Westminstenders: 10 day count down

[RedToothBrush]

10 days to go...

... Wake me up when the shit show is over.

The polls aren't looking good are they?

It doesn't reflect what I'm seeing on the ground, however I'm aware that I may be in a bit of a bubble. Still going to keep trying to get the message out. I'm finding the most effective way at the minute is to get them talking about what, personally, is causing them suffering. Sympathise with them and listen to them. And then gently ask them why they think its ended up this way. I wait for them to bring up the government, and then say 'well, at least there's a general election coming.'. I hope I've at least given them something to think about!

That school cuts page is very interesting! I live in an affluent, underfunded area and we have ALAWTS been led to believe the school I work in will have funding levelled up.

That one , as I said all along, is smoke and mirrors : it's not really what is happening: everyone gets the same shit funding. It's a levelling down.

In that case I think we are looking at a fair Tory majority, aren't we.

In my opinion, yes, although it's not that simple and this isn't a two horse race.

A lot depends on how remainers behave in individual constituencies - there are lots of Tory remain seats in the SE which could be vulnerable. Tories will probably lose some seats in the south and Scotland, so they have to win quite a few very traditional labour seats.

Critical point is going to be turnout among young people ie under 25s who didn't/weren't old enough to vote in 2015/2016/2017. If there is a higher than usual turnout in this group then current polling will be wrong because young people people break strongly for Labour.

I'm sceptical but it's not impossible. It's a strange election.

these people ought to be the natural constituents, impoverished, homeless, relying on benefits, for the Labour party. And yet they're not... why not? . Can anyone tell me why they wouldn't see this??

A few reasons...

1. No party is 'owed' anyone's vote

2. No Party is the 'natural choice' of a particular social/economic group - people within those groups are not the borg

3. Labour under JC talk the talk about tackling all of socials ills but then he wanks on about cutting rail fares, ditching university fees etc
   His Everyone Better Off! claim is only true if you're young, part of a couple, both working, using childcare & commute to work by train

4. As a person, he has dubious values (see indifferent to antisemitism, love of terrorist organisations, hatred of the West)

5. He looks both ways on Brexit (the major policy priority for many people)

There are many more reasons, but there's a starter for 5.

Not quite fair, Dusty.

The single biggest reason for food bank use is the 5 week wait for UC.

A huge part of Labour's promise this GE is to scrap UC - & other benefit iniquities such as the bedroom tax (which also pushes people into poverty).

And it's clear that poverty is always front and forward with Labour. So, no, I don't think that the only people who will be better off under Labour are a couple with kids.

When working-class people vote conservative, as most do in the US, they are not voting against their self-interest; they are voting for their [lack of]moral interest

It wouldn't surprise me to see some of the more specific Facebook and twitter ads that certain voters are getting which highlight some of the Lib Dem and Labour policies towards the LGBT community and say that 'we will protect you from these people'.

And I have no doubt they would work.

Hi all, I'm not keeping up much these days.
The offensive sign has gone from cottage in Marple Bridge. I suspect it may now be swimming in the River Goyt. Or the people who live there have seen sense. Seems unlikely.

Tory propaganda has gone straight in the recycling bin but maybe I should have returned it to his office as is only up the road. Labour have been non-existent. Mum has sent off her postal vote and has voted tactically to get the Tory wanker out.

A huge part of Labour's promise this GE is to scrap UC - & other benefit iniquities such as the bedroom tax (which also pushes people into poverty).

And replace it with what?

It's all very wonderful to make grand pronouncements but what comes next?

There's nothing wrong with UC as a system - it's pretty good actually
However, it does need to be paused & the anomalies & inherent problems properly addressed

Bedroom tax? No different to military housing since it began - if you're living above entitlement you pay the difference.

However, the failing with the 'bedroom tax' (not a tax) is that people are paying for the above entitlement difference when it is not their choice to live above entitlement - in the military if there is no accommodation which fits your entitlement & you go above then you only pay the rate you should have (ie lesser)

(Further, If you are in above entitlement because none available at the proper size then you shouldn't have to move when one becomes available - you retain your right to stay at lesser rate)

As with UC, there are problems, yes, but overall there is nothing inherently 'cruel' about it

I think lonelyplanetmum and chomalyngma are right about the moral/culture war dimension of voting.

Johnson is - as we always say on these threads - hugely influenced by what is happening in US politics & openly uses Bannon-style strategies.

Both the US and UK progressives have yet to develop methods of effectively countering this.

Though clascityrocker's approach of individualised listening must surely be right up there as the best 'cut-through' approach.

The problem being, how do you manage that individualised listening approach in a mass society?

Aah DustyDiamond I'm glad you've come on here and mentioned Labour's policy on reducing train fares by a third. I almost commented on the Brexit arms thread but have vowed not to post on there any more.
You seem to be under the impression that the the only people who will benefit from this are wealthy commuters in the SE, but this really is not the case. For many of us who don't own cars, the train is essential if we want to go anywhere a bit further afield. Yes, we use the bus more than the train, but the bus won't take us to York or Liverpool for the day!
Train fares have risen above inflation year on year, and I believe they are among the most expensive in Europe. People like me, who look forward to a nice day/weekend out once a month or so will be the ones who take fewer rail journeys. The ones who you are worried will benefit, the well off, will be the only ones who can afford to travel by train.

No, the bedroom tax - when you have a housing shortage - is really abhorrent.

