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Brexit

Westminstenders: Manifesto or Bust?

982 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2019 17:44

The Brexit Party aren't doing one.

The Labour Party apparently can't afford theirs.

The Conservatives will just lie anyway.

And the LDs got upstaged by Prince Andrew's resignation from royal duties for being a fuckwit.

3 weeks to go...

OP posts:
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23
DGRossetti · 24/11/2019 14:39

The LSE article is quite thorough. However I do remember a salesman for one polling company that a previous employer used remarking that it wasn't so much he had to convince us his company was right, than other companies weren't. We return to basic business. I don't have to convince you my product is the best if I can convince you the two alternatives are shit. (Which explains UK politics ....)

Maybe all the polls are significantly out, and maybe all of them are wrong in the same direction - but how likely do you think that is?

It would all depend on whether they are making the same mistake Grin

When the terracentric view of the solar system persisted, all models came unstuck in exactly the same places, which should have (and indeed did) alert some to the possibility there was a basic flawed assumption.

The fact we can't find 95% of the universe should alert us now to the fact that there is more in heaven and earth than is dreamt of in any strange philosophy.

And scientists have found sugars in meteorites recently. Which is not as some clap-happy fundamentalists think of as proof that God invented sugar cubes, but more that the possibility of live arriving from extraterrestrial origins cannot be discounted.

Random18 · 24/11/2019 14:39

Bellini but don't you see it you are saying that you would never vote Labour - ok it's your choice.

But then you say you would if BXP could get it in.

You have that choice due to FPTP.

derxa · 24/11/2019 14:41

Corbyn isn't the problem. He most definitely is. I would have voted Labour with a sensible Labour leader in charge. I don't like the direction the Tory party are heading. Some of us are older and remember the 1970's - strikes and the IRA. Jeremy Corbyn supported the IRA. I can't get over that. His goal was to take power away from the PLP and he has succeeded. Hence the exodus of decent Labour MPs. And behind him lurks the sinister John McDonnell.
I read the BTL comments on the Guardian every day. They mostly loathe Corbyn on there.

Mistigri · 24/11/2019 14:41

But Parliament triggered article 50 after the stupid referendum. Once that happened, any arguments about a fucked up referendum fall away.

Nah. Parliament can vote something in and the next parliament can vote it right out again. The argument only goes away after a withdrawal agreement is ratified or after a no-deal Brexit, at which point argument becomes pointless.

But no parliament can bind another. That's just basic British constitution 101. If the tories don't get a majority (big if) then Parliament will get another say on the matter.

BercowsFestiveFlamingo · 24/11/2019 14:43

I see the Tories have a magic money tree now too 🙄

JustAnotherPoster00 · 24/11/2019 14:44

Maria Gatland

Maria Gatland is a councillor in the London Borough of Croydon for the Conservative Party, representing the Croham ward. She is also a former Croydon Council cabinet member for education, a post she resigned from after being exposed as a former member of the Irish Republican Army.

Hmm
ListeningQuietly · 24/11/2019 14:45

Have just found this really interesting article on the LSE Blog that Mistigri shared ... have now bookmarked that site
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/11/15/long-read-brexiteers-might-have-succeeded-but-brexit-will-fail/

And its why I will hold my nose and vote for the party that is currently led by Corbyn.
Because he will do less damage than the other options

Mistigri · 24/11/2019 14:46

It would all depend on whether they are making the same mistake

Sure. But this is the trumpian argument that you know better than those experts, especially when they deliver a result you don't like.

Do you really believe that polling companies don't think about this stuff?

There are lots of reasons for criticising opinion polling (many identified in that article - in particular, that polls don't just follow they also lead). But the idea that polling companies are all wrong in the same direction because their sampling experts can't identify basic issues with sampling is just foolish.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 24/11/2019 14:47

Jeremy Corbyn supported the IRA.

You mean sympathtic to the argument their should be a united Ireland? And an understanding as to how physical force Republicanism came about? (Clue - it was alot earlier than 1969).

And behind him lurks the sinister John McDonnell.

Sinister how?

I read the BTL comments on the Guardian every day. They mostly loathe Corbyn on there.

You must be reading a different Guardian to me. Is it the Manchester Guardian?

DGRossetti · 24/11/2019 14:47

So what? Murdoch is a twat that backed w winner.

No.

Murdoch is a "twat" that made a winner.

It was the Sun Wot Won It

bellinisurge · 24/11/2019 14:47

No, @Random18 , I said I would never vote Labour under Corbyn with two provisos - if the Brexit Party were a genuine threat in my constituency, I would vote Labour to keep them out. If my sitting Labour MP changed his position on an important local issue, I would probably vote Labour using the " hair on fire " principle.
That is my constituency. Other people can vote how the fuck they like.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2019 14:48

Even more so than the 2017 GE,
I wouldn't be astonished by a hung Parliament or a 150 Tory majority or anything in between

The polls can't cope with our current politics,

where Brexit can matter more than the traditional left vs right
where the country is bitterly divided, angry and volatile

Add to that
the hard right continuing the Leave campaign of online deception
and the Labour leader being even more despised / demonised than Labour leaders usually are

I wonder if even the 10 pm Exit poll will be reliable, unless it is indeed a Tory landslide ? Hmm
Normally pretty much exact and you can go to bed knowing the result already
However, this GE, would it be sufficiently reliable to distinguish a hung Parliament from say a 30 seat majority ?

DGRossetti · 24/11/2019 14:54

In 1983, Ken Livingstone "supported" the IRA. I know, because I read it in the Daily Mail.

