Brexit Arms

[DustyDiamond]

Welcome to the Brexit Arms!!

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#PrayForSally
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Julian Jessop, the author, is an independent economist

He works for the IEA, which has already been warned by the charity watchdog to stop political campaigning.

Dusty 🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾 hope your first day went well!

Also 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎊🎊🍾🍾🍾🍾 Thank you Farage!!

'' A charm of Goldfinches ''

What a beautiful phrase ❤️❤️❤️

We have vicious bully boy magpies, Robins, yellow tits, wood pigeon, the very odd collard dove, squirrels, rare fox, once had a plague of rats, shrew, hedgehog and a dear little mouse... Not that rural either.

Let's keep everything crossed that 🤞🤞 Corybn, brexits best weapon... Doesn't stand down yet!!

Oh yes more champagne on me, epic 🍾🍾🍾 lovely to see you round these parts again

Evening everyone, hope your first day went well Dusty!

Brexit candidate has announced himself in my constituency, it's the same bloke who was the UKIP candidate last time. Targeting the hordes of Labour Leavers

Limer is that a good move?
Will they vote for him?

It's all on now!

Is there any major seat on election night that would give clues as to swing away from labour in key area?
I'm not sure my nerves will take it.
I remember ref night, the disbelief and euphoria that the impossible happened.
I'm sure it's aged me

GenuineQ I think it's worth a try, IYSWIM. If there wasn't a Brexit candidate here, Labour would definitely win. Lib Dems are a very poor third place, and there's a long-standing hatred of the Tories from many people.

Strong working-class Labour constituency, but also strong Leave. Current MP is a decent bloke, but is a Remainer. And of course, nobody likes Comrade Corbyn. I definitely know of a few people who will vote Brexit instead of Labour.

I'm following all local campaigns with interest, in all honesty I expect Labour to retain the seat, but it'll be fascinating to see how it all plays out.

I have very fond memories of referendum night, I knew Leave would win, I was so convinced that I placed and won a good bet! As soon as that Sunderland result came in as Leave (the one where all the sixth-formers are running into the leisure centre with the boxes!) I knew Leave would win overall. Happy days.

Is Sunderland the one to watch then...

For the Referendum, Sunderland to me represented a classic Labour seat. I thought if Leave won there, it would win everywhere else it needed to!

Different story with this coming election, but the analysts always spend ages talking about it because it's always the first to declare a result!

Shows again (I think?) a link between Labour votes going to Brexit Party & Tory votes switching to Lib Dem

That's how it looks to me, Dusty. Significantly, 22 October - the day the HoC rejected the timetable for getting the new Withdrawal Agreement onto the statute books, thus forcing Boris to abandon his 'do or die' pledge - fell right in the middle of the polling period. We can't know from the stats how this might have affected polling responses before and after this key date but if there was an impact, it evidently wasn't big enough to knock the Tories off course.

Sunderland ❤️ - they completely gobsmacked the pundits, didn't they? It was a sweet victory for Leave.

Is there any major seat on election night that would give clues as to swing away from labour in key area?

I'm hearing that Bolsover is on the turn, GenuineQuestions. It voted 70.8% Leave. Dennis Skinner has been careful to pay heed to that result but the constituency he has represented since Adam was a lad might be ready to turn blue. That would be a shocker

From a Scottish point of view, at least Nige won't be running any candidates against our 13 or so Con. MPs, that's something. All they need to do is hold their end up against the SNP!!
NS thinks she has it all sown up since RD's resignation but she doth forget all us 1m leave voters in Scotland, a considerable amount of whom are SNP voters. Were I of that persuasion I would be voting for a leave party this election and not SNP cos. as far as indiref2 is concerned it can wait but this is our last chance to get out of the EU.

According to local analysis, Labour would win my safe Labour Northern constituency because the Brexit vote would be split. Massively reduced majority but still a Labour victory. Despite the fact the combined Tory/Faridge Party vote is likely to be higher than Labour's share.
It's a strong Leave constituency. The sitting Labour guy supported Remain and supports this 27 point plan thing Labour has now. And he's pissed people off on a local issue. And Corbyn generally.
Now that's what I call misguided.

You are facing a dire choice, Bellini, and you really do have my sympathy. Not any consolation to you now but the Conservatives have more or less already had their painful split and I think it's inevitable that Labour will do the same - just not until after this crucial election. A decent centre-left party has to emerge from it all at some point because there are swathes of voters who feel like you. And swathes of people like me who'd love to see a decent Opposition to keep the government honest.

