Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

I am not keen on Johnson, Corbyn or Swinson , I can't help feeling the country must surely be able to muster up some better leaders, but we have what we have.
Out of interest does anyone on here actually read the manifestos before deciding who to vote for ? I will admit I never have.

Whatever you think of Johnson, he's not got that same problem. All the trumpisms ARE connecting with some parts of the population and he has a personal popularity through his celebrity status that May could never emulate.
All those on here thinking that Johnson is not campaigning well. He sat calmly while people in the flood zone ranted at him. That was cathartic for them and it played well with me - a potential Tory voter.

I'm inclined to agree with Squid4.

The crucial voters are

Young voters - who are mainly left leaning.
Women - who mainly are sensible.

I can't see this cohort voting overwhelmingly for Johnson.

Nope.
She only met with pre chosen tory voters

I think people are visceral in their dislike of Johnson. Or think he's hugely entertaining and a maverick who'll stick it to the EU. Whatever. But it remains to be seen whether that makes people more or less likely to vote Tory on balance than May did.

It's not as though you can do a special XX against your candidate of choice. Or a special vote against your candidate of choice.

Anyone who votes tory needs to be very sure what they will unleash.

This isn't strictly ffs! Johnsons so called celebrity is false, just likd the rest of him.

By eck, the plain speakin an soggy Yorkshire folk gave that Boris Johnson a piece of their mind. He wants to stay away from good honest folk and stay where he belongs with petty minded suburbanites too polite to tell him to bog off.

Sorry that was confusing use of against

Opps! Apologies for the split infinitive. If mankind can boldly go then I can be excused.

Both Hooo and squid4 are correct about May

....May had meetings/photo opportunities with selected groups of "real" people/in specially selected "typical" businesses. They were almost pathetic in their awkwardness.

She was also filmed trying to canvass alongside Ruth Davidson somewhere in the North of Scotland (Aberdeenshire?): for some strange reason no-one was in

I'm no royalist, but Liz visiting the grenfell victims showed May up for what she is

Obviously Johnson is a very marmite figure but I suspect that there are still quite a chunk of voters in the middle who tolerate him but could be put off by campaign gaffes. A lot dépends on how the media report any gaffes of course, and as a media insider it does seem that Johnson has better control over how the press reports on him than May did.

But - and this isn't a forecast but a what-if - it would only take one serious
presentation error or unfortunate leak to change things. It's all very well looking a bit hapless and disorganised and ruffling your hair and waving your hands when nothing much needs doing, but if the floods disaster were to worsen (for eg) then it won't look so clever to voters.

As it is, I think LDems may let in the Tories, in several seats. They could easily attract a few thousand votes there and Swinson has given no indication that they won't campaign hard

If she sought to do this, I’d have to agree that it would reckless boneheaded stupidity on her and the LD’s part... However, to campaign hard you need an energised campaign team, which they don’t seem to have.

They may not be able to stand down, but the LDs - and Labour too (I don’t know why they seem to get an easy ride on this!) - need to focus campaign resources where it counts, and run ‘paper’ campaigns elsewhere. That’s pretty common practice I believe.

However, to campaign hard you need an energised campaign team, which they don’t seem to have.

I should have added “in the Canterbury area”.

Well, the weather isn't suddenly going to get a lot better, is it?
(Will defer to kitten on this though!)

Anyone know how many “undecideds” there are, and which way they lean. I know I could probably get this from doing my own research on polls, but I don’t have time at mo (am lazy) and wondered if others had that info at their fingertips.

Thanks @prettybird I'd forgotten about Nick Robinson lying about Alex Salmond. What an areshole.

I'm not a fan of any of any of the leaders but I'm DISCUSTED* at the BBC lying about what any of them are saying, and at bloody Laura K insinuating herself as a 'Look At Meeeeee!' celebrity gobshite. The situation's bad enough as it is.

*lighthearted

There is a mood of weariness and a lot of disengagement. On a cold, dark and possibly wet Thursday in the run-up to Christmas, a lot of folk are going to forget to go out and vote or decide to stay in the warm because they can't be bothered. These are likely to be more leavey than remainey, and more Labour than Conservative or Liberal.

How dare Jo Swinson declare that the Labour Party is not a remain Party.

Because last time we heard that 80% of people voted for parties which supported Brexit, to which Corbyn's fence sitting contributed handsomely.

I wonder to what extent where people live will matter for turnout. The smaller the community, the more heavily it votes conservative. In rural England, could the short day and bad weather play a role in turnout?

Thinking more about the LDs not standing down and forming a de facto alliance with Labour in some key seats, it’s made me consider how BP standing down from Tory seats and their apparent, though clandestine, pact put the nail
in the coffin of any consideration of voting for
the Tories.

I know many of you will be incredulous that I could have even entertained the idea, but we need to recognise not everyone thinks like
we do, and what doesn’t matter to us,
matters a great deal to others, even if you can’t begin to fathom their reasoning.

So it is with the LDs... It may not matter a jot to you if they did effectively support a Labour candidate by withdrawing. You may actively support such a move - and you may have excellent reasons to support your position (at least excellent reasons in your estimation!).

But there will be others - those for who are scarred by anti-semitism for instance, who could do support anyone who cooperated to get Corbyn elected... You may think they are daft and wrong-headed, but that won’t change their mind, and a vote is lost where it potentially counts.

As I said before, if someone is minded to vote Labour to ensure the Tories won’t get in in Canterbury, the fact a LD is standing won’t stop them... it’s not even stopping the former LD prospective parliamentary candidate!

Ds1s politics tutor has told them that the bxp standing in only labour constituencies could actually help labour...

No idea why and ds1 is sketchy...

I think because it will split the vote between tory and brexit therefore making it more likely that Labour would get a bigger share and keep the seat. From that view I wish they had kept a candidate in every constituency. Anything to reduce the Tory vote

Hmmm.
I think that's optimistic but hey...

PMK as always thanks to RTB & all contributors very weary here as well still alternating between fear & hope