Brexit Arms: the discussion continues....

[XingMing]

I'm not promising to be the resident landlady, and I can't even hope to moderate the discussion or offer up great memes etc because I don't know how, but here's opening the next iteration....

First drink is on the house.

I’ve just called them all out as Pyramid scheme Hun bot type wankers. 🤷🏻‍♀️🤡😂

Have you seen what the hard left have been doing to Rachel Riley on twitter? Disgusting.

New thread here, for anyone who is teflon coated.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3753293-Tory-MN-round-2-a-place-for-Tories-to-gather?msgid=91865347

Morning, all!

Kettle's on again and here's a tray of plus 🥓🍞🥓🍞🥓🍞

Loved the MLM Hun Bots comments, Epic, and have put the new thread on my watching list.

Hollycatberry, as far as I can recall, the Chief Rabbi has never ever intervened at election time with a political statement and certainly not one as damning as this. He speaks the truth, as always, and he will be pilloried, as always, for not subscribing to Corbymania. I cannot for the life of me recall any election like this one - even 1979 when Maggie took over.

Anyway, here is today's Telegraph cartoon, showcasing Tony Blair's survival instinct.

Hahaha! singing

#ClassicTeflonTony

Ta for the Virtual Bacon sandwich, I’m fasting, so virtual bacon is about as good as it gets for me RN...

Fascinated by the thinking on the other side so added my place mark on the other thread.

For anyone else joining in here's a bit of classic Greg Hands leading the way:

@GregHands don’t send your fucking lying tory letters to my house you absolute fucking weapon, you have ruined my morning!!

To which Greg replied:

Sorry - we had you down as a waverer.

Howabout

For anyone sick of polls, how about the betting odds instead? I'm not a gambler but they did call the EU referendum result right.

PaddyPower Majority Odds (Previous in Brackets):
◦ Tories: 4/11 (1/2)
◦ No overall: 9/4 (7/4)
◦ Labour: 25/1 (25/1)
◦ Lib Dems: 250/1 (250/1)

There's a bit of a car crash interview going on, on BBC News with Victoria Derbyshire. A Labour MP is trying to defend Jezbollah's record on stamping out anti-Semitism in the Party. She can't answer 99% of the questions because she is "not familiar" with the details but she just knows Jezza is NOT a racist of any kind, uh uh, no way, nope.

Her name? Nah Shah.

Worrying that the odds on no overall have shifted. I am very concerned at the potential for a hung parliament.

Why is Boris continuing to lie about 50,000 new nurses? He’s been caught out over his new hospitals but continues to lie!

Epic I agree.

The decline in the LibDem vote back to Labour might yet deliver my worst case option. ie Tory minority Government delivering a LibDem manifesto with a 2nd Ref as the fig leaf.

It is also why it makes sense for arch Tory Remainers to vote Labour (why I pointed it out last night - Bear hasn't got back to me)

Worrying that the odds on no overall have shifted. I am very concerned at the potential for a hung parliament

A few people I follow on twitter are saying this too Epic (non celeb, younger Tory voters) so I am starting to worry now too. When I think 30+ percent of people could be casting their for Corbz, I wonder if we as a country now deserve a hung or minority Lab govt propped up by the SNP and Lib Dems. Maybe people need to see life under big state control to realise its not that great, with billions borrowed by Labour to nationalise companies and give free broadband to millionaires which our grandchildren's taxes will be paying off. Truly depressing.

deserve a hung or minority Lab govt propped up by the SNP and Lib Dems

God, that's an horrific thought. Happy Tuesday everyone!

I have to say, if Labour somehow con their way in, I will not be voting in their bullshit 2nd referendum. I know that’s what they want, but It would be an utter joke option anyway. What’s the point?

It's a horrible thought but it's not beyond reason to happen I guess? Problem is all the free shizz Labour are promising to give away will tempt voters, who won't think twice about who has to pay for all the borrowing because labour says there are a few billionaires that are going pay for it all. I fear John McDonnell being anywhere near the Treasury, which I think was a concern shared by others on this thread.

I won't vote in 2nd ref either Epic. There's no point as it is remain vs leaving with a "still basically in EU" deal on the ballot paper. It's a complete waste of time and money. In fact remaining on the terms we have now would arguably be better in that scenario.

I won't vote in 2nd ref either Epic. There's no point as it is remain vs leaving with a "still basically in EU" deal on the ballot paper. It's a complete waste of time and money. In fact remaining on the terms we have now would arguably be better in that scenario.

Exactly my thinking.

Also as the Brexit Party are pointing out it is a complete con from Labour. Staying in the SM and CU per their "New Leave Option" precludes them delivering on most of the rest of their manifesto.

Worrying that the odds on no overall have shifted. I am very concerned at the potential for a hung parliament.

My worry too, but you know how knowledge just doesn't stick in your head? Not being a gambler, the way odds work defeat me, every time. However, Mr Lily informs me that odds going from 7/4 to 9/4 for No Overall Majority means the odds are lengthening and therefore it is less likely to happen, whereas the odds for a Conservative majority are shortening and therefore it is more likely to happen.

Labour and LibDems are stuck in the same place. Says a lot.

What I really want to know is, how does Mr Lily know this? . We've always operated on the assumption that he is the PM in this relationship and makes all the big decisions whereas I am the Chancellor of the Exchequer and tell him whether he can afford his Big Ideas or not, and if not, to think again.

“However, Mr Lily informs me that odds going from 7/4 to 9/4 for No Overall Majority means the odds are lengthening”

You’re right, I read it wrong, probably why I was a bit shit at matched betting! 😂😂😂🤪

“In fact remaining on the terms we have now would arguably be better in that scenario.”

100% agree.

They might as well campaign on the revoke ticket if that is what they are offering...

“In fact remaining on the terms we have now would arguably be better in that scenario.”

It would give us a second go at exercising our right to leave under Article 50.

One of the many things puzzling me at the moment is whether arch-Remainers (as opposed to the more pragmatic democratic-minded ones) seriously believe that if they could only stop Brexit, we Leavers would just say ah well, never mind, we'll be good little Europeans now.

And yes, I'm aware of the parallels with ScotsNats but that referendum was settled by 55% to 45%, so any comparison stops right there.

Mr Lily is correct. It's fractions. If your numerator's getting bigger relative to your denominator then your odds are lengthening. Odds of just over 2/1 against is still about a 30% chance and a bit close for comfort for me though.

However the Labour vs Tory odds coupled with this make a Tory led hung Parliament much more likely than a Labour one - vote tactically to get Lib/Lab always end up Lib/Con. The result would be the same. Tories would ditch Boris and come back with TM plus SM and CU (basically Labour New Deal) and 2nd Ref.

I operate a lazy Dictatorship according to DH. I delegated all Christmas decoration to him and DC long ago. DD3 is desperate to get on with it. I just shrugged and told her she would have to consult DH and her big sisters as such matters were way below my pay grade.

deserve a hung or minority Lab govt propped up by the SNP and Lib Dems

sounds good. 2nd referendum, we vote "don't be ridiculous, of course we wish to stay - we don't hate ourselves that much' and Brexit is over.
Excellent.

Only in your head Pan2 but sadly also in the heads of all those similarly susceptible to Cleggmania, Blair fandom and Osbornomics.