Doubletrouble, it's a start. Let's hope the thought of a Nippy-n-Jezza coalition will cause others to stop and think. She'd call the shots - she'd beat him straight in any arm-wrestling match. It would mean two referendums: IndyRef2 and a BRINO/Remain mash-up. Ditto the LibDems: second referendum (which they've already said they'd ignore anyway) and a second go at PR.

Sigh. Does anyone seriously think this country needs another referendum?

If anyone is interested - I have the latest list of confirmed Conservative candidates. If there are constituencies you are interested in watching, happy to help. I'm keeping an eye on about ten.

Double unfortunately the average SNP Brexit supporter takes a different view. They prioritise Independence and because Scotland would have to rejoin assume they could win the argument on Brexit then.

Anyone heard what Brexit Party is proposing to do in Peterborough?

Brexit supporters who regularly visit our (Tory) MP's facebook page to slag him off for not being Brexity enough because he voted for TM's withdrawal agreement three times and BJ's once, are absolutely furious that a Brexit candidate is no longer standing in our constituency. It's been a Tory safe seat ever since the boundaries were drawn up and has sizeable pockets of Brexit supporters (retirees in the bungalow estates mostly - about as far from the dispossessed as you can get). Anyway, they've been whipped into a no-deal frenzy over the past year or so, according to their letters to the local newspaper, posts on local FB pages etc., and are now livid that they have no-one to vote for. They are posting that our MP has 'betrayed' them and are apparently 'never going to vote again'. As a Remainer, I'm delighted, but also sad that they now have no-one to vote for, although it's pin a blue rosette to a pig territory here and the Tories will win again...

That doesn't surprise me at all. Wigan, where I used to live, is "pig in a red rosette" territory but the Leave vote was 63.9%. People there are furious. And to say they're not at all fond of Jezza is putting it mildly.

This election is a second referendum in all but name and we are all being forced to take sides.

This election is a second referendum in all but name and we are all being forced to take sides.

Agree up to a point, although its fundamentally different in one major respect: in a referendum all votes are equal - it's a strict numbers game. In a PFTP election system, many people's votes won't count at all, particularly in safe seats.

In a GE we should be voting for the party we'd like to see implementing wider policies. We are not being given the chance to do this.

In a GE we should be voting for the party we'd like to see implementing wider policies. We are not being given the chance to do this.

Absolutely agree, TwoFingers. The sad truth is that Brexit is the logjam - Parliament has made it so - and the only way now is to break through the logjam so that the many other challenges facing the country (the ones crowded out by Brexit naval-gazing) can start to be tackled. I'm sick and tired of stasis.

That's a good point howabout. I see the Brexit party were second in the Peterborough By election in June so do have a good chance there, well if the Tories didn't fight it it would be s shoe in.

I think Dusty's gone to see the Peterborough Tory today. Her creme brulee blowtorch is gone from behind the bar.

The thing is, the manifestos haven't even been published yet, so if you want to vote on more than 'just' Brexit then it's probably wise to wait for them.

I'm going either Lab or LD, but then I'm a remainer (like to think I'm a nice one though!). It won't make a blind bit of difference as my MP is your typical red-trousered Tory gammon and it's pig in a blue rosette country.

I think Dusty's gone to see the Peterborough Tory today. Her creme brulee blowtorch is gone from behind the bar.

😂 Wimbledonna
That creme brulee blowtorch is going to get some hammer over the next few days. Candidate nomination papers have to be in by close of play Thursday, then it's set in stone. I've read two conflicting reports today: Nigel is considering standing down BXP candidates in Labour/Tory marginals (The Telegraph); No, he's not (the BBC). I agree it would be better to leave a clear field to BXP in places like Peterborough but I don't quite have Dusty's influence. Or blowtorch.

Has Dusty also taken the industrial-strength nutcrackers? I hope so

This time next month it'll be Election Day! Think I might sport some blue tinsel while I'm out and about that day, to celebrate both the festive season and the eventual victors

Exactly, completely and utterly what twofingers said

Its pissing me right off

Just popping in to say hi - it's a pleasant respite adjusting to the new 'lay of the land' isn't it? To have Nothing Else to Say or consider, despite what anyone else has to say or does in respect of the next GE; as quite a few of us here already decided how we shall vote.

I do know that, whatever the next GE Results produce, I shall respect that result.

Sky reporting that the Tories are on 42%, Labour on 28% and Lib Dems on 15%.

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 114
Predicted result Predicted seats
CON 39.7% 382
LAB 29.0% 185
LIB 15.6% 20