Westminstenders: Brexit means Brexit. A definition.

[RedToothBrush]

Keeping this short. This is the Brexit fall out thread.

The one where we might get another glimpse of what Brexit means.

I'll post an election special thread shortly with links to various times and important seats (I wont get it done before the other thread fills so this is also a stop gap but please try and use the election special thread for today's events instead of Westminstenders when it goes live)

Don't know if anyone else has posted this but a fellow activist has circulated this to our group public.tableau.com/profile/christabel.cooper#!/vizhome/Time_15760854433110/Timings
Shows the time seats are expected to declare and includes data on current MP, leave percentage vote in 2016, and GE2017 data.

Cross party groups I work with in Scotland are gutted with how the People's Vote campaign has behaved here. For the entire general election campaign their so called tactical vote website did not give out any recommendations for Scotland - despite other tactical voting sites doing so. In fact if you inputted a Scottish postcode you got directed to a holding page that said they were consulting with campaign groups (no they did not - in fact they ignored our viewpoint) and candidates on the ground (doubt it). The 13 current Scottish Conservative MPs (who all represent Remain constituencies - every constituency in Scotland voted Remain in 2016) can only be beaten by an SNP candidate. It appears it was more important to the People's Vote campaign, even in Tory key marginals, to not recommend SNP than give factual guidance on what candidates were best placed to beat the Conservatives.

I hope for a sound Tory thrashing in Scotland.

Talk that the HoC will sit next Saturday and the HoL will sit between Christmas and New Year to get legislation for Brexit through at speed....

(Aka No scrutiny).

pmk,

PMK
Cat is hiding under the bedcover, or keeping me company, whichever.

As depressing as it is, in some respects a large majority could be better than a small majority.

It means he doesn't have to pander to the ERG to get things through.

Boris will do what is best for boris; his majority has come from taking seats from former Labour constituencies. Five years is a long time, and he needs to keep them happy once the whole 'get brexit done' thing is dead. I would hope it would lead to a more centrist Conservative party and an end to austerity, which has caused so much suffering and misery.

A hung parliament might have left us feeling more hopeful this morning, but realistically, could Labour and co have held it together? Or would we have ended up with another 'Brexit election' in twelve months time and every election going forward for a generation being based on whether we should be in or out of Europe?

@ClashCityRocker

Johnson moving the Tories back towards more central ground is pretty much what John Rentoul is arguing in The Independent today. He has a whole new swathe of voters to keep onside now.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-tory-victory-general-election-brexit-no-deal-optimism-a9244966.html

Clash I think I have to broadly agree with that.

Johnson will be able to get his deal though. I might not like it, but he's not at the mercy of the ERG threatening no deal.

It gives him room to move.

Johnson now has party discipline and as long as he maintains that relatively well he has room to tell his MPs what to do rather than be at their mercy.

It means his power isn't checked and balanced but he can move forward too. Including with potentially unpopular reforms. 5 years is a long time in politics and if he acts fast he can maybe not think about an election campaign for the next 3 years. He doesn't need to please the public or be accountable to the press. Just maintain order. Then think about political spin in 3 years time. He will come across as decisive as a result which will go down well with many too.

A hung parliament might have left us feeling more hopeful this morning, but realistically, could Labour and co have held it together?

Hung Parliament was never really on the cards imo. Corbyn very clearly couldn’t hold it together - and that’s partly why the result is as it is.

@ContinuityError

Thank you for that link to the Rentoul article. It has cheered me up (a little).

Speaking to people yesterday there was a sense that a hung parliament wouldn't solve anything. These were affluent remainers.

The way the Remainers and soft leavers haven't been able to find consensus is a big part of the problem here.

It was this sense of there being another couple of years of political bickering and not being willing to compromise on Brexit because everyone had this mentality of wanting to 'win' Brexit instead. (Jo Swinson I'm looking hard at you). Get Brexit done as a message that cut through about just biting the bullet and moving forward from that rather than the idea of liking Brexit or it being instantly resolved. Just breaking the deadlock.

I've spoken to quite a few soft LD sympathisers who just couldn't agree with a hard line revoke strategy at this point for that reason. Even if they were strongly remain.

In my immediate bubble they were all struggling to decide between labour, the Conservative or 'wasting a vote' for the LDs. I can see an argue for and against all three in my position.

No one liked any of the parties really though. Which was a situation none felt they had been in before.

The LDs did slightly better here than the yougov MRP which I think overcooked the tactical voting prediction.

The votes for the LDs very much let the tories in as the less affluent more working class part of the constituency went that way.

From who I spoke to most had cast their votes early by postal vote before the last minute squeeze seems to have happened.

The way the Remainers and soft leavers haven't been able to find consensus is a big part of the problem here.

Agreed. Historically - analysis will show the lack agreement on how to proceed, lack of political consensus, unified movement, was fatal.

For a while its been obvious that revoke was never going to work
because the only way people will realise how shit Brexit will be
will be when it happens

They will get their wish soon
and I will hide behind my stockpile

New York Times article is interesting for how things may progress
www.nytimes.com/2019/12/12/world/europe/uk-election-boris-johnson.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

No recent photos of cats so here's a different pmk.

So we're definitely looking at his timetable now? Leave in Jan 31st, transition until Dec 2020 and crash out with no deal whereupon we leave with a fabulous FTA?

Yes @HoneysuckIejasmine . And it is ALL on this government. They can't bleat about Parliament or Wrecker/Remainers. This belongs to them.

People voted for this, so they also can't blame the mc elite or anyone but themselves if they don't like the consequences of the govt they chose

People voted for this, so they also can't blame the mc elite or anyone but themselves if they don't like the consequences of the govt they chose
But they will
they will blame anybody and everybody except themselves
when job cuts come they will lash out angrily
still

Have to admit, I am struggling not to say "Fuck 'em" @ListeningQuietly . Even though my job could be vulnerable at some point.

@ListeningQuietly they will be blaming people like me(immigrant), like my friend (receiving PIPs) and the EU.
It’s easy because we’ve all been blamed already anyway. And we are THEM

Bellini
My household have been paying the price of austerity for many years
we are still relatively comfortable
but a lot worse off than we would have been had the Tories not decided to starve the public sector

Quite why people who were shafted by Thatcher thought Johnson gave two shits about them
I do not know

They will stil manage to blame Corbyn, if he hadn't been such an unelectable person, they wouldn't have had to resort to voting Tory.

There is always someone to blame.

@ListeningQuietly , the ugly truth is that people wanted this WA/Brexit shit over with or at least taken to the next stage and Johnson could deliver that. And Corbyn is not a vote winner to put it politely. Perfect storm of reasons why people lent their vote to the Tories. Even Johnson acknowledged that people who voted Tory this time haven't "become Tories". More people saw them as the least worst.
Don't kid yourself that people were hoodwinked. If Johnson fucks up, he's toast.
The look on his face was the same " Oh fuck" look he had when Leave won.

Bellini
The look on his face was the same " Oh fuck" look he had when Leave won.
Well it would be.
Bozo has never completed anything in his life ....
He will fail and people like me will be waiting to help him fall