Brexit Arms - Out with the old and in with the new

[time4chocolate]

It’s time again for another Brexit Arms thread to see us into Christmas and beyond.

Well what a week it’s been!!

Boris has now completed his first week and he’s been busy. New conservatives have been sworn in, the Queens Speech yesterday shows promise (aware that the proof of the (Xmas) pudding is in the eating) and Boris’ Deal is going to be voted on today with the results being around 3pm I believe.

Meanwhile, on the other side all four wheels have definitely fallen off the red bus and were very nearly joined by a garden gate and a car door. Oh dear!!

Anyway, I have added a few more Christmas decs to the pub and popped the fairy back on the tree (it took a nasty tumble)

We are now good to go.
Cheers all 🍷🍷

Ps. If anyone wants to volunteer for outside catering that would be👍🏻

Lily “ On that one aspect alone, he reads the electorate far better than many elected politicians.”

I really hope so! I was out in the shops earlier - based in outer london - and I looked at the people in the supermarket and wondered how many of us care. Or know. I think the capture of schools and workplaces is a big problem.

I suspect many people won't give it much thought until it affects them personally or has the potential to affect someone they know - their children, for example.

My NPSRs proclaimed that they "had no problem with shared toilet and changing room spaces, doesn't affect us" until their 12 year old son said GN toilets and changing rooms had been introduced in his school and the girls were up in arms about it. The dawning horror on their faces was something to behold, and yet they'd dismissed all my arguments on the same grounds just minutes before.

Reality bites, I guess.

I've just read an interesting article by Tom Tugendhat on ConservativeHome as to why Soleimani's death might be the key to brighter prospects in the ME. It's a view that Charles Moore echoes in the Telegraph:

"The Sunni Arab world – not to mention millions of his fellow Shi’ites who deplore his unceasing violence – has even more reason to rejoice at his death than do the American or the British people. In Iran and its proxies today, there are well-orchestrated scenes of grief; but, as with almost all Muslim terrorists, the greatest proportion of the blood on Soleimani’s hands was Muslim. Most Muslims know that. The same part of the world now knows something it previously did not about Donald Trump. In Europe, we tend to think of him as a dangerous bully, but in the Middle East he has had almost the opposite problem. There, the President is widely seen as the latest in a long line of US leaders – most notably Clinton and Obama – who talk bigger than they act. Iran will have known that previous US presidents had contemplated killing Soleimani, but decided against it. Probably it will have assumed that Mr Trump was no different. Now that view of him has vanished."

The conclusion that both drew, although they came at it from slightly different angles, is that Soleimani was so ruthless about pitting one people against another almost everywhere - so long as it served to make him more powerful - that even those who regard each other as enemies will stay their hand for the moment.

I always found that in any situation on the cusp of turning violent, there was invariably a standoff moment when each side eyed the other in order to gauge what they might do next and how to frame their response. The person who can recognise that brief moment and do exactly the right thing can defuse the situation very effectively in a way that stops either side from feeling they have lost face.

I think - I hope - that we have a standoff. What happens next is crucial which is why I hope the back channels are red hot.

I follow a few people on Twitter who post a lot about the Middle East - they're unanimous in the opinion that his death is a good thing for a more peaceful future in the region.

Maajid Nawaz has done some insightful, laymen's terms summaries on it which chime with the stuff you posted Lily

Quilliam. Thought I recognised his name.

Russia have stayed mostly very quiet. I find that fascinating.

Ok massive research fail on my part. Russia have seemingly not stayed quiet at all. 😬🤦🏻‍♀️

“I think - I hope - that we have a standoff. What happens next is crucial which is why I hope the back channels are red hot.”

twitter.com/haqeeqattveng/status/1213473762814939136?s=21

This could symbolise intent.

Malylis If you understand how NATO works then you'll understand this.

Dh has just finished his second 3 year contract in the IS at HQ NATO in DPP. I have a fair grasp of how NATO works and is funded! He did 7 years in Brussels in HM Forces prior to that in a variety of jobs.

The 2% has been the target since the Prague 2002 summit, reiterated at Riga in 06 and again at Newport in 2014.

Robert Gates in 2011:' issued the prescient warning that Americans were beginning to grow tired of expending precious resources defending nations “unwilling to devote the necessary resources . . . to be serious and capable partners in their own defense.” '

Germany is trying to get all sorts of things included in the metrics for the 2% that aren't there now. What matters is how they spend it, and they aren't doing that correctly. Lots of stuff is out of service.

