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Brexit

Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/11/2019 18:39

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
Hoooo · 15/11/2019 16:44

CITATION

It british medical jpurnal cited in aarly 2019 that between 2010-2017 there were 120,000 early deaths due to austerity and cuts to services.

Hth .

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 16:45

Justanother - don't forget that Scottish Local Elections are not held under the FPTP system.

Forehead slap, i honestly forgot that

Hoooo · 15/11/2019 16:45

Pesky experts though...

Hoooo · 15/11/2019 16:46

The figure is, of course, much higher than that.

They are only the deaths reported by ngs trusts and hcps...

MrPan · 15/11/2019 16:48

Cendrillon - you're sounding more teeny-minded and irrelevant by the day. "Communism" accusation is worthy of the Mail headliners (not editorial).

And you wouldn't recognise such 'facts' as these if one hit you over the head with a hammer and sickle.

Mistigri · 15/11/2019 16:49

Is it true that Tommy Robinson has endorsed Johnson? I guess this means that the Tories are now islamophobic enough even for latter day kippers.

www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/boris-johnson-incapable-tory-party-islamophobia-problem

SwedishEdith · 15/11/2019 16:51

This made me laugh it is a joke in case anyone doesn't get it - they know who they are

hayls
@isamyelyah
·
17h
do you know who else forced free super fast fibre-optic internet services upon his own people? that’s right. josef stalin

runningintothesunset · 15/11/2019 16:55

Apologies if this has already been covered but I worry about Labour’s plan to raise the living wage to £10/h for everyone over 16. While being a great sound bite, I genuinely think this will lead to fewer jobs for young people.

I did the costings for my company on this today and we’d have to reduce the number of apprentices we take on every year. We’re not a terrible employer btw, the apprentices are all higher rate tax payers by the time they’re 22, but for those years between 17 and 21 they’re on a sliding scale (and they all live at home with limited expenses!) which makes it work for all of us.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 16:55

I though it was Lenin, shows what I know

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 15/11/2019 16:55

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 15/11/2019 16:57

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

prettybird · 15/11/2019 16:57

Misti - I also scroll by Grin. Saves time in these fast moving threads Wink

Jaxhog · 15/11/2019 16:58

a Government of National Unity

It sounds like a good idea but, in reality, would be an absolute nightmare. Without a clear and agreed purpose, it would be infighting even worse than the Brexit fiasco. I just can't see Boris and Jeremy agreeing on ANYTHING!!!

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 16:59

Markets warm to idea of a Labour government

www.ft.com/content/36a01cd8-ceed-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 17:00

Yes I know its from september, I only just spotted that myself, sorry all

DGRossetti · 15/11/2019 17:00

news.sky.com/story/australia-and-others-seek-compensation-for-brexit-trade-changes-11861698

news.sky.com
Australia and others seek compensation for Brexit trade changes
3 minutes

Australia is among a number of countries seeking compensation from Britain and the EU over Brexit disruption.

The Australians were backed by other countries including New Zealand, the US, and Canada when they raised the issue at a World Trade Organisation meeting on Thursday.

The country's case concerns losses in what is a $366m (£193m) annual agricultural export trade with the European Union and Britain.

In a statement reported by the Australian Financial Review, an Australian official told the WTO: "Compensatory concessions should be provided to affected WTO members for loss of market access.

"Australia cannot accept the assertion by both the EU and UK that no compensation is required."

The dispute stems from Brexit-related problems faced by Australia's lamb and beef exporters.

The European Union only allows a limited amount of agricultural produce to come in from other countries at reduced or zero tariffs.

After that, tariffs are at such a level that exporting anything further is not viable.

When Britain leaves the EU, the quotas will be divided between them and the bloc but it has not yet been revealed what the permitted tariff rate quota (TRQ) will be.

Globe,
Image: Australia and those backing it fear they will be more limited in their exports

There are conflicting ideas as to how the division will be calculated and, to make matters more complicated, the date for Britain's exit from the EU has shifted a number of times.

Australia and those backing it are worried that the calculations might leave them with a smaller export opportunity.

The Australian statement said: "It is clear the proposed modification to TRQs will lead to significant economic loss, by not only removing flexibility in where product is sent year to year, but also by rendering some TRQ allocations too small to be commercially viable."

Australia's Department of Agriculture said on its website: "The EU intends to 'split' existing agricultural WTO tariff-rate quotas between the UK and the EU-27 post-Brexit. This will include Australia's country specific quotas for beef, buffalo, sheep and goat meat, cheese, sugar and rice.

"The Australian government is currently negotiating with the EU and the UK seeking compensation as a result of the 'splits'.

"We are progressing potential changes to the administration of the EU's existing agricultural WTO tariff-rate quotas to prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit."

Mistigri · 15/11/2019 17:03

I worry about Labour’s plan to raise the living wage to £10/h for everyone over 16

Running - (1) this is an aspiration which will remain an aspiration while Corbyn does not have a majority (and the risk of him getting a majority is effectively zero) and (2) I don't think we have policy detail yet; would be surprised if this applied to apprentices still in education. Let's wait and see.

Peregrina · 15/11/2019 17:04

This isn't a new article - it talks about if Labour came to power before 31st October.

Who knows what the situation is now. In the election period things are volatile and it only takes one big gaffe for a party to scupper its chances.

prettybird · 15/11/2019 17:05

running - you'll need to redo your number crunching with £10.50/hour because that's what Javid/the Conservatives are proposing. Confused whether you believe them or not is a different matter Wink

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1199992/boris-johnson-conservative-party-general-election-minimum-wage-raise-sajid-javid

I've deliberately posted an Express link to demonstrate the Express's hypocrisy - they'd excoriated Labour for suggested £10 as disastrous for the economy, yet lauded Javid for an even higher figure as being a "boost to the economy" Hmm

Alsohuman · 15/11/2019 17:06

So now we’re pissing the rest of the world off. Bodes brilliantly for those amazing trade deals ...

tobee · 15/11/2019 17:07

*Smile
*
More sad that I erroneously perked up for a second that I'd made someone laugh than I was momentarily mistaken for Cend

Mistigri · 15/11/2019 17:09

Also, who has seen Labour's video starring Ali the immigrant who gets blamed for everything?

It's pretty good.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 17:11

Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹
@LeftieStats
· 10m
"To what extent would you support or oppose a policy providing free broadband internet to all UK homes and businesses by 2030?"

62% ~ Support
22% ~ Oppose
16% ~ Don't know

Via @YouGov, 15 November

runningintothesunset · 15/11/2019 17:12

But the conservative plan is for £10.50 / h by 2024 for those over 21. So a gradual increase and not for everyone over 16.

runningintothesunset · 15/11/2019 17:13

Misti - the Ali blaming video is really good