Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Now that’s what I call a poll!

Britain EIects
@brianeIects
· Dec 10
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, constituency voting intention:

CON: 45% (-6)
LAB: 44% (+4)
LDEM: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (=)
OTH: 4% (+1)

via @DeltaPollUK, 06 - 10 Dec
Chgs w/GE2017

I think that, whichever way the GE vote goes, gloating about the result is a very bad look indeed.

If it goes the way I'm voting I'll be the first proferring bandages and tea to the defeated/deflated. And give sanctuary and recuperation to those that need/want it.

If the vote ends up with a 'hang' or something else - I don't expect the same offering of 'peace for all'; it would be nice but I don't expect nor rely upon it.

If the Brexity-side wins a majority, the last thing I shall do is gloat; I appreciate too much that so many are so against it. And will give you time to lick your wounds before I suggest snuffling into the warm blankets, inhabited by cats and dogs, that the rest of the world enjoys.

Homeless ex-soldier, 82, dies hours after being evicted from squat

Will people vote for more homeless deaths, or for more help for them ?
Of course they will because in their eyes people are homeless because they are feckless or druggies. Admittedly the ex-soldier is a bit difficult for them to wish away, but he's too young to have fought in WW2 so maybe they won't count him.

Apologies if this has already been posted:
www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/corbyn-momentum-viral-video-facebook-election?origin=btm-fd

In 2017, at the last election, the emergence of a crop of aggressively loyal digital advocates was a major reason for Labour’s unexpectedly good performance at the ballot box. This “alt-left” media lost its dominance over the online political conversation in the next two years while a new generation of hyperpartisan pages dedicated to Brexit soared in popularity. But when the new election was announced at the end of October, the Corbynites ramped up their online activity again.

“They’re outbidding us,” Labour told its supporters in a fundraising email on Tuesday, after reports that the Tories were planning to flood social platforms with targeted advertisements in the final days of the campaign. But this obscured the bigger picture. Advertising has been more widely discussed by pundits during the campaign, but “organic” reach — where users share content with their friends because it moves them, without the creator having to pay for it — is just as important for persuading voters. And on that front Labour has clearly dominated.

For all the attention that Johnson’s videos received, they were eclipsed by the top clips on Labour’s key themes. According to BuzzFeed News’ analysis, the most-viewed posts of the campaign related to the NHS and were skewed against the Tories.

A vox pop by Joe.co.uk asking British people to predict the cost of health services in the US was seen by 38 million people on Facebook and Twitter. An argument by the American actor Rob Delaney against privatising the NHS, which ran first on Corbyn’s Facebook page, was watched 14 million times on both platforms. And then there was Momentum’s clip of Morgan defending the Tories’ contested promises about recruiting nurses.

In contrast, Johnson’s take-off of Love, Actually was watched 5 million times on Twitter and Facebook. His meandering tea-break chat at Conservative headquarters early in the campaign got around 6 million views on both platforms.

That vox pop was shared widely among my US and Irish friends in the US and Ireland too. It was a thing of beauty.

Although on further examination its a bloody Han Dodges poll I swear that guy is going to be the death of me

So as you were people

If the Brexity-side wins a majority, the last thing I shall do is gloat; I appreciate too much that so many are so against it.

If the Brexity side wins and then it all goes tits up for them, personally, when they find that the Johnson Tories are not going to look after their interests, then I shan't gloat, but I won't have too much sympathy.
So when it's their child being treated on a hospital floor, or their child educated in a school with rain dripping through the roof, with an unqualified person 'teaching', I will think 'this is what you wanted.'

after reports that the Tories were planning to flood social platforms with targeted advertisements in the final days of the campaign.

And we have had to put up with their pestilential adverts on MN too. Which I scrolled past. It was more interesting to watch Johnson running to hide in a fridge.

poster I put the Survation figures into the electoral calculus seat predictor

However, I said in the same post that seat predictors can't handle local / tactical voting, so I don't expect that large a majority

Ah ok thanks BCF was really confused there for a sec

A final message from the PM:

Can't sleep but came across this hashtag trending on Twitter - what has Kuenssberg done now FFS? #PostalVoteGate

Laura letting slip that postal votes have already been opened?? BBC saying she hasn't broken electoral law.

twitter.com/i/status/1204846889214058499

@NarfZort just in response to the p.48 stuff, there doesn’t seem to be that much legal commentary out there on it so far. David Allen Green touches on it in his latest blog on his website. I believe he is eurosceptic and was a Tory advisor previously.

