Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

"aren't we in"

should have read

"aren't we in an interglacial period, given there's still (?) ice at the poles ?"

Our Quaternary prof was convinced that we’re currently in an interstadial and a global cooling period was on its way.

That was the accepted theory as a result of Milankovitch cycles. There is some discussion now as to whether warming caused by human activity can cause this to be arrested.

(Milankovic cycles describe how variations in the earths eccentricity, tilt and precession affect the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth, hence affecting warming and cooling.)

However, this hasn't a great lot to do with Brexit.

From the article re Corbyn and the Israeli Labor party-

In the letter, Gabbay said Corbyn had expressed “very public hatred of the policies of the government of the state of Israel, many of which regard the security of our citizens and actions of our soldiers – policies where the opposition and coalition in Israel are aligned”

Gabbay, who is likely to be the centre-left alliance’s candidate for prime minister at the next election, has signalled a shift to the right in recent months, backing Israeli soldiers’ actions over the shooting of protesters in Gaza and suggesting Israeli settlers should not be forced out of their homes in the event of a peace deal.

However, this hasn't a great lot to do with Brexit.

How sure are you?

How sure? Brexit is something immediate but will affect us for at least the next ten years, and possibly 40 or more. Geological time scales work on millenia...

And I'll say this, anyone who is interested in Middle East politics should be fighting Brexit.

The UK has been an emollient in the EU & consequently quite an ameliorative voice. That goes if we leave.

It's one of the oddest things about Corbyn - for me, anyway.

As a supporter of the Palestinian cause, I find it utterly baffling he would wish to cede that powerful position.

It is one of the reasons why I think he is genuinely quite dim.

The international dimension of the UK leaving the EU is the single biggest reason I voted Remain. And why I cannot bear the idea of a 'soft Brexit'. And it's why I really can't be doing with 'Lexiteers'.

You're right, DG Typo MP

Ha !
If Mikardo had ever become leader, he would have been even more of a bogeyman than Corbyn,
because Mikardo was a real leftwing firebrand who went for the throat

Anyway, my Honey cake is downstairs, so I can't take a photo for you all.

I do wish I could offer you all a slice.

It's truly a thing of wonder.

The Venn diagram of Brexit supporters and climate change deniers is an almost perfect circle.

DH knows a couple of people

Please also share the opinion of a friend of a friend on the Higgs Boson!

Thecat I was more leftwing in my student days, but even then I was pretty centrist

Nope, I would never dream of joining Labour unless it became a party of the centre instead of the left
.... and that change wouldn't be OK, because we need a party of the left, but a sensible, competent one under say Starmer

Voters should have choices left / right / centre

They have those choices now in fact, but all 3 parties are in an incompetent toxic mess, with appalling leaders

We're truly not in the best place, BigChoc.

I can't remember ever feeling this desperate and worried.

If we had proper electoral reform, then voters would have the choice of shades of opinion.

@thecatfromjapan , I too fail to understand why Lexiteers think we are in a stronger position of influence outside the EU.
It makes me inclined to think it isn't really that important. They want the UK or what's left of it to be some sort of beacon that others will follow.
That's the kindest thing I can say.

...The forgotten referendum of 2011. Clegg's price for the coalition. It was meant to be a once-and-for-all pact with the devil that would dethrone him permanently, but both major parties conspired to stifle the debate and maintain the system they like, one where the votes of around 30,000 people in sixty-odd seats determine the result of the election.

Bitching from the sidelines means you don't have the data.

Yeah ... one is a remote sensing specialist and points out that measurements used to build some climate models are fractions of the error margin. I suspect his current employer would not authorise any kind of public statement though.

The other one crunches the climate numbers (as a hobby) and has concluded that some have started with a conclusion and then worked towards it. He’s a maths specialist creating predictive models.

bellini imo, Lexiters don't think we'd have more influnce outside

Like the rightwing Tory Brexiters, they are interested in radically remaking the UK GB according to their own ideology
Both think they could do this much more easily if they were not bound by EU SM regulations & the ECJ

Both plan much more radical changes later than will be in these manifestos - watch out for the manifestos in the GE after this one
..... or if we end up with a very hard Brexit that crashes the economy, they needn't bother with manifestos, just a strongman who promises to "fix it"

The forgotten referendum of 2011 wasn't for a form of PR though. IMO we will only get that when the Tories and Labour realise that they can never get another majority..... So I have to live in hope that neither party will do so at this election.

Clegg was a naive fool in 2011

Of course Cameron was never going to bring in a PR system that would stop the Tories, in practical terms, ever again ruling on their own

Clegg should have demanded PR as the first bill to be passed, without a referendum.

Otherwise, just offer Confidence and Supply, so he could vote down bills like student fees and austerity
His party would had more power to stop things than in govt and to demand thinhs in return
.... but of course no ministerial salaries and official cars etc.

Ok - I'll pop back in another time, when maybe enough of you have agreed about what you disagree about and how you are going to either Stop Brexit or keep Remain on the Table.

I'm being kind pointing this out, not a GF, and my departure frmo this thread is RL related.

I can't deal with my thoughts on 'Lexit'.

They're locked in 'the box that must not be opened' - for now, anyway.

So.

Honey cake.

And I've been thinking a lot about 'The Story of Isaac' today.

It came up on my Twitter feed, weirdly enough. And I had to teach it the other day.

I love Leonard Cohen's interpretation - which is the one I err towards: as a story about the conflict between the ideal and the quotidian/material/familial/here and now.

I think we are at a time when we could all do with pausing, every day, to reflect on the fact that we need to struggle and strive to balance the demand of ideals and principles with the demands of the bonds and responsibilities of our human ties.

It is a struggle and a conflict that is never settled one way or another definitively. And we make a sacrifice of one or another - and occasionally, a joyous resolution & harmony, from time to time - but both matter.

Remembering that warm humanity matters, that those who oppose our ideal or principle are human and beings of love, really matters.

Likewise. Principles and ideals are worthy.

It's a struggle. And it's a human task to try and resolve it.

And as merely human, we get it wrong.

Sometimes catastrophically wrong.

I've been thinking a lot about schools I work in, that were built after the war, when I suspect there was a real turn towards cherishing the 'smaller', more quotidian values.

It's irresolvable, really.

But I guess we'll all just struggle on. Trying.

Brexit is fucking scary.

The longer this goes on, the more I think about leaving.

Not an easy thing to do st my age, with my lack of skills.

But ... 🤷‍♀️

Yeah.
I know.
I really struggle with dhs refusal to even consider leaving 3 years ago.

misti neither of DH’s colleagues are climate change deniers. They just disagree with the mathematical models being used. And I sincerely doubt either voted for Brexit given that one is French and one is Irish.

Omg! Stop talking about honey cake cat!!!
🍯 🧁

Continuity - this shows that there is room for debate in science. Much of science is 'this is the accepted theory'. Every now and then, something comes along - further research, fresh insights, to disturb the accepted theory and a new theory gains acceptance.