Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

Only 1 party has been getting millions from the Russians

Only 1 party had to squash an intelligence report of Russian interference in British politics

Correction: now 44 seats where there is genuine uncertainty over which way to vote tactically - which is more than a handful but fewer than 10% of total seats.

I honestly can't buy in to the they're all as bad as each other narrative. There has never been a mainstream party in the UK as far to the right and as authoritarian as the Conservatives are now.

On Phil Hogan - he used to be my T.D. (M.P.) He's a Kilkenny farmer and I'd say who ever posted about him being wrong in thinking that the English public (and I've deliberately said English) are the same as the Irish public when it comes to safety standards is absolutely correct.

Farming is such a huge thing here, and his political appointments have all been farming/environment. (And never what would be considered the 'big jobs', which makes me somewhat suspicious.) I don't know if he can see beyond his own bubble.

I don't really like the idea of candidates standing down. I would hope the electorate are sensible enough to know that some parties have no chance in their constituency and vote accordingly.

But what has happened with vote swap websites, which we had at the last election? If you were a LibDem voter in an area where Labour came second, you could find someone to swap your vote with.

@bellinisurge

Can I try to offer a different perspective?

I have filled a ton of paperwork, spent £££, studied for a life in the UK test most Brits would fail and gone trough an English language test, so I could have the right to a vote.

I have friends who are still going through this process, filling forms and jumping hurdles. Most of them won't be able to vote, even though they have lived and payed taxes here for many years. They are watching from the sidelines, sometimes in marginal seats, knowing their vote could make a difference, knowing they won't be able to cast it.

God knows none of us is thrilled by Corbyn or Swinson, but spoiling your ballot seems such a waste from where we stand..

I have a good friend who went through the citizenship process. I'm from an immigrant/refugee background.
Thank you for your perspective but I already have it.

Thanks @Mistigri I'm a big Jon Worth fan!

My constituency is a super Conservative/Labour marginal and tactical voting sites very clearly say that I should vote labour. Our local MP, however, is poor at best and as somebody more eloquently than me said basically just because Corbyn isn't Johnson it doesn't make him good enough to be PM.

LD's only get a very small share here so basically a 'wasted' vote, I know what I have to do really - but it's a vote for a poor MP and a party, who I;m sot sure will be a very competant government at all.

Having lived under Harold Wilson's govt, I remember it as a happy vibrant time,
Britain leading many of the radical social changes in the West - Home Sec Roy Jenkins -
where ordinary people had much better lives than their parents and social mobility rocketed

.... far more so than the imo rather forced "Cool Britannia" of the Blair years

Godawful choices, but the red corner is just for a few months or at most 5 years, then can be reversed

imo, the blue corner cannot be reversed for decades, if ever - and it would only ever be a majority govt or allied with the disgusting DUP.

In the red corner:
anti-semitism
misogyny
dodgy Irish & Palestinian friends
Lying
gross incompetence

pros:
PV with Remain
would reverse some cuts to the disabled, poor, NHS services
would improve workers' rights

In the blue corner:
Islamophobia
misogyny
dodgy Russian friends
Lying
gross incompetence

More anti:
V hard Brexit or No Deal, no PV
would maintain / increase cuts to the disabled, poor, NHS services
would roll back workers' & consumer rights

Pro:
Not Corbyn

Sorry, but this is precisely the kind of narrative that permits shock election results. Part of the reason why Brexit and Trump won and Corbyn did well last time is because the media rammed home the message that that side winning was impossible - therefore many people voted for that “impossible” outcome without believing it possible or even really wanting it to happen, as a way of expressing their feelings or signalling their identity or just sticking it to the establishment.

Agreed... The Tories were 10-1 odds-on to get a majority just two weeks out.

People (from all sides) are too prone to think that current polls are accurate, not just of current opinion but as sound predictors of where things will be in a few weeks time. They’re indications, little more.

As in those were the odds in the 2017 GE.

Remember that poster who was able to predict every single result? I think her name was Clack or Clegg or something like that. Where is she when you need her?!

Boris was supposed to put in an appearance at Glastonbury - but it seems he has bottled it as there were protestors. They are now chanting 'he hasn't got the balls.'

