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Brexit

Westminstenders: Election Special 3

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2019 09:43

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PawFives · 13/12/2019 11:54

I wonder if a lot of the problems for Labour were because it was fighting the last war? The discussion is all around why their traditional vote deserted them, especially when they will bear the brunt of further austerity, cuts, gig economy etc. But there political alignment has moved over time - Brexit was a symptom not a cause of this - and this time it finally caught up with them. It fits with a point someone RTB? made earlier about the importance of towns & cities, regional inequality, transport & housing issues. Labour do need to reflect on this and how they can generate hope again among their traditional vote and there isn’t an easy answer.

UltimateFoole · 13/12/2019 11:56

You're right, MaddyElla. That was poorly expressed on my part. Thank you for pointing it out.

I am genuinely curious as to how that particular headline 'Biggest Cons majority since 80s' feels to Lab-to-Con switchers who remember the Thatcher years as hard.

I did NOT mean "OMG, those fools must realise this morning they've made a huge mistake". That wasn't where I was coming from.

I was mulling over the idea that many of the Cons votes are perhaps very much on loan - for now. And that this government will have a lot to prove to some who voted for them.

The thought I'm getting at is the one expressed by our Prime Minister this morning in his victory speech 'And in delivering change, we must change too. We must recognise the incredible reality that we now speak as a one nation Conservative party, literally for everyone from Woking to Workington'

Piggywaspushed · 13/12/2019 11:59

Thanks RTB : hours of pointless fun ! Smile

I sent it to my DF and according to his DW he spent 8 hours playing with it. They are not happy today finding themselves once more in a Scottish Tory seat. Still, they chose to move there from Glasgow!

placemats · 13/12/2019 12:00

Okay. Been totalling all the votes.

Based on manifestos that favoured remain or a people's vote:

16, 828,671

Based on manifestos that favoured brexit.

15, 107,677

Make of that what you will.

I personally don't think that Johnson has any other option than a soft Brexit.

amd4578 · 13/12/2019 12:01

Maybe brexit will not be behind us but it will not be heavily debated in parliament week in week out and will be dealt with mainly behind the scenes. This then gives the government a chance to actually try to run the country which they have generally been unable to because of people like corbyn and the DUP and lib dems trying to stop brexit in its tracks because they didn't agree with the majority of the population!!

thecatfromjapan · 13/12/2019 12:04

I have many thoughts on Labour.

I've kept them bottled through this GE - who needed more negativity? - and I'm still keeping them bottled.

But my main interest is how many people on here are actual Labour members with a say in the next choice of Leader?

Labour, for good or ill, remains the main Opposition Party in England.

The Leadership contest appears to be scheduled for Spring.

How many of you guys are members and entitled to vote for the next Leader?

lonelyplanetmum · 13/12/2019 12:05

Everyone remember David Davis and his Schrödinger's impact assessment lies?

Rewarded with huge majority in his seat for Haltermprice and Howden

•	David Davis - 31,045
•	George Ayre (Lab) - 10,71
lonelyplanetmum · 13/12/2019 12:05

Sorry 10,716 typo.

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 13/12/2019 12:07

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 13/12/2019 12:07

Interesting placemats. That appears to be 52/48 to remain or pv. Overwhelming majority that

TheElementsSong · 13/12/2019 12:08

Labour, for good or ill, remains the main Opposition Party in England.

Just wait until I start my Cover Your Christmas Tree Bases Party.

HiHoToffee · 13/12/2019 12:11

I have been reading these threads for ages but I don't think I have ever commented on them.

My reaction?
Expected a Tory win but not with these margins and it sucks.

18 yo DS voted for the first time, (the only time he supports red, alas we live in a tory strong hold) and he has actually taken an interest in politics, it's something I guess.

I just don't know what to think and to expect anymore.

Danetobe · 13/12/2019 12:12

I hope the new labour leader is northern/from midlands (Phillips maybe). My hometown is northern working class and I am a committed remainer but I recognise the feeling of being overlooked or not valued by the metropolitan liberal elite. Not saying bojo is better then Corbyn at all but it always grated with me that the top labour team were heavily weighted to being London centric.

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2019 12:13

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats and Remain generally have been fighting political battled based on their perceptions of others and what they should think and based on a reactionary hindsight.

To phrase it as 'fighting the last battle' is a good way to see it.

Brexit was always a symptom of underlying political issues. It wasn't the cause of them. They crucially both missed this is part of an international trend. Yes its a culture war but preaching to the converted doesn't expand your congregation. Mistake 1.

You can only fight using the same political strategy once. If its rejected by the public you have to change tact, rather than flogging the same dead horse: see Jeremy Corbyn and revoke as strategies. Mistake 2.

Identifying your own weaknesses and being self aware is also crucial. Massive lack of awareness of how you sound to your opposition is a flaw. Mistake 3.

