counting down from greed to red) would be more useful if the standard of driving (note the contemporaneous thread in AIBU about entitled red-light jumping) was better.

But I'm going to repeat what I said upthread. I think a lot of possible and potential improvements in UK roads are being viewed in the anticipation that most cars/journeys will be autonomous before too long. Which is going to be as much a transport revolution as the introduction of the internal combustion engine was 120 years or so ago. I think we're on the cusp of an Arthur C. Clarke moment. Or at least I hope so.

Will be picking up again on all your wonderful insights when Parliament reconvenes.

As a lurker and poster under many name changes, thanks for all the info and insights so far, and here's to an interesing 2020.

I have mostly been fuelled on red wine and fags since Sunday night, and am a broken woman after pub quiz (sunday, fell over dog on way home as so pissed) taxi duty (monday, DH work lunch), hosting party here (Tuesday) xmas lunch here for 8 (Weds) and mopping up from xmas lunch today (is it thursday? I have no bloody idea...)

am assuming that tomorrow will be when all political hell lets loose again, but perhaps if Johnson is away in the Caribbean nothing will happen? oops, silly me, there's always the Lab leadership race.

yolo sorry but you falling over the dog made me LOL!

autumn I took her home before raffle was drawn as it was hot and noisy (and I was pissed) - to be fair to her, she looked at me as if to say wtf are you doing? and let me pick up her lead again before we wobbled home and she had her biccy and went to bed - as did I minus the doggy dental treat!

yolo oh that’s even funnier! I thought you meant you got home and fell over the dog!

Poor dog. Aww.

dog was fine, it's MEEEE you should be sorry for! I was a little bit bruised and stiff on Monday tbh but had to struggle through and not admit that I was suffering to DH and DD2 and her boyf...

Ouch Yolo!

Quiet Christmas here. But we only have one day off anyway, I was working yesterday.

Brexit back in the papers again today, and the Times is saying what I was saying on here after the election - that many new Tory seats are highly vulnerable to Brexit. IMO - because the one constant about the Tory party is that it will do what it takes to get elected - this will inevitably have an impact on policy.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seats-won-by-tories-have-most-to-lose-from-boris-johnsons-eu-trade-deal-2ff7rptxn

Seats won by the Conservatives for the first time at the general election are particularly vulnerable to a bare-bones EU trade deal of the type envisaged by Boris Johnson, analysis for The Times suggests.
Research carried out by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found that a significant number of the so-called Red Wallll_ seats that the Tories took in the north and Midlands were dependent on high levels of EU goods exports for their prosperity.^

Also from that article:

David Henig, UK director of the European Centre For International Political Economy, said that while such projections were not an “exact science” the overall picture could present difficulties for the government. “So far we have really only had warning of what the impact is likely to be from industry groups like the CBI,” he said.
“The question is what happens when these new Tory MPs start talking to their local employers. As a former civil servant I know that when you get letters from MPs to ministers putting pressure on them directly it does have an impact.”

British industry has been extremely quiet about Brexit so far, but that doesn't mean it has been doing nothing. Now that the election is over, and Brexit is certain and therefore no longer political, employers are going to be much more vocal about it.

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/27/uk-economy-faces-weakest-growth-outside-of-recession-since-second-world-war

theguardian.com
UK economy faces weakest growth outside recession since second world war
Richard Partington
8-10 minutes

The British economy is on track for the weakest year outside a recession since the second world war, as political turmoil and Brexit uncertainty dragged down growth, a Guardian analysis reveals.

At the end of a turbulent year and following Boris Johnson’s election victory, surveys of business activity suggest economic growth in the final three months of 2019 has essentially stalled. The jobs market is showing signs of stress and public borrowing is steadily rising again after a decade of improvement.

The Bank of England has downgraded its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter as high street spending stalled and business investment was kept on hold before the election and amid Brexit uncertainty. Economic growth for 2019 as a whole is forecast to be just 1%, the weakest expansion outside a recession for more than half a century.

It comes as Andrew Bailey prepares to replace Mark Carney as the Bank’s next governor in March, tasked with steering the economy after Britain withdraws from the EU and while it attempts to strike new trade deals with other world partners.

The Conservatives promised a “tidal wave” of business investment would return to Britain if they secured a majority and unblocked parliament to take the UK out of the EU at the end of January.

However, two former Bank interest rate-setters warned the UK economy would continue to struggle for growth as Johnson faces complex trade talks with Brussels next year. The also warned the prime minister’s decision to leave the option of no-deal Brexit on the table will hold back business investment.

Writing in the Guardian, Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC), said: “A new government and a new Bank of England governor. This should be a fresh start for the UK economy. But the dark shadow of Brexit continues to overhang our economic performance and prospects.”

To gauge the impact of Brexit on a monthly basis, the Guardian monitors eight economic indicators, along with the value of the pound and the performance of the FTSE 100.

City economists made forecasts for seven of those barometers before the data was released and in four cases the outcome was worse than expected, while in three cases it was better.

The pound has rallied strongly and stock markets have surged in recent weeks amid hopes that Johnson’s new government, with an 80-seat majority, can make progress towards smoothly extracting Britain from the EU. There are also hopes for stronger economic growth spurred by a splurge in government spending.

The FTSE 100 has raced ahead since the election on the back of the unexpectedly large Tory majority and amid signs of a breakthrough in the US-China trade war – a dispute that has dragged down global trade volumes and harmed economic growth around the world this year.

However, the UK economy appears to have suffered in the run-up to the election. Employment growth relied on public sector job creation, as business across the private sector shed workers and wage growth slowed.

According to surveys of business activity compiled by IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, the snap winter election depressed companies’ activity levels in November. Suggesting the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, Britain’s dominant services sector – which accounts for about 80% of the economy – failed to grow for the third month in a row. Manufacturing and construction activity also dropped.

Economists said Johnson’s election victory could provide companies with greater clarity required to boost activity levels, supporting stronger economic growth, but warned that lingering uncertainty over a trade deal with the EU would continue to hold back growth in 2020.

Writing in the Guardian, David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank’s MPC, said: “Foreign firms and even some British firms will find it more attractive for many years to take whatever investment money they have to Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden – which all look like safer havens than the UK.”

“Firms continue to stockpile as insurance against possible disruption from a disorderly Brexit. None of this is good for UK growth.”

As a former civil servant I know that when you get letters from MPs to ministers putting pressure on them directly it does have an impact.*”^

Tell me about this, as a retired civil servant. An MP complaint letter got people jumping round like scalded cats, even if we had done everything right and the person complaining was one of those with a bee in his (nearly always his) bonnet.

I really can't see how the the usual Tory offer of tax cuts to those on £150,000 p.a. is going to encourage those who think they are in clover if they land a job at £20,000 p.a.

Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas.

Yes, travelled nowhere. Very green.

So,
How well do we all think Jolyon Maugham will do on funding his legal challenges after rather clubbing his reputation in the foot yesterday ?

And now I shall return to my Christmas jigsaw (bliss)