Only he didn't. Because I met him, and he was grilled on this when he came (at the invitation of the Young Socialists) to speak at my 6th form.

What he did "support" was negotiating with the IRA, since (and history has since proved him right) in a conflict where both sides admit they are never going to win militarily, how else do you find peace ?

In those days, it was pretty much impossible to put the record straight unless it was in person.

bellinisurge · 24/11/2019 14:55

Pretty damning photo with the IRA just after the Brighton Bomb.

derxa · 24/11/2019 14:56

And an understanding as to how physical force Republicanism came about? (Clue - it was alot earlier than 1969). Tell that to the families of the people who were killed by the IRA and the other side e.g. UDA for that matter. Did Corbyn go and talk to the UDA?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 24/11/2019 14:59

Pretty damning photo with the IRA just after the Brighton Bomb.

Was the governments meeting with IRA members in 1972 damning? I believe this was the worst year for violence during "the troubles" although happy to be corrected.
The Queen and Martin McGuinness?
Clinton and Gerry Adams? Believe their was a fragile cease fire in place at the time.

And spare me the "back bench MP" he should have been sitting on his hands nonsense.

mybrainhurtsalot · 24/11/2019 15:00

Bellini, of course you have every right to vote or not vote in whatever way you feel best for you, your family, constituency, the country as a whole and if those considerations do not all point to the same person then you choose where you draw that line.

I think you must be having a very hard time IRL as your posts have become a lot angrier. Sending some cheering flowers Flowers

I don’t agree with you that this thread is full of Corbyn-worshippers. I can think of only a couple of posters like that. Many, many other are perhaps long term Labour supporters who are not happy with the leader but feel voting Labour is the least worst option, or whose priority is to get rid of a Tory MP, others might not be Labour leaning at all but are voting tactically.

It’s all very well wishing we had a different leaders for all parties/better options available - heck I do that a lot myself and frequently rant at my DH who voted for Corbyn - but the problem is that there are no perfect options and the election is happening regardless. On 13th December (or some time later if there is no majority) come what may we will have a new PM. At present it seems most likely that this will be Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.

As an NI person I don’t think Johnson’s deal has solved the problem there. IMO the Loyalist side will kick off as the reality of a border down the Irish Sea kicks in. I think the only Brexit that would be ok for NI (and the rest of the UK) is the type of soft Brexit that Labour are most likely to negotiate if they get in. Voters will then have the chance to vote for a specific Brexit if they so choose. Or with luck we can put this whole sorry debacle behind us and focus on addressing the issues that led to the Brexit vote in the first place - that is not going to happen under the conservatives. Under them we will be out on 31st Jan and no trade deal Brexit in a year (imagine the cuts that will be needed to deal with that financial crisis).

Sounds like you rely on the NHS too (my child has complex health and SEN needs so I’m terrified of what will happen to the NHS after Brexit/a US trade deal) - aren’t you worried about this too? Surely you can’t think the two options are as bad as each other on this?

I have recently joined Labour so I will get a vote in the next leadership election - there is definitely a deputy leadership election coming up and JC is quite old - he will need to hand over the reins at some point. Maybe that’s something to consider? I actually don’t mind most of the left leaning policies but they need a credible leader and someone who will take the anti semitism seriously. They desperately need to acknowledge and listen to the people who are saying this is a problem and then do something to tackle this without resorting to whataboutery. I also despair of the red Tory/Blairite narrative - Labour needs to be a broad church and to do something about the infighting.

Again, Flowers Cake Brew and hope we can all get through the next few weeks without too much grumpiness - these threads are amazing and it would be a huge shame if long standing posters felt their views were not welcome. Tensions are rising because there is so much at stake.

This took me ages to type on my wee phone keyboard so no doubt the thread has moved on a lot.

ListeningQuietly · 24/11/2019 15:00

Corbyn is an old man who has achieved fuck all in his life other than time serving on the back benches.
If you think that who he was photographed with 25 years ago
matters more than the future of the country today
you need to give yourself a shake

derxa · 24/11/2019 15:01

You're talking about Ken Livingston DGR not Corbyn.
What he did "support" was negotiating with the IRA, since (and history has since proved him right) in a conflict where both sides admit they are never going to win militarily, how else do you find peace ? Who could disagree with that?

dreichwinter · 24/11/2019 15:01

I was somewhat despairing about the likelihood of the Tory government when DH pointed out that we would be likely to become personally significantly better off if their election promises were even part implemented.
It is totally crazy that people with so much less than us are voting to give us more so that they can carry out a Brexit that will make them even more vulnerable.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 24/11/2019 15:03

Did Corbyn go and talk to the UDA?

Apparently he met with Loyalists in the early 1990's

Jason118 · 24/11/2019 15:03

As many others on here have said Corbyn is a fucking liability. However, my hair is still on fire and I'll support anyone with a fucking enormous extinguisher to put Brexit out.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 24/11/2019 15:06

EDM - condemning Birmingham pub bombings;

www.edms.org.uk/1994-95/28.htm

bellinisurge · 24/11/2019 15:07

Yes it does matter who he was photographed with years ago. It shows a pattern of poor judgment. That continues today.
And I don't want that anywhere near No. 10. Same as Johnson should be nowhere near it.

DGRossetti · 24/11/2019 15:09

You're talking about Ken Livingston DGR not Corbyn.

I was trying to reflect the fact that What The Papers Say and the reality are not always the same thing ....