Material reality - identify the problem. These go hand in hand. It's about seeing what the problem is not what you perceive it to be. If a bunch of people are jumping up and down saying 'this is a problem' listen to it. Don't tell them to fuck off out of the party or not to vote for you. Mistake 4.

These rules don't apply in quite the same way to the right. And that's also a fundamental weakness and problem you need to recognise. What does the left and being liberal actually stand for? Mistake 5

Spotting your tactical moment. Knowing when to push on with an ideological idea and knowing when you are taking too many risks are strategic musts. Both Swinson and Corbyn missed their moments on several occasions. Mistake 6.

Corbyn's vision was very inward looking and I have to say the same about Swinson really.

Johnson chased a completely different section of the electorate. He had to appear different rather than appear 'like he was a continuity of what had gone before'. Leaver criticism of Remainers was sometimes phrased as 'continuity remain' and yes I think this was an important point. Mistake 7.

OP posts:
thecatfromjapan · 13/12/2019 12:14

Honestly, the predominant message I was getting from Labour members last night and today, was/is that Labour list this election because of Blair & because it became too Blairite.

If you genuinely think that is wrong (& for the record, I think it's delusional) people need to join Labour to change the direction.

Seriously.

Danetobe · 13/12/2019 12:14

The woman MP in Sunderland (can't recall her name ATM) is great actually also

Songsofexperience · 13/12/2019 12:16

Well, the Libdems are well and truly dead.

Motheroffourdragons · 13/12/2019 12:17

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

pinboard · 13/12/2019 12:17

PMK
I am disabled & a lone (now) carer for my two kids, both ASD, both in receipt of DLA (one at highest level). The oldest one is 15 and very bright (and very ASD). He's scared and his sister has picked up on it.

I'm terrified, frankly.

TheElementsSong · 13/12/2019 12:19

Good post RTB

pinboard · 13/12/2019 12:20

I too think BJ will be 'go large or go home' re Brexit and we'll crash out with no deal if the EU don't agree his terms end Jan. It's a nightmare.

placemats · 13/12/2019 12:22

I've never voted for Corbyn in the leadership contests. I found the meetings disorganised and scary so I gave up going.

Two of my children are members but are not active. I may consider rejoining and getting active.

I consider myself centrist but I was hard left on the link RTB posted earlier Hmm. My constituency is considered centrist, but believe me it isn't. The returning MP is a supporter of the ERG.

LouiseCollins28 · 13/12/2019 12:26

Will be very interested to see what sort of tone Boris strikes when he speaks later today. I thought his initial reaction to victory where he talked about votes having been "loaned" to the Conservatives showed more intuition than I'd previously been prepared to credit him with. Long may this tone continue, I say.

It seems obvious to me that former Labour Leave voters in traditionally solid Labour seats have lent their votes to him. I don't believe for one minute that all those voters will have overnight become long-term Tory voters.

That means the new Government is under pressure to deliver for those people, bigtime! One result of that is that (IMO) the government should be committing itself sharpish to doing some things that are well out of character for recent Conservative governments, including:

  • Large scale investments in public transport
  • Deliver on the promised NHS investment
  • Investments in skills/green economy/jobs type stuff
  • Haven't considered the practicalities of this one but I'd personally want to see the government show willing to absorb more of the cost of replacing the dangerous "cladding" still on peoples homes. This might go some small way to repair the damage of the tone deaf May around Grenfell.

Whether they will go in that direction or not I can't say, but IMO they absolutely should even if it does cost a lot. It would demonstrate that they are prepared to back the rhetoric with real support.

Letting the people down who have, so unusually, just voted for the Conservatives would be tragic for those people and a massive missed opportunity for the new Johnson government.

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2019 12:28

Cat, define 'blairite'

If you mean the Labour went to far to the right and away from socialism, yes valid point.

BUT

The reaction to that with Corbyn has been to go too far the other way to the militant left to a point where the centre felt it couldn't go. There was a willingness of the centre and even the centre right to embrace more socialism (the political tribe - the kind capitalists embody this) but Corbyn couldn't identify how far was too far for them to go. Because he didn't want to listen to moderate voices.

A radical leftist plan might be needed for the country but what Corbyn came up with was something that ultimately scared some voters off.

It needed to be a little more measured to bring the public along with him in greater numbers.

Instead this 'let's blame the blarites' is more of mistakes 1, 2 and 3 above. It's an unwillingness to share the responsibility of getting it wrong and not connecting with others beyond your own thoughts.

OP posts:
placemats · 13/12/2019 12:28

Motheroffourdragons

So Johnson is going to suddenly switch from being a liar to becoming honest and upstanding?

He's going to deliver what he promised?

That's not going to happen.

There will not be 50,000 extra nurses. Those 40 new hospitals will never be built. That much we know.

As for an oven ready Brexit. It's laughable. One thing is for sure, Johnson is NEVER going to crash out of the EU with a no deal.