It’s mostly self explanatory stuff, they want to, among other things, curtail Judicial Review to stop further legal challenges by individuals such as Cherry and Miller. Many Brexiteers seem happy with this. One thing they don’t seem to appreciate is that once this damage to our checks and balances system has been done, it won’t be un-done, giving all future Executives much more power than they have currently if we as individuals don’t have the right to challenge them legally.

One of the arguments used by Cherry and Miller’s lawyers in the Prorogation case was that if the Supreme Court held that the decision to prorouge was not justiciable, that would ultimately give any PM unfettered power to prorouge whenever and for how long they chose. One of the examples they gave was that a PM could choose to prorouge Parliament prior to renewal of the Legislation on the Army, effectively disbanding it.

I put this particular example to the posters on the Brexit Arms thread (as they seem to be particularly concerned about Corbyn being a risk to national security) and asked if Corbyn as PM decided to do just that, do they think that it is a good thing that we currently enjoy the right to legally challenge the prorogation. Apparently this was deflection on my part.

Unfortunately most people won’t appreciate how delicate our current checks and balances system is, and won’t understand how crucial a role Judicial Review plays until it is too late, ie, until they realise that they are unable to legally challenge a decision by the Executive that they don’t agree with, such as the example given above.

Morning.
No voting for me today...postal vote posted 2 weeks ago!
I'm taking a friend to a hospital appt at 7am

Then buying snacks/chocolate/alcohol.
Love to all of you today and for the future...whatever it may bring.
Xxxxxx

And we have had to put up with their pestilential adverts on MN too.

AdBlock+
NoScript.

Sorted.

Oh no, I am welling up at a dear old man on Breakfast being brought a tree by some local college people.

Dear old Terence.

I think I am going to keep weeping.

Agree with all of the fellow lurkers and regulars, my knowledge of what is happening in our world is so much better now than it was 12 months ago thanks to these threads. So many things have made me [aad] & over recent times and I've changed IRL to be I hope more thoughtful about other's plights as a result. Off to vote now in our "Likely Conservative" constituency (which has moved from Safe Conservative in the last two weeks), we have light snow showers and I'm hoping that deters many of our older people from going out.......our Tory incumbent only has a majority of 3,000 so it's all to play for. Heartfelt thanks to you all, and all the & we need to get through the next 24 hours xxxxx

sorry should have been &

BigChoc what a lovely story , all those people helping to bring the voice of Oswald back for his wife. Thank you for sharing it

My belief is that come Friday the results will show that Labour voters voted Libdem to stop the Tories but the Libdems will not have reciprocate the action.

This is tribal nonsense. Apparently it's estimated that about the same % of each party will be tactically voting. The LD members' Facebook page was about 60/40 FOR tactical voting (which caused loads of arguments).

@JustAnotherPoster00

Where did you get that Uxbridge poll from... Unless I’m missing something, it’s neither on BritainElects or DeltaPoll’s pages. The fact it references brianelects makes me wonder whether it’s a fake poll?

My belief is that come Friday the results will show that Labour voters voted Libdem to stop the Tories but the Libdems will not have reciprocate the action.

Based on the way the polls have moved in the past week, it seems quite a few of those planning to vote for the LDs until very recently have decided to vote tactically.

@JustAnotherPoster00

Sorry, just seen your follow up.

Surprises me though that there have been no such polls

I agree, that’s my Santa, although watching Jo Swinson last night on Peston almost turned me off tactical voting. Her message is so irrational, stop Brexit at all costs but we won’t work with Corbyn. I do find her difficult to like. I want to like her. I think it must take immense ability to manage a job like hers and a young family (and yes I know she has a partner), but she lacks empathy and humility and it turns out I value those qualities.

Happy voting today all those heading to the Polling station

Think we will all be traipsing along there again quite soon. I don't think Boris has the stamina or attention span to do the job long term. I wonder who will follow him and pick up the pieces and end up being the one to not get brexit done ?

Voted
There was a queue, at 7am for what it’s worth
Never seen that before
12 hour shift and see you all for exit poll? Good luck talk to everyone and remember to hope!