Yes, there are concerns about the UK as well - and these have been raised at the regular meetings, but we are in an uncertain world, and we need defence. The fall of the Berlin wall seems to have been taken as a signal that there were no more threats. That was short sighted, stupid, and will come back to bite us all in the arse. We weren't prepared in 39, we are not as a nation, or collectively, as part of NATO fully prepared now. Russia is resurgent, hybrid warfare is difficult to counter, the ME could go pop at any minute, and the Balkans are on a slow seethe en route to a rolling boil.

The 2 percent has been an unofficial target since 2002, formally since 2014 with a decade to get there.

The UK metric is greatly advanced by the operation of over seas bases, as well as its nuclear capability which costs about 14 percent of the entire budget.

The Germans don't have this or as large a navy but are increasing their spend.

Some gruesome photos on Twitter...not hidden either of Soleimani’s body...or what was left of it.

But there seems to be a feeling that the assassination will do what it intended and send a clear message. I don’t think Iran have the power to respond to the US.

I am still anxious about the action but given some this man’s actions and his hand in much bloodshed Im. It sorry he is gone.

“I am still anxious about the action but given some this man’s actions and his hand in much bloodshed Im. It sorry he is gone.”

Totally with you here.

I gather Pompeo is now trying to pin 9/11 on Iran
surreal
Glad that Raab is distancing the UK from the US action
and thank goodness Johnson is still at the beach and Corbyn still in his hall of mirrors.

I don’t think Iran have the power to respond to the US.

To me, this explains why the US aint bovvered. Because it will be other countries who take the flak, the terrorism, the diasporas (sp?). I can quite see that QS was a very bad man indeed, but that doesnt mean I can think that Trumpy's decision to drone attack him while in a 3rd country is a plan entirely without risk. (understatement in case anyone misses my intent).

“Glad that Raab is distancing the UK from the US action”

Agreed, but I doubt it matters, I’ve already seen UK flags being burned today. We are considered an accomplice to this action regardless. We are going to get dragged headfirst into this shitfest whether we like it or not.

As for Boris, I’m not sure On that, technically we are not involved in any action (as yet), so he is ‘technically’ not needed on UK soil at this stage and is no doubt fully abreast and appraised of all developments. That said, he should probably pack up his bermuda shorts and head back anyway.

Malylis It's about time the Germans spent more, and the pace of their increase is not fast enough. It's not like they don't have the money. Ditto Belgium which does very nicely out of the NATO and EU spend.

I am honestly on the fence here. I don’t know the true intel that prompted the assault. And whatever we hear henceforth, will ultimately be spin from every quarter who has a vested interest either for or against. I’m invoking switzerland.

Don’t much appreciate Trumps smug face at his weird evangelical outing though. It is a very serious incident and regardless of the belief in the rights and wrongs, should be treated with the solemnity it deserves.

agree about due solemnity epic. I have just discovered that I have lined the chicken coop with today's DTel news, rather than the section I meant to use... so will have to compare tomorrow's ST and DM for 'what the papers say'! Chickens meanwhile are no doubt reading up and clucking...

Tbf Yolo, your chickens have as much hope of predicting the outcome of all of this as we do! I look forward to their carefully considered update! 😂😉

Hi one and all 👋 it’s just after 5.00pm so o’clock😊

I’m very much on the fence too Epic with regards the ME situation, it has certainly been brewing for some years. I would imagine there was some strong intel gathering which we are not yet privy to.

Personally, I don’t feel that there is any real need for BJ to come back at the mo, not his/our fight (yet) and hopefully wont be 🤞

Hi time! Wave 👋 Can I have an OJ please? Dry 2020 over here... 😬😱😂

7 chickens, all rescues, all called Ginger. (this not gingerist, I have two ginger DDs). Quite honestly I'd trust them more than most of the current political tribe, although tbf there are a couple that are a bit pecky who might have 'something of the night' about them.

love that they are all called Ginger! 😂

yeah, better than Pecky, Bald Neck, Bald Bum, Scraggy Tail, etc etc and they will be hard to tell apart when all feathered up in a few weeks anyway!

Trumps smug face

Playing to his domestic audience as well as providing more evidence that he is Not Like Obama, I suppose. The Washington Post sent out a news alert earlier today. Its disdain for DT is well known but even it struggled to get off the fence, as opposed to the downright condemnation it usually prefers.

No action like this is without risk. The question is whether the inevitable backlash is a price worth paying for preventing an even greater cost. Soleimani seems to be generally regarded as the mastermind behind so many deaths that there was only one way, in the end, to stop him.

Yolo, one of next door's chickens is named Donald Trump. Yellow comb, you see. I look after the chickens when the neighbours go on holiday and the bonus is that I can have the eggs. How other many people can legitimately claim to have eaten an egg laid by Donald Trump?