Brexit Arms

[DustyDiamond]

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Holly that is a minor technicality when it comes to the SNP. 2m people voted NO to Independence in 2014. The SNP polled 1.5m in 2015 GE and only 1m in 2017 GE and lost their Holyrood majority in 2016. Yet they think they have a new mandate to overturn the 2m NO.

The latest polling is 50:50 Yes/No just as it was the night before Indyref1.

Latest Scottish GE Opinion polls have SNP 39% (2017 GE 37%), Tory 21% (29%), Labour 19% (27%), and LibDem 13% (7%).

Will be interesting to see if the LibDem vote holds up or drifts back to the Tories. There may also be a drift from the SNP to Labour.

Good points @howabout gives lots to think about in terms of how complex the landscape is in Scotland, yet the SNP keen to push independence and use any justification. I saw the BBC article that shows their votes had peaked in 2015. I didn't realise they had fallen since.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49594562

I wondered briefly why Head Girl Jo hadn't tried to broker a Remain Alliance in Scotland the way she did in Wales. After all, if she's comfortable with Plaid Cymru's pro-independence stance, it would be reasonable to assume she would be similarly sympathetic to the SNP's. Then I remembered.

Nicola Sturgeon is obviously satisfied she has some sort of deal with Jezza about IndyRef2. She doesn't need Jo And The Gang. They're strictly Sunday League.

I actually have great sympathy for pro-Union Remainers in both Scotland and Wales. Who speaks for them?

I wonder if the Remain alliance will backfire in some cases?
I was intending to vote Green as usual this election. I am a Leave voter in a normally safe Tory seat and I vote Green, not because I agree with all of their policies but to show my concern for the environment and push it up the government agenda.
As a Leaver, I am obviously not going to vote LibDem but I've just found out I will not have a Green candidate to vote for this time, so I will vote Tory.

Interesting point, Wimbledonna and there are significant numbers of people in your situation.

Re Scotland - Comrade Nicola just bangs on about Indyref2 all the time. Oh, and she also occasionally mentions how much she hates Westminster.

I've just looked up when Labour's "Fighting Fifty" were elected in Scotland - it was 1987. A long time ago, but Labour have basically lost everything in Scotland to the SNP over the last 30-odd years, but that wasn't difficult, Labour did nothing at all for Scotland, so the SNP just calmly pointed that out and collected the votes.

Certainly a complex situation this time around, Indy Yes/No, Leave/Remain now in the mix, plus all the political parties. You'd need about 4 dimensions to draw a Venn diagram to show all that

That's exactly the sort of choice many voters will have to make, Wimbledonna.

There are those who think this election is not just about Brexit. Head Girl Jo has made it all about Brexit. That forces people to sacrifice concerns that might also be important to them.

Very liberal. Very democratic.

It is interesting how difficult it is for people to choose who to vote for.

The main 2 parties are pretty much as bad as each other IMO, for differing reasons.

The other parties don’t stand a chance of getting a majority government and we’ve proven we don’t do coalitions very well in the country

So how do you square that with people who have differing views on so many subjects, not least Brexit.

I mean it really can’t be in the overall interests for a lot of Leavers to vote Tory.

For example, it’s becoming quite apparent on the WM thread that people who are on the same side re Brexit have massively differing opinions on just about every other political subject.

So where does it end?

“So where does it end?”

Probably only when we get Brexit done, Bear. I do realise that's not everybody's happy outcome but the fact is that it's taken all the political bandwidth for the last three-and-a-half years and it's brought the country to festering point. In the meantime, the country desperately needs a PM and government ready and able to press on with other huge concerns that affect our everyday lives.

OMG, Epic! That's our local town centre!

From today's Telegraph:

Hopefully soon. Ive had enough of all this division and nastiness. The whole business is so toxic, hopefully, if we do leave in january (this time), remainers can understandably mourn the loss of the EU membership and ultimately begin to move on, the Farage lot can get over themselves and deal with the reality of compromise and us leavers can breathe a sigh of relief that democracy has been respected as promised.

Hopefully the pain will ease, we will rebuild personal divisions and begin to make the best of our independence.

As for politics in general? Well, it was always knarly, but hopefully a little less so in 5 years time when the dust has begun to settle.

Sorry that last post was also to bear...

The trouble is singing, Brexit won’t be ‘done’ for years and years

The consequences of it are going to need dealing with certainly through the next 5 years, and that’s just sorting the FTA.

And if we don’t get that agreed by the end of the transition then we’re back to no deal, and even more time where Brexit just takes up most of the agenda

And for what?

Thanks epic, my post to singing applies equally to your response too - Brexit won’t ever be ‘done’

🐻 - for me, at the moment, even if it wasn't a Brexit election I would vote Tory.

I don't like the Lib Dems woke politics one bit, I don't like the far left policies of Labour & I def don't like Corbyn. I don't vote green because they're not my bag.

I like the look of the SDP as they seem to have the sort of balance of left & right that appeals to me

I liked Labour under Blair initially, Lib Dem under Nick Clegg.

I like small state, sensible tax policies, equality of opportunity & I like the safety net of the welfare state & I'm pro union

I am against state interference & nannying, punitive tax policies & think that equality of outcome is a flawed ideology.

At the moment, I think that of the main parties, the Tories best represent me regardless of Brexit - this may not be true next GE though - no party has my loyalty

I'm not so sure it will take that long, Bear. The political declaration has already had significant changes to it and if followed through, will give us a Canada+ type of FTA, which is a good outcome all round in my view. At the same time, you have to consider the pressures placed on the EU from its own member states to reach a deal. Germany is teetering on the brink of recession and it is, whether anyone likes it or not, the economic engine of the EU.

The political will to reach a FTA will determine how quickly it's done and dusted. In the meantime, the EU is not even our most important export market.

Once we leave in legal terms, everything changes. All the pieces on the board change.

What Lily said 🙌

I actually think this is a much better situation than 2010. I'm pretty sure no-one voted LibDem in the expectation of a Con / LibDem Coalition. However the result was almost inevitable in hindsight since GB and GO spent most of their campaigns agreeing with Nick.

At least there is clear water between the parties now giving some semblance of choice.

Dusty, not that different to me, politically, then. I'm somewhere between classic liberalism and One Nation Tory.

“Brexit won’t ever be ‘done’”

I didn’t say it would, but the initial ripping off of the proverbial plaster would be, IYSWIM. Then we can leave the parlimentarians to at least make some attempt to begin the jobs that they are paid and mandated to do, beginning with finally getting on with the business end of Brexit, trade talks etc...

“🐻 - for me, at the moment, even if it wasn't a Brexit election I would vote Tory.”

I think I agree with this.

Sorry dusty, meant to include a larger section of your post for context, because you summed it up pretty well for me.

Am enjoying watching all the videos now circulating of Boris totally messing up in NI yesterday - he’s all talk and no substance - he doesn’t even understand the major details he has signed up to in his so called great deal! He’s no chance of getting a majority government - he’s going to have to do a deal with someone but don’t think he’s any friends left in any other parties?

Haven’t seen the video Parker sorry, been too busy the last few days, hopefully someone else has? .

Then we can leave the parlimentarians to at least make some attempt to begin the jobs that they are paid and mandated to do

This is clearly where we differ in our expectations of what they will actually do, given recent experience.