Meanwhile man of the people Farage (he's going to take the north you know) had to delete a tweet where he stated he was coming to us live from South Yorkshire when he was in fact ... in Hull.

Also he is very angry at the conservatives telling him to stand his candidates down. I hope they continue to knock lumps off each other fort he duration of the campaign. (It also doesn't bode well for their being able to work together in government - but hey ho.)

Jeremy Corbyn has updated his stance on a 2nd indie ref - going from 'not in the first term' to - 'after the Scottish 2021 elections'. I think that seems fair enough, as sorting a 2nd brexit ref will take until June 2020, and then we'll either brexit or stay - either way we'll need a period of stabilisation and rebuilding and launching straight into another divisive ref sounds exhausting. Everyone could do with a bit of a breather and a regroup. This way the 2021 elections are a soft indie ref - and Scottish voters are voting in full knowledge of where we eventually ended up with brexit and not just second guessing. And the SNP will know from the election results if it is worth holding a referendum and if they are likely to win it. But I would be interested to hear what Prettybird thinks. And would Nicola Sturgeon accept that compromise and so agree to support a labour minority government?

just because Corbyn isn't Johnson it doesn't make him good enough to be PM.

But there are no other options! We have to be pragmatic. It's Corbyn or Johnson and whatever your doubts about Corbyn (for me, considerable) the thought of Johnson having five years to impose himself on the country is terrifying. Whatever the alternative is, it's better.

In the yellow corner:
misogyny
dodgy 'furry' trans friends (currently suspended)
Lying
gross incompetence

Pros:
Layla's magic soul-seeing glasses

I kept getting a bad feeling about the LibDems in June - they are not the messaih ...

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/new-evidence-that-libdems-sold-voter-data-for-100000-held-back-till-after-election

UK’s data watchdog has documents to show the Liberal Democrats had a lucrative commercial deal with Remain campaign to sell voter data. Why should the electorate not know the full story before 12 December?

(contd)

Nicola has already said she won't accept that Icantreachthepretzels - she says that it is up to the Scots to decide when to hold Indyred2 - not up to WM to tell us.

And the Labour Party saying that it would depend on whether the SNP gets a majority in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections conveniently ignores the fact that Holyrood already has an Indy supporting majority from 2016 (the SNP and the Greens)

they are not the messaih

They are very naughty boys... And are a full on monty python parady act.

Nicola has already said she won't accept that Icantreachthepretzels - she says that it is up to the Scots to decide when to hold Indyred2 - not up to WM to tell us.

The principle is sound.

Now, what does NS do with a Boris/Tory majority, and no referendum ever ?

Anyone notice Priti Patels entry for the "guess who I'm going as ?" competition for CCHQ Christmas do ?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/844954/Unauthorised_Encampments_-_consultation_paper.pdf

Quite fascinating how it's quite happy to refer to Republic of Ireland laws.

For me I feel a hung parliament is the best option.

But it really don't solve this shit show.

And the idea that any party leader can work with another party is hugely laughable.

My dream scenario is Uxbridge, North Islington and East Dunbartonshire all having a collective melt down and throwing a spanner in the works. (I'll be delighted at the prospect of anyone of them going tbh).

That's my political fantasy right now. But I don't believe in unicorns....

I agree that a hung parliament is the best option. The people will have spoken (again). They did in 2017 but apparently that didn't count.
Work together to sort this shit out and then fuck off and let the grown ups tidy up the mess you make.

Having lived under Harold Wilson's govt, I remember it as a happy vibrant time,

I am tempted to say it's because we were young then. But this is my memory too - there seemed to be real progress in a lot of areas.

Whatever the alternative is, it's better.

Not necessarily. I thought when Cameron did a runner that May would be better, but she was worse, and then she got ousted and we got Johnson. If he fails to deliver the goods, the ERG will be out to knife him in the back, or front, and God knows which horror would then be inflicted upon him. We might then come to miss Johnson's bumbling ways. (Maybe not!)

There is no way to solve the shit show. It's either a Tory majority government, where Johnson and cabinet can do what they like, embrace the shit show that is brexit in its full glory. And 5 years of further shit.

Or a hung parliament. Which will be more of the same throwing the shit around like a hot potato