Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

On the YouGov MRP for my constituency still vv safe Tory seat but Lib Dem moving up. 4 labour votes in our household, but one student voting at university where their vote actually counts.
BUT, neighbouring seat too close to call, Lib Dem may well take from Tory. Has been Lib Dem before. Anecdata - v strong Lib Dem canvassing there with help from our constituency, loads more LIB Dem posters and no Tory, particularly absent the large ones in farm fields. Fingers crossed.

fridgegate has now scaled the dizzying heights to become no 1 trending on twitter

Laura Kuennsberg to deploy a story about a labour activist kicking a cat in 3 ... 2... 1...

Also loving all the tweets telling us what their close friend, a senior nursing sister at Leeds Hospital* , has to say about the fridge.

*still not called Leeds Hospital. It's the LGI.

Me and (French) DH had words last night because I can't muster up enough interest in the pension strikes going on here. Feel my pain, being shafted in my home and adopted countries simultaneously...

I’m probably being really stupid, but does the YouGov & other predictions take in to account the rise in voter registration & that many young people who didn’t get a say in the referendum, would use this election as a way of having a voice in the possible Brexit outcome clutching at straws I know.

Cat

Surprised by YouGov having Southampton Itchen (I’m in Test, but lived in Southampton Itchen most of my life) as likely Conservative... Hoping the large increase in voter registration in Itchen means Royston Smith will lose his tiny majority (under 35).

My constituency is now safe Labour according to the MRP, which fits with what I'm seeing locally. DH and I were almost wishing we lived in a marginal constituency so our votes would make a difference!

Fridgegate reminded of Marina Hyde's description of BJ interactions:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/06/tories-johnson-scary-manifesto-scrutiny-safari-park

"So we know we have a prime minister who needs to be kept away from the public.
The Tories would really like us to view Johnson in a sort of political safari park, through which paying punters – and we’re all going to end up paying – would be encouraged to drive through at some pace.

It’s best not to stop, or he’ll climb on your car and pull off your windscreen wipers,
or attempt to mate with your exhaust."

Some straws...For those depressed I have two points:

1. There are millions who do not want this. You are in good company.

1. There was another Tory PM who reigned as a dictator and we did eventually depose her.

--

This summary from the Independent does make me think ... ok let Johnson own it. (Not much choice now anyway.)

" Among other things they will: preside over a protracted post-Brexit recession;
a collapse in sterling;
starve local services and the welfare state of funding when the comprehensive spending review comes round;
fail to conclude a trade deal with the EU in time;
fail to negotiate an advantageous trade deal with anyone else including (especially) Trump’s protectionist America by 2024;

dismantle the constitutional checks and balances supplied by the Commons and the courts, as per page 48 of the Tory manifesto;
shut down Channel 4;
neuter the BBC;
cut taxes for the rich;
pack the House of Lords with more Tories and appoint placemen and placewomen to top jobs in the civil service, diplomatic corps, Bank of England and quangos;
privatise anything not specifically ruled out by their manifesto."

The Tories would really like us to view Johnson in a sort of political safari park

From experience, I can tell you if a lion wees on the bonnet then no neighbourhood cat will come anywhere near your car for weeks

LIke red I'd be astonished if there isn't a Tory working majority
Sadly, I expect at least a 30-40 seat majority
but that is an improvement on the 100+ majority that I expected when the GE was called

pp asking why the Opposition agreed to a GE they would expect to lose:

Too many ex-Tories were still loyal to their party other than stopping No Deal (temporarily) so would not agree to cooperate on anything else.
They would not agree to a GNU to replace the Tories - even if JC had stepped aside, they would not support any leader from another party against their own
Their support was only ever very tentative and short term

Also, the LDems expect to gain seats, although they likely won't get the 20+ gains predicted at the start of the GE

The Tories destroyed large parts of the country in the 80s and still got reelected in 1992. Brexit will effect the same areas, wealthier areas will just begrudgingly weather the storm.

There was another Tory PM who reigned as a dictator and we did eventually depose her.

I’m sure we’ll get rid of this lot eventually, but I’m so worried that much of the damage they do will be irreversible e.g. not possible to bring back the NHS once it’s gone, punitive clauses in US trade deal. Plus you can’t bring back anyone who dies as a result of what’s going to happen, can you?

The staff at St James’s will not be happy with the LGI being called ‘the Leeds Hospital’ icanhaspretzels!

lonelyplanetmum Much though I later came to despise MrsT and her policies, her political campaigning tactics were just bog-standard sucks-boo party stuff
She didn't dismantle constitutional safeguards

BJ is a genuine danger to our democracy,
the British trump or Orbán,
who will take a wrecking ball to democratic safeguards, to checks & balances on Tory power
who will use gerrymandering of the electoral system to counter the demographics that longterm favour the centre & left

From the mirror:

Tory Justice Secretary Robert Buckland has claimed there is a "sinister" campaign to encourage tactical voting against Tory candidates.

He claimed to have seen leaflets urging people to back candidates tactically which did not include an "imprint" - a legal note telling the reader who produced the ad.

And he warned the Tories could "look again" at campaigning rules after the election, telling LBC Radio: "After this election we need to just consider again how the rules are policed."

It comes after a furore over page 48 of the Tory manifesto, which hints at sweeping reforms to the entire legal and governing framework of the UK.

And Corbyn's the scary one

BigChoc Just want to tell you I've used a lot of your insights on the doorstep.

You're so clear and concise; it's been a gift.

Remember your observation: This is about who gets all the marbles for the next two decades?

Well, that works. It communicates.

Thank you. 💐

Queen that’s my fear as well, it’s as though the country has become a mad collective bunch of lemmings & cannot seem too grasp that the stupid mantra Lets get brexit done is one of the biggest lies ever told.

At least they'll have to own the get brexit done slogan.along with the 350 million for the nhs. If people don't wake up after that there is no hope.

There was another Tory PM who reigned as a dictator and we did eventually depose her. I didn't vote for Margaret Thatcher but I seem to remember she won three democratic elections. She was deposed by her own party.

It does seem it's time to baton down the hatches.

We just need to survive the next 5 years.

I will look after mine and mine alone going forward. To do what we can to see us through the next 5 years

At least they'll have to own the get brexit done slogan.along with the 350 million for the nhs. If people don't wake up after that there is no hope. They'll just believe the next lie or excuse. Or they'll wake up when it's too late and democracy's already been dismantled.

Not yet, Random.

Not until Friday morning.

From now until Thursday 10pm, give it what you have.