It takes no account of the fact you may be in social housing and moving out to find somewhere with fewer rooms will actually drive your rent up (as well as being an emotional strain).

It also fails to account for the fact that people may need HB only for intermittent periods - so moving out, moving children's schools, taking the hit of the cost of moving (+ deposits) - is an incredible financial hit for what may be a temporary situation.

It also takes no account of the reality that many people needing to claim HB are carers and need that supposedly extra room.

It's an awful, punitive sanction - that costs more to implement than it raises.

UC is not 'pretty OK'. Problems with it - particularly the 5 week wait - were flagged up from its conception and throughout the pilot schemes.

Those two things alone are incredible drivers of poverty.

dusty
Come and do a shift with me at foodbank and lets see how "ok" you think UC is....
Some people really do believe they are insulated from what happens to "others" don't they?!
Well, unless you're independantly wealthy like most of the Tory govt, then it could happen to you.

This is a short study of food bank use in the UK.

Another way of putting that is: a study on causes of food poverty in the UK.

www.trusselltrust.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SoH-Interim-Report-Final-2.pdf

I don't go with 'feelings' based on a wish that those in poverty truly are responsible for their own failings/bad luck. Nor do I tell myself fairy stories that they Conservatives are all right really' because I'm scared I can't do anything about this government.

I read studies and look at what experts have written.

I think a lot of people tell themselves the Conservatives are 'all right really' because they are scared and feel impotent.

☹️

@DustyDiamond you seem to forget that on average UC meant that people have been receiving LESS benefit overall in the first place. It’s not just teething problems and aberrations that needs to be ironed out. (Like loosing UC because you’ve been paid twice in 4 weeks. Never mind that it’s the way the months fall and you still need the money/are entitled to it. And then you need to REAPPLY which means another 6 weeks lost).

If it was just small problems, there wouldn’t have been such an increase in food bank users.....

Re the bedroom tax, you know very well what the issue is. As soon as an 18yo goes to uni/training somewhere away they are not ojart if the family. The family supposed to downgrade to a smaller house. Except .... where is that 18yo living during the hols? University is only 22 weeks long.
Same with disabled people who need an extra room for their equipment or a carer.
Or older people who end up as a couple/1 person and are told to move away from their network support/friends and family (because there are very few houses for couple/1 person so they are likely to find themselves having to move). That has a cost. Not just fo them but for the society (increased in depression, increase use of the NHS/A&E etc etc). It’s completely different than military people who will younger, won’t be spending their life in one place etc...

John Curtice on Today prog talking about the polls. What he said made sense, of course. But at no point did he mention "don't knows".
I think leftish Remain ex-LDs (for whatever reason) will go Labour and non-extreme Levers will stick with the Conservatives. So both LDs and BP are squeezed, but LDs more so.
OTOH perhaps many Remain Conservatives will go LD in certain constituencies, so it will even out.

I haven't checked the data sets recently but does the (consistently and higher than usual) proportion of "Don't knows" also include "Won't say"?

On another topic, my teen ds pointed out to my a website telling you where your ideas are on the political spectrum. So a series of questions that will tell you that you are confortable with labour/green/conservative policies.
It was also showing what people had chosen nation wide. The results were about 24% labour, 20% ish for greens and LD, 17% conservatives. So basically people want policies on the left hand side of the political spectrum but it looks like they will give a majority to the conservatives.

This makes me wonder, why are people voting the way they do? Because it sure doesn’t seem to represent their own feelings about what they wouod like to see happening policy wise....

Some people really do believe they are insulated from what happens to "others" don't they?!
Well, unless you're independantly wealthy like most of the Tory govt, then it could happen to you.

Therein lies the problem, too many people don't believe the downward path could happen to them. Yet they look at the upward path (towards equivslent independent wealth of ConservatERG ministers etc) and do think that could happen to me.

Our class system fuels the Tory dream giving unrealistic hopes and aspiration like the odds of winning the lottery. It's statistically absurd, especially given the actual policies of those already at the top.

mother

You are spot on about p. 48 of the Tory manifesto.

Anyone who is even vaguely patriotic should be concerned about that.

Only nutty authoritarians would be welcoming it.

And, yes, it needs to be talked about a lot more.

I think one problem is that it sounds so abstract, improbable and dystopian, it's hard to actually convey how grim it is without sounding alarmist.

But really, truly alarming is exactly what it is.

Essentially, it throws the checks and balances of our political and legal system in the fire and replaces it with the goid will of subsequent governments.

Which is insane.

You seem to be under the impression that the the only people who will benefit from this are wealthy commuters in the SE, but this really is not the case. For many of us who don't own cars, the train is essential if we want to go anywhere a bit further afield. Yes, we use the bus more than the train, but the bus won't take us to York or Liverpool for the day!

Yay! For the people who will get subsidised train outings for jollies as well as commuting to work!

....but what if the majority who live nowhere near a train station? 🤔

For example - I live in South but to get to a train station it's a 30 min drive or two infrequent buses

That's the closest rural station

The closest mainline station is an hour at least on a bus

Some people really do believe they are insulated from what happens to "others" don't they?!
Well, unless you're independantly wealthy like most of the Tory govt, then it could happen to you.

I'm just coming off 4 years on benefits 🤷🏻‍♀️

Well, the train fare reduction may not be immediately relevant to the tiny percentage of those in your situation, Dusty.

But given how many people have been priced out of living anywhere but a long, expensive train ride to work - I guess it will have